Carl
13th August 2001, 09:21.59 AM
When I first started out with HTR, I used to like to play horses with ranking one in three catagories, Fr1, Ep, and ACL. I would just look through the HTR downloads for these kinds of animals, throw out some with what I considered to be fatal "form flaws", i.e. 0-30 trainer, off 365 days, etc.
I just went back and ran this simple pattern for all of last year's races in my db and it has held up surprisingly well.
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
July 1st, 2000 to June 30th 2001 all tracks/all races/all surfaces.
Fr1, EP1, ACL1.
Total Bets 5995
Total Amount Bet 11990.00
Wins 1836
Pct. 30.63%
Amount Won 11384.60
Profit/Loss -605.40
Pct Profit Loss -5.05%
Avg. Payout 6.20
Pretty good for no handicapping.
I think it works because of the uniqueness and the working togetherness of the three factors.
1) Fr1/EV1 is the most powerful HTR factor, period. Using it alone will cut your loses to half the track take.
2) EP1 assures you the Fr1 horse can carry it's speed to the first call at least. Not all of them can.
3) ACL is my favorite unpublicized HTR factor. It gives you the average class/speed rating of the winning horse for the last three races that the horse today's horse ran in. This number, like Fr1, is often invisible to the general public.
With a little fine tuning from the modeller for the track you are playing, maybe adding a factor or two you like, and hopefully you are on your way. For example, this pattern showed a profit for the month of July if you had only played it with a horse that finished in the top three last start.
later,
Carl
I just went back and ran this simple pattern for all of last year's races in my db and it has held up surprisingly well.
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
July 1st, 2000 to June 30th 2001 all tracks/all races/all surfaces.
Fr1, EP1, ACL1.
Total Bets 5995
Total Amount Bet 11990.00
Wins 1836
Pct. 30.63%
Amount Won 11384.60
Profit/Loss -605.40
Pct Profit Loss -5.05%
Avg. Payout 6.20
Pretty good for no handicapping.
I think it works because of the uniqueness and the working togetherness of the three factors.
1) Fr1/EV1 is the most powerful HTR factor, period. Using it alone will cut your loses to half the track take.
2) EP1 assures you the Fr1 horse can carry it's speed to the first call at least. Not all of them can.
3) ACL is my favorite unpublicized HTR factor. It gives you the average class/speed rating of the winning horse for the last three races that the horse today's horse ran in. This number, like Fr1, is often invisible to the general public.
With a little fine tuning from the modeller for the track you are playing, maybe adding a factor or two you like, and hopefully you are on your way. For example, this pattern showed a profit for the month of July if you had only played it with a horse that finished in the top three last start.
later,
Carl