HTR Shines

[tbrown]

Finger Lakes is having a two-day handicappin contest. Pick winners only, get points 5-3-1 for win, place, or show. 16 races total.
HTR gave me 5 winners and 3 seconds for the first round. I used HTR to pick two horse per race, as per the rules, in case of a late scratch. There were 5 top-two exacta in the mix as well. This program is really something after you get the hand of it.

[jackad]

Care to share your approach to these winning selections? IT WILL BE APPRECIATED.
Jack

[Ron]

Tom;

I agree with you that Finger Lakes is a track that's generally well suited to the HTR \ velocity method.

In certain races the velocity figures are so strong that sometimes it's like shooting fish in a barrel.

I usually prefer PL5 as my mode of choice, but at the Finger, one of my favorite spot plays there is using the PL1 FPS figs with the cheap maiden claiming races. I pay special attention to the FR3\ FR3 FPS figs.
Also, I've found that when PL1 AND PL5 FPS figs show the same horse,it's hammer time:)

Good luck with the contest.

Ron

[Ron]

Jackad;

Check out the MPH thread in this section. Tbrown posted a Finger Lakes spot play there that looks to be a pretty solid approach.

Ron

[tbrown]

Finger Lakes Approach-
I had to have just number of winners, places, or shows , so I took the highest winning facctor in both win and show, which was Prob%, over the last 30 races at FL.
Then I have very tight pace model to use. For sprints, top two f2 and f3 are clicking good and for routes, AP and SP with a strong FX is prefered. I only used recent data becasue I wanted the maximum number of wins and places, not value.
On to day two.......

(PS, yes, for M-Claimers, I always use P1 or P2. When I check the model, I use whichever is the best at the time-last 20-30 races).

[ERNIE2]

let me recommend that you go one step more and look at males and females alone.....
Example: at FL last 30 races thru 8/18/dry dirt races only:
males and females PL 5.....VEL1= 50%......VEL2=(+17%) 67% ...r.o.i $1.47 and $1.13
when alone Males VEL1=47%......VEL2=(+23%)70%....r.o.i $1.67 and $1.10
while Females VEL1=37%.....VEL2=(+13%)50%.....R.O.I. .90 AND .68
Printing the models at least once a week is a habit I have gotten out of.....seeing your results I'm wondering why I quit doing it...........maybe I get to many tracks and to many choices!!!!
Good Luck in the contest....ERNIE

[tbrown]

Contest update. Day Two.
HTR nailed the first three races on the card. Looked like easy street for the contest. I was in third place going in.
Then, the rains came. Not just rain, build-an-arc-and-get-the-animals-together-by-twos rain.
All my selctions were already turned in, nothing to do but sit back and wathc the endless parade of "not-my-horses" come home. Oh well, I have now ween the power of HTR and its models. I will be back.

[tomcat]

'way to go Bulldog!