Bridge Jumper at OP

[km]

Last Saturday Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn brought out some big Show bets on 3/5 favorite Afleet Alex. He finished last, seemingly eased by Velasquez. Big payouts for grandma -

Winner Greater Good paid the same to Show as to Win, $11.20
2nd choice at 8/5, Rockport Harbor paid $9.80 to Show
3rd place finisher paid $31.60 to show in the 6 horse field, he was 60/1.

While it may be a good guess that the bridge jumpers are really money laundering, I tend to doubt that theory since it happens so infrequently and almost always on a Stakes race with a short field and a very heavy favorite. This one was a little more risky with 6 horses and a strong 2nd favorite, even Dr. Z wouldn't have recommended it. But it was not a mega bet with those payoffs.

[overdog]

Hi Ken and gang;

Just returned from my 2nd tourney at the Orleans, and my first as an HTR subscriber.
Managed to win some day money and came in 76th.

Bet Easy Earl at BM in the 7th on Sat. Came second at 116.30 to 1. Took him because the race was dreadful and he was the only horse on parade who didn't look like he was walking to the dentist. If only-----horses and anteaters could be cross-bred to get longer noses. (About 25 ft longer in this case.) Hey---I guy can dream!

I was and still am involved with Professor Bill Ziemba. Was part of the team developing the Dr Z place/show system. Not having seen the pools in the Afleet Alec race, it's hard to know what our equations would have said to do. Clearly the only horse likely to have been designated as a "Dr. Z" bet would have been the 2nd fave. But be aware the equations are HIGHLY problematic in a bridge jumper type show pool. Makes FAR more sense, especially in small fields to make win bets on ALL other contenders. Dutched preferably. My method in those races was win AND place on all other contenders. Over time that method had the best ROI on total investment. Part of the reason NOT to bet show on all others is that other wise or pseudo-wise guys are doing the same thing.

Great to be part of the HTR community.

And thank you Ernie for your many kindnesses and help with intricacies of the software.

[Donnie]

Welcome aboard Fraser! I like your wish of anteaters! Guess maybe you wouldn't wanna give them a tongue-tie then, huh? Hopefully we will see you in July for the seminar and tournament!

[overdog]

My consulting practice is such that I never can plan too far ahead.
But would love to go and meet more of the gang.

Good luck always.

[hurrikane]

Hey Over,

sue was dreaming on him too. #3 ped, 2nd start 1st lasix and dropping.
Was exciting. Only saving grace was having real money on him across the board.

I think Ken said even Joe Hinsen was showing emotion...that would be a first.

nice job in the tourney