Have fun with FR1

[MikeDee]

last week Monday thru Sunday at tracks as shown
Fr1 rank1
PL5 data
all race types
off odds of 5-1 or better.
TRK nWin nBet Win% aMut aBet aWon aP/L ROI
AP 3 19 16% $67 $38 $200 $162 426%
BMF 2 18 11% $58 $36 $116 $80 222%
CBY 0 13 0% $0 $26 $0 ($26) -100%
CRC 3 32 9% $27 $64 $80 $16 25%
CT 0 22 0% $0 $44 $0 ($44) -100%
DEL 3 17 18% $24 $34 $71 $37 109%
DMR 2 21 10% $14 $42 $27 ($15) -36%
ELP 1 24 4% $14 $48 $14 ($34) -71%
EVD 1 22 5% $16 $44 $16 ($28) -64%
FE 3 20 15% $21 $40 $63 $23 57%
FL 1 23 4% $16 $46 $16 ($30) -65%
FP 0 13 0% $0 $26 $0 ($26) -100%
GLD 2 15 13% $19 $30 $38 $8 27%
HST 1 8 13% $24 $16 $24 $8 50%
LAD 2 24 8% $19 $48 $38 ($10) -21%
MNR 2 30 7% $14 $60 $28 ($32) -53%
MTH 2 29 7% $25 $58 $49 ($9) -16%
PEN 3 20 15% $82 $40 $245 $205 513%
PHA 2 17 12% $17 $34 $33 ($1) -3%
PIM 0 18 0% $0 $36 $0 ($36) -100%
PRM 0 12 0% $0 $24 $0 ($24) -100%
RD 0 17 0% $0 $34 $0 ($34) -100%
RET 3 23 13% $22 $46 $65 $19 41%
RKM 1 23 4% $17 $46 $17 ($29) -63%
RP 1 13 8% $49 $26 $49 $23 88%
SAR 1 27 4% $16 $54 $16 ($38) -70%
TDN 4 16 25% $25 $32 $99 $67 209%
WO 2 21 10% $16 $42 $32 ($10) -24%
YAV 0 7 0% $0 $14 $0 ($14) -100%
Total 45 564 8% $1,128 $1,336 $208 18%

[Carl]

Mike,

A fun friend whom I will refer to as the richer cousin of this play is the horse that is rEV1 in HTR and rESP1 in IMPACT.

Here is the results of all such animals for a three month period, no odds filter, no surface filter, no off days filter, no nothing. Just a two factor query, Ev1 and ESP1.

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report Jan 1-March 30 2001
All races all tracks all surfaces
Ev1 ESP 1 both ranked 1.
20-Aug-01
Total Bets 4650
Total Amount Bet 9300.00
Wins 1070
Pct. 23.01%
Amount Won 9270.30
Profit/Loss -29.70
Pct Profit Loss -0.32%
Avg. Payout 8.66

Now it doesn't always test this well, but for a two factor query only over a three month period I thought this was amazing.

later,
Carl

[Ron]

Mike;

Pretty interesting update. Thanks for posting it.

I wonder if the zero return tracks taken from the small sample will
continue there negative returns? (any chance to test there long term
patterns?)

If so, I wonder if the positive return tracks will continue there
lucrative ways as well? ( Is it possible to track there last 6 month or so activity?)

If so,....what if one just spot played the Ev1 friendly tracks over the last
year or so?

Ron

[Ron]

Carl;

This response is similiar to the one I posted to Mike, but I'm wondering
if you have a short list of EV1 "stingy" tracks that one would be best served
by not wagering on FR1's?

Ron

[jackad]

Now will someone suggest combinations of factors with FR1 (MikeDee) that will win at a higher frequency than 8% or with Ev1 and ESP1 (Carl) that will actually show a reasonable PROFIT rather than just an amazingly small loss?

Jack

[MikeDee]

Carl
Agree with you on your 2 factor query. After you have been doing this for a while you begin to realize how good break even results are when you compare to the mountain of stuff that is big time negative. Anything that can show a breakeven on a large sample all race types and only one or two factors is quite good.

Jack - What usually happens as you try to do various combinations and filters is that the aveage mutual drops as the win percentage goes up. The more you backfit with filters the more likely it is that your spot play will not repeat with the same good results that you see in the backfits.

Ron
Carl and I have a running discussion on whether the factors are really track specific, I still am inclined to think that there are some tracks that are fr1 dogs, but on the other hand every dog has its day just when you decide to stop playing one, the 30-1 fr1 princess will come home. Don't know if they really are or not.

[Carl]

"Amen" to what Mike said.

Jackad,

You and I had the conversation of "what other factors make EV1 profitable" under another thread, where I posted the results of two spot plays that had been highly profitable (over 50%) five quarters running then went into the tank. Remember? Well, one of those two plays is as of last night 0-24 during the month of Aug so far and I am glad I am not playing it. Would you have been happy with me if I would have given it to you at the end of July as a "sure thing"? I think not. (I know I wouldn't be happy with you if you gave it to me, I would rather be cleaning up lice or crabs that chasing a 0-24 spot play than may or may not turn around hehe.)

And if you think betting the horses is ever going to be like "putting money in the bank" I don't think so. The reason Hurrikane and I suggested you should continue working on developing your own spot plays is that you want to know some things about them you can only learn by growing them yourself before you put money on them.
1) What kind of run out is "normal".
2) What changes in the way people bet is affecting my spot play (up or down)?
3) Is it track, class, sex specific?
4) How do I best bet it?

Does this post make sense to you? If not, post back and I'll try again.

later,
Carl

[Glen]

Originally posted by Carl
I would rather be cleaning up lice or crabs that chasing a 0-24 spot play than may or may not turn around hehe

Very true Carl. Experienced both situations...Cleaning up crabs or lice only takes a couple of days and about $15 bucks worth of snake oil. Where as 0-24 spot play cost hundreds and last a months...Gimmie crabs over 0/24 spot play any day of the week...CRABS RULE!

[Ron]

To phrase it another way;.....There is no magic bullet.

However, I've come to believe that experience, skill, intuition, patience ,money management
and having a flare for mixing art and science together will make one a consistent winner.

Ron

[JimG]

Originally posted by jackad
Now will someone suggest combinations of factors with FR1 (MikeDee) that will win at a higher frequency than 8% or with Ev1 and ESP1 (Carl) that will actually show a reasonable PROFIT rather than just an amazingly small loss?

Jack

Jack: So what you really want is someone to GIVE you a winning system that you can begin playing from and profiting immediately. It just doesn't work that way. First of all, if someone using HTR has built winning methods, they have done that by WORKING with the various factors. Why would they give it to you, me, or their mother for that matter? After all racing is pari-mutual by nature. However what you will find on this board are extremely knowledgeable players who put their money down day after day at tournaments and regular playing using HTR. (and no, I am not talking about me)

What I have found is that the users here will help your learning curve with the software immensely and give some good ideas for YOU to explore and WORK with. Best of luck.

Jim

[hurrikane]

Jack,
I've been thinking about your 'plight'....maybe the place to start is to tell us about your handicapping background and what you have done before and then maybe we can direct you to the things in HTR that can help you build on that. That is how I started....first with the trainer/jockey work ups and I still use that daily...I knew nothing of velocity..just a buzz work to me..I was a speed fig/t/j guy..and it worked....then learning about fr1 and esd... db...then other aspects of velocity..frankly I still don't understand it completely. Thing is, people up here pick a lot of the same horses for different reasons...if we know where you are starting from then we can help you find the things to build your knowledge base and stretch the envelope...that is the greatest asset of this board. That is what I love about HTR and the folks up here..they make you think..they make you stretch the envelope!