TLC Screen question

[ggpagels]

Before the last upgrade there was an asterisk(*) denoting a contender(K number >=100 or Pscan-diff <= -4.0) in Section 1. Was that removed because of lack of room with new changes or a bug?
:confused:

[km]

Jerry - removed from TLC on purpose.

That item was requested a few years ago by FRED4NOW (Rick from SoCal). I was happy to comply, but after awhile we realized it didn't have much value statistically beyond using the K or Pscan alone.

All is not lost if you want to test it though. It is still tagged in FIELD 124 in HX4.

And FRED4NOW? Real nice guy, but no longer with HTR. He says he split from playing the horses and prefers surfing now!

[ggpagels]

No problem. I saw it was still in the export. One more thing. I can't find what difference in fps is necessary for a horse to obtain a exclamation point(!) next to its rating on TLC sreen 3 and the velocity screen.

[km]

Off the top of my head the (!) is for 0.50 differential with the 2nd horse. But it may vary depending on the factor.

We also discovered this is nearly useless. The rankings clearly trump any separation we try to make with the velocity f-p-s.

[Glen]

Yeah, too back Rick4now is no longer playing the horses...An excellent capper who started HTR w/ no previous horse picking experience...Learned it all from running HTR numbers.

[Donnie]

...and he had some great insights and ideas. Hope he's out there catching some big ones!

[fred4now]

Ahh, KM your not paying attention to your subscribers. I signed back up a week ago. Just couldn't resist all the good numbers. :p

I spent the last year playing with the numbers a little, and think I have found some new insights into this game. Was pretty fun, without the pressure of betting but now it is time to make some moolah.

[Donnie]

Welcome back F4N! I thought you had said that in a private email...but I thought maybe KM knew something I didn't. Looking forward to your fresh perspective!

[km]

Hi Rick - great to have you back! Sorry, I really didn't know, HDW sends me the list in the middle of the month and I often not aware unless the subscriber tells me they have returned.

Anyway, that was good timing on this thread. Now we need you to come up with a new contender selector :)

[tbrown]

I'm still using the older version because the * is my favorite tool for getting the race down to conteders at a glance. As I've said before, I am pretty lazy and looking at one * is easier than looking at two factors! :eek:

[MikeDee]

You can try to get away from the horses, but they have a way of sucking you back in.......welcome home Rick!!!

[Glen]

Haha...that was pefect timing Rick. Welcome back long lost rick for now.

[hurrikane]

so, does that mean the * goes back in?

welcome back surfer dude. did you get a real board or are you still riding that whale?

And by the way....check's in the mail..as of Monday. Hope that's not too late.

[fred4now]

I haven't used the * contender feature in along time either.

Surfing this winter has sucked, actually good waves, but with all the rain the water is really poluted. Haven't been out since December. And yes I have moved to a performance board.

Thanks Hurrikane, I will watch for it.

I redid my db a while ago to make it even more friendly for research. This access stuff has really paid off. Even wrote some programs for work for estimating.

The one thing that I keep coming back to is that simpler is better.

[km]

It's nothing to put the (*) back in the TLC, but the key to contender selection is the ratio between the

1) the number of contenders identified

2) the number of overall race winners from the contenders

Basically an exercise in Impact Value assessment.

The problem with the (*) was the high% of horses that were identified as contenders.

The ideal contender selector will tag less than 50% of the horses while getting 80% of all race winners. The (*) tagged over 60% of the horses if I recall. But did pick about 85% winners.

Example K=1, 2

About 24% of horses get tagged with K=1,2
They win 51% of all races.
An excellent ratio, but we are looking for 80%+ of all race winners with our contender select.

K 1-4 get 77% winners from 49% of all horses, so it nearly accomplishes the task.

So to discover a better contender selector: keep the number of marked contenders under 50% of all horses. This may vary from race to race. The second goal is to have 80% or more of all race winners captured by these contenders.

[Paladin]

Good to see you're back Rick !! Enjoyed reading your old posts. Even tried to email you many,many moons ago.
Have you tried the new surfboard with the hydrofoil?, that picks you up out of the water and almost flys?

[fred4now]

Thanks Paladin, no I just have a plain ol tri fin pointy nosed board. They use those up in Santa Cruz at Mavericks though. 40 foot waves are a little out of my range :eek: