Jockey Strike:Impact on K?

[Mall]

My impression is that jockey ratings, and T&J are part of the algorithms which are used to determine K ratings/Kline. If I'm right in that assumption, wouldn't they be somewhat suspect at CD during the jockey "strike"?

[km]

I'm glad yo brought this up Mel, maybe other will post with their opinions.

It will have a minor impact on our (K) rating. This is not really a 'strike' but a boycott by 15 riders who will not return during the meet. Pat Day and others will continue.

= The replacement jocks will be named on the horses within 24 hours, and they will have their own stats from Equibase and hopefully the effect on the numbers will minimal in terms of raw data accuracy.

= This question of jock replacement been brought up in the past regarding 'late change of jockey' and how it will effect the static jock rating. I tested jockey switches with our data and found no problems at all with the win%, but the ROI went up a bit! This is probably because original rider named reveals clear "intention" on the part of the trainer and owner about the horse being "live" today. A new jockey got less betting, but the horse runs just a as well anyway. No problem there.

= But those 'late change of jockey' usually end up being a decent rider as the replacement. During a strike, there will be a number of unknown and hungry (low %) riders taking part. This could cause overall chaos in the both the race and the betting. Might be able to take advantage of it by concentrating on horses that show strong ratings that are unaffected by the jockey switch, such as VEL, pace and speed figs.

= On the other hand, if there are a bunch of inexperienced or young riders in a large field, luck and bad trips may take over and the best horses will not be winning. Strikes like this cause a lot of animosity and anger and emotions will be high among everyone, and that's impossible to handicap with any method.

=The health insurance debate is reasonable and jockeys deserve it. But from the standpoint of the insurance company, they are hard to cover because it is a dangerous occupation and the premiums will be huge.

[tbrown]

K is no problem for me at CD. I will not play any track that bars riders for this issue.
CD is off my play list indefinately. This is a game for me. It it is a life endangering occupation for them. No contest.

[Victor]

Just another track amongst many. You don't want to ride? Ok, I'll wait.

Oh, so now you want to . . .

Too late jokers. I am all for you, but who is the boss here?

[km]

I understand the feelings of both T'brown and Victor. Difficult issue and both sides in the boycott have good arguments.

On hand I'm self employed, so are jockeys. I have to pay for my own health insurance, which I do with a large deductable but covers catastrophic illness or accident. I'm sure most jockeys do the same out of their own pocket. What's their excuse?

Me hardly in a HIGH-RISK profession sitting in front of a computer all day. Jockey and racecar driver must be among the most dangerous occupations on the list and the comparable premiums must be huge, if they can get coverage at all.

So the jocks find themselves in the same situation as doctors. Malpractice insturance premiums are so high now that most doctors cannot open an office by themselves. Jockeys that make less than $100,000/year, which is most of them, are stuck paying outrageous premiums that render their earnings useless. They want the tracks or the owners to help with those costs so they can make a fair living. This is not an issue for that small group of elite riders that make more than $500,000 year as they can afford it, but most cannot.

T'Brown's point is that the track's should help out and treat the jocks like human beings, not prostitutes. For 150 years, jockeys have been treated like crap that it's righteous for them to stand up and ask for a fair hand.

Victor has a good point also though: in our system, you are not forced to work for an employer that you feel is abusive, if the joicks don't like it they should seek employment elsewhere, as there are plenty of other riders willing to take those mounts who are eager for work.

Tough call.

[tbrown]

So.....if you ever get tired of programming and think about looking for something else to do, I 'll chip for your insurance! :eek:

[OPM]

Well, how about the bettors having to pick up the tab for the high Worker's Comp in CA so they can improve the field size. Where are the larger fields now that we are paying for this?

[tomcat]

The tracks cover the jky's now up to 100k. What jky's want is catastophic insurance. This came up when d'amico was seriously hurt. They are claiming the 100k is not enough.

[OPM]

Well, if they are really independent contractors, why cover them at all? If you are going to cover them, then at least give them some decent coverage. $100,000 last about 3 days for a critically injured jockey.