News from KM / December

[km]

December newsletter will be out by Thursday afternoon. One and only topic this month is the "XFAV" (extreme favorites). They win 40% - 50% (not 33%) and pay an ROI much higher than regular favs, and this with a large sample size so they make excellent fodder for spot plays and robot testing.

What about beating them? You'll see how hard I tried. The XFAV is tough to beat and extremely hard to keep out of the money.

All the stats and facts, lots of charts and tables and research ideas.

No HTR2 upgrade this month, we'll have another after the new year.

[Rick]

HTR Monthly Report for Dec 04 can be downloaded from the members' site (http://htr.horsedata.com/)

HTR Monthly Report for Nov 04 can be downloaded from the HTR Library (http://www.homebased2.com/km/library.htm)

[CC Brown]

Just read the Dec News letter and it puts some things in "quantitative" perspective. I have always believed you cannot win betting on the very low odds horse so then I end up trying to beat it! Now I believe I have a much better understanding of WHEN I should try to beat it. The other races I can easily pass.
Thanks Ken!

[km]

thanks CC, you hit the nail on the head for my reasoning on that article. It is part of what we must deal with; cannot just shrug off the chalk every time.

[CC Brown]

I know you will be putting the XFAV as a flag in the exporter. I was wondering if it could be put in the Robot. I would like to eliminate the races with the REAL XFAV and keep the other races including the false XFAV. If the false XFAV could not be identified using the Robot then just a button that excluded XFAV races. Then todays plays could be easily identified.