"Detrimental Factors"

[Carl]

Tom made a comment that interested me in the MPH thread, I didn't want to change the direction over there, so thought I would re-post here.

Tom says:
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"I never look at EE%. I decided a long ago with Sartin prgrams that it was worthless and even detrimental to me.
Tom"
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I had never considered the possibility of a factor being "detrimental" to me, and upon reflection, don't see how it could be. The worst a factor could be that I could think of would be a "random" or "intermittent" one, which I would then simply view as "useless" or "neutral", i.e. the first letter of a horse's name.

On the other hand, I have studied factors which caused my patterns to go in the opposite direction from what I expected. I like this a lot, 'cause then I just use the opposite as a positive. For instance, I have several spot plays which like a horse to be out of the money last and have a >= 4 AP last. So my negative thus turns into a positive.

On the EE% Tom, could you use the opposite as a positive or no?

Anyone else have any thoughts on "detrimental factors"?

later,
Carl

[tbrown]

My experience has been that there is seldom any relationship to the E% a horse runs today and what is ran in a paceline. I used to keep models and throw out horse that did not meet the E% parameters and regularly threw out winners. Justt today, I watched horses winning at FL that were nowheres close to the models E% - all way to early to win, but there they were, all alone at the wire. I bet them today and would not have a couple of years ago.
Tom

[hurrikane]

Interesting idea Carl.

The single most 'detrimmental' factors I know of are the iTrn number..the jockey rating and the t/j%.

Any trainer with a rating under 100 had better have an incredible advantage in a race...and when he does everyone can see it and he pays nothinig. Best play..these guys are fav and have been laid off or stepping up in class. Go against them without prejudice! They always seem to race thier horses into shape and always are a bit too optimistic about thier stock.

Jocks...I've never been a big believer in jockeys determining the race but a few people here are changing my mind. There are, with out question, better jockies..Desourmox come to mind as well as others..When he raced in Md there were horse in the 2 and 3 hole that were there only because he put them there. They always figure in the exotics.

Jockey trainer combos...at some tracks..are no brainers. Rick Wilson won 5 races Sat..all but one on combos over 25%. The one that was under killed my pic 4. Guess he was hot. Combos under 9%...are not playing today. Especially with a top trainer. If he is serious he will pay for a good jock..if he's filling a field he will put up a cheapie. One caveat...check the comp trainer standings and be sure the 33% isn't 3 races and 1 win. Make sure it is real. be certain the 0% isn't 3 races and no wins..if it is a top jock and top trainer is won't matter.

Would be nice in the new PPs under the trainer number and jock number if it listed a + or - when there is a change to see if the trainer or jockey is better than the combo on the last race, or after a claim. will have to email Ken and see if it is doable.

[Bruce]

Originally posted by tbrown
My experience has been that there is seldom any relationship to the E% a horse runs today and what is ran in a paceline. I used to keep models and throw out horse that did not meet the E% parameters and regularly threw out winners. Justt today, I watched horses winning at FL that were nowheres close to the models E% - all way to early to win, but there they were, all alone at the wire. I bet them today and would not have a couple of years ago.
Tom


Tom, did you try this with turf racing. I found %E pretty useless except on the turf. I don't use it anymore because I don't have a program that computes it, but when I did, it worked pretty well eliminating horses on the grass.

bruce

[tbrown]

Originally posted by Bruce



Tom, did you try this with turf racing. I found %E pretty useless except on the turf. I don't use it anymore because I don't have a program that computes it, but when I did, it worked pretty well eliminating horses on the grass.

bruce

I tried it on turf, but I found that either using Sustained Pace of Quinn's version of Beyer-style 3rd fraction ratings was a lot easier and more profitable. I caught some very nice horses at Saratoga last year using the 3rd fraction ratings. Normally, I just use velocity, SP or LP readouts, unless the turf if pretty worn out, it's very hot and dry, and turf is playing more like dirt, then I look at early advatages. But E% is forever gone from my list of factor to look at.
Tom