Saratoga Dutch

[George]

Thought I would explain the method have been using at Saratoga
in our selection contest. Have used the same method with success
at several tracks.

Play will produce a steady 20 to 30 percent return while playing
two horses. Hit rate is not high because if you "win" every race
playing two horses win percent is only 50%.

Key to the method is to use the modeler to identify race types
at specific tracks that have minimum 80% win rate for top four
ranked horses in 2 different HTR factors.

For example, at Saratoga non maiden claimers on dirt (route or
sprint), exceed 80% wins on top 4 for both HTR number and K number
when using Pace Line 3.

The process:
1) PL3
2) CONTENDERS are top 4 HTR number horses
3) Of those 4 identify the 2 best ranked on K factor
4) Of those 2 play the one with LOWEST MLO
5) Of the 2 worst K ranked play the one with best TRN win% (scr 8).
6) If item 4 above is a tie pass race
7) If item 5 above is a tie pass race

The logic:
1) The 2 "best" will be heavily bet so can only play one and have
a chance to make money. Go with one favored by trackman.
2) Of the two longer priced go with the best trainer


Using the above have played 49 races so far at SAR and maintained
a 31 percent profit. At Sar am also playing dirt/alw and turf/alw
using HTR/K for turf and HTR/PSCN for dirt/alw.

Would appreciate feedback pro or con from anybody playing or
improving this. Would advise a strong paper checkout before
wagering on it at your track(s).

[jackad]

George,
Two questions:
What do you do when the modeler shows a minimum of 80% wins for more than two factors?
Which PL mode should be preferred when using the modeler?
Thanks.
Jack

[George]

Jack,
PL is mostly a personal preference with most of us evenly divided between PL1 and
PL5. PL1 reflects current form and uses last race when it can. PL5 uses 2 "best"
and will sometimes go back quite a ways. For my dutch play am using PL3 which
is average of best 2 out of last 3 races.

Don't see more than 2 with 80% in top 4 very often. When I do, tend to use K or
PSCN or AP with HTR number if it qualifies. I have the most confidence in HTR, K,
PSCN, AP, ACL in that order so tend to go with them.

[George]

Jack,
Did not give a real explanation when I referred
to factors preferred above. Skipped over a few
that usually show high hit rate.

Prob% is heavily related to MLO and in most cases
will correlate with it. Don't like it for same
reason I don't like the MLO which is MLO may vary
over time quite wildly due to it being done by
different people as meet goes on. Prob% receives
much of it's "weighting" from the MLO so inherits
the fluctuation.

POW is related to PER which is normally overbet.
So out they go.

That leaves the factors mentioned earlier in the
thread plus one good one I left out. VEL is a
measure of "all" pace factors and can be a very useful factor. I rate it just below PSCN.