Pac/per

[OPM]

How are people using pac/per. Are you using the race's pac/per or the horses pac/per? I know Ken has stated that horses have to be within 5pt of todays EPR but is anyone using pac/per to adjust final figures.

[Glen]

If you find mdn special wts that showed a PAC over todays EPR you might have a good play.

I personally like to use PAC/PER for energy distribution analysis in maidens and turfers...ie did they run early or late.

Also I use it to evaluate pace of the race...ie what races had slow or fast pace senarios.

[Huguenot]

I use PAC-PER a lot especially with E and EP horses (and P horses who run forwardly) to see which horses have no shot because of a pace deficiency.

If all the E and EP horses can only press modest fractions successfully I begin to look for strong closers and key them in exotics (when they don't win they place and show pretty consistently, more so than early horses who can finish out of the money if they can't keep up early or tire badly.)

Not so useful on the turf because of the slow pace, but I still use it in 8f and sometimes 8.5f races on the green if there's some pace there.

Warning -- lightly raced horses can improve pretty dramatically in this regard. Also if a horse has NOT proven he can press or set this pace but has not failed at it either and its PER rating is competiive, I give it a shot at a price. (6-1 at least depending on field size, horse's form cycle, work out lines, TRN, etc.)

[tbrown]

I have been playing around with some ideas from Jim Quinn - his PDQ pace ratings.
Sprint - Add SOR+Pac of the race + Per of the race+Pac of the horse
Route - Add SOR+Pac of the race + Per of the race+Per of the horse
So far, seems to be hitting a lot of horse in the 3-1 to 6-1 range. Not able to run through a database because I don't have one built with SOR yet. By hand, hitting about 25-30%.

There is a long thread over at PA's about Michael Pizzola's use of fulcrums and PPF ratings. The Pac PEr ratings lend themselves to this method nicely and I have actually been using these ideas for years - first, wtih raw fractions and then with the Quirin type numbers modules Ken wrote for Brohamer's MPH software. Once I set a fulcrum, I only look at races where the PAc of the race is within 4 points. I get rid of a lot of horses this way.

[phantom]

Here is a idea from that you can test!
Add the WK Speed to the highest PAC-PER or ALC!
You look at EV-1-2-3 or LV-1-2-3 watch for even pace like a 3-3--4-4--5-5--6-6!
This does not take you long and quite surprizing of the out come!
Also the last WK date compared to the last Race date!
I think if you check your Races with Results this will become very clear,no running any type
of test!Just what you seen in the TLC Screen!
Gus

[Huguenot]

I have been playing around with some ideas from Jim Quinn - his PDQ pace ratings.
Sprint - Add SOR+Pac of the race + Per of the race+Pac of the horse
Route - Add SOR+Pac of the race + Per of the race+Per of the horse
So far, seems to be hitting a lot of horse in the 3-1 to 6-1 range. Not able to run through a database because I don't have one built with SOR yet. By hand, hitting about 25-30%.



Tom,
Since the SOR is generally equal or within 1 point of the PER of the race isn't adding SOR to the PER of the race redundent?

What happens if you just add SOR to PAC of race to PAC of horse? (in sprints, PER in routes)
I presume with the sprints you are also taking into account form so if a horse has run against really good paces in a fast races but finished far back you wouldn't rate him off that type of race.

[phantom]

Tom,
Since the SOR is generally equal or within 1 point of the PER of the race isn't adding SOR to the PER of the race redundent?

What happens if you just add SOR to PAC of race to PAC of horse? (in sprints, PER in routes)
I presume with the sprints you are also taking into account form so if a horse has run against really good paces in a fast races but finished far back you wouldn't rate him off that type of race.
Tom
Send me a e-mail at [leader2@juno.com] and I can give you the details of what I do and how!Form is base on the Trainer getting the horse ready for any type of race!
Gus or Phantom