'World Series' Tournament Sim

[km]

Looking over the results of the Gold Coast and Orleans tournaments this past year I was able to construct a possible bell-curve scoring scenario using the rules for the "World Series of Handicapping" to be held in January and run it through VB random number loops.

Competition days = 3
Plays per day = 11
Scoring $20 WP (CAP $40/$20; 10% BONUS)

Below are the final top 30 players (theoretical prize winners) in the 1000 player simulation.

Notice that two sim players exceeded our 2500 winner estimate and pretty much blew away the field. All prize winners had to score above 2000 except the 30th place. More than 400 players were unable to score above 1000 total points. Notice the balance in the top 30 here with regard to daily scoring. Other players had strong single day scores (1000+) but were unable to crack the top 30 if they goosegged (zero points) one of the three days. It looks like it is critical to score some points each day. Getting shut out on day 1 is a disaster that requires the player to begin stabbing at longer shots. As Donnie noted in his recent post, those 11 picks dissolve quickly if shooting for bombs.

Player# -- DAY1 -- DAY2 -- DAY3 --- TOTAL
#345 1307 575 809 2691
#969 1466 616 484 2624
#195 184 1048 1045 2362
#665 814 665 801 2342
#281 1223 477 559 2314
#511 887 698 643 2311
#160 1118 523 571 2308
#820 555 698 921 2253
#685 612 883 646 2225
#350 592 974 572 2219
#688 940 664 530 2209
#397 796 596 740 2195
#249 680 719 761 2192
#287 719 933 456 2139
#267 1283 469 288 2136
#421 494 1110 470 2134
#878 1168 498 431 2122
#894 643 353 1000 2096
#640 705 770 562 2094
#813 1030 889 86 2092
#828 1106 273 594 2056
#580 472 819 712 2049
#657 368 808 815 2047
#964 439 651 819 2037
#308 809 793 357 2033
#101 1011 199 727 2020
#778 446 934 516 2008
#634 1118 533 310 2007
#949 1154 228 549 2005
#884 609 534 705 1996

[km]

Sorry I had a slight scoring error with the daily totals adding up to the final total, they are all off between 1-9 points, no big deal, and the final totals are correct.

I just ran another simulation correctly for the 1000 players and here is how the top 30 finished. Notice that one sim player really went ballistic in this one and scored over 3000. That could easily happen in realtime too.

The top single daily score for all 1000 sim players here was 1680. That is the equivalent of scoring 16,800 points at the Gold Coast in one day with 11 tries (remember, you get 15 plays at the GC contest). The Median Player in this contest (finished 500th) scored about 1100 points. No player that scored a zero on any single day was able to crack the top 30.

#412 1483 732 798 3013
#986 684 1329 449 2462
#226 822 1060 574 2456
#508 712 781 946 2439
#014 688 1017 705 2410
#205 663 1083 614 2360
#701 1209 328 757 2294
#761 293 1680 294 2267
#123 653 741 869 2263
#684 866 809 577 2252
#584 639 764 844 2247
#181 533 961 740 2234
#299 1056 814 362 2232
#043 418 861 915 2194
#438 587 1003 601 2191
#801 696 249 1236 2181
#749 315 915 921 2151
#216 691 470 968 2129
#657 975 925 228 2128
#754 420 359 1343 2122
#851 205 1120 793 2118
#403 362 1060 682 2104
#927 778 1044 242 2064
#318 1203 352 491 2046
#947 782 335 912 2029
#763 975 228 810 2013
#032 596 714 698 2008
#997 677 477 848 2002
#983 270 1030 660 1960
#641 498 505 926 1929

[hurrikane]

Nice job Ken. I think 3k is the target. I'm just not sure you can get there playing one ticket.

[Donnie]

I fear the top scores in each of these simulations had more than one ticket working....for a select few it will be business as usual....for the others, it's gonna be a tough row to hoe! At least there will be a leader board at work....

[Mayo]

As some of you may have read a comment I posted a few weeks ago about this very thing of having so few picks each day. We are all use to having 36-40 picks spread over several entries. We would throw caution to the wind a play anything with so much as a blip on the HTR radar. With only 11 plays per day you start second guessing yourself and guarding these picks like they are gold. Many of us at the NTRA talked about this last year and all came to the same conclusion. As most of you know, the NTRA has 15 picks per day (8 mandatory and only 7 self select). With only 11 you really have to think about it and pick your spots. The best strategy (especially with the caps) is to probably play horses between 6 and 10 to one and try to hit about 3 to 4 per day for the first two days and hope you are in close contention. Then adjust based on your standings going into the final day.

Also, many of you may want to pay the extra money and buy a spot for your wife or girlfriend and have extra plays. Hinson will have a least 3 and maybe as many as 5 entries. Those with only one entry will be at a huge disadvantage.

After all, other than a pick 6 carryover (where you have to deal with the syndicates) how often can you you put up $1000 to win a Half a Mil. Is this a great game or what?

Mayo

[AlanLN]

Well, at least Joe Hinson will have "only" 3-5 entries and not 15 or so! :)

Ken,
Can you plug my entry into that simulator and see where I finish? That way I'll know about how many more points I need to improve to win it. ;)

[km]

Alan Noring wins $500,000 first prize in simulated handicapping contest on HTR bbs!
I'll have to pay you in Monopoly money though Al.

I agree with Donnie and Mayo about the 11 pick single entry as basically a panic attack.

Very very difficult to lose the first 6 or 7 picks on day-1 and now realize that a zero-out is likely to happen. Knowing full well that a goose egg on day-1 is also a kiss of death for your chances of winning the whole contest and probably cashing at all.

At that point most players will certainly discard the game plan and shoot for the moon. Certainly they will panic on day-2 if starting out with zero. But playing nutso with 50/1 shots on Day-2 is strictly to try and get back in the contest as there is no day money for the successful. They may have a lucky day-2, but so what, with zero points from day-1 they have to repeat it on Saturday.

Does this contest boil down to those with 500 or more points after day-1 ? Almost.
Looking at the second sim I posted, player #195, who finished 3rd overall, was the only one in the top30 w/ total under 500 after the first day. But he had to score back to back 1000 point days to finish so well, and he was the only player in the entire sim to accomplished such a big comeback.

We'll discuss various methods to insure that we get those points on day-1 in the January newsletter. Keeping in mind that day-1 is a Thursday. Not a problem at GP; but the other tracks, particularly those in CA will be have their worst card of the week on a Thursday in late January.