ODDS

[Gambler]

What is the formula to convert odds to probability?
--What is the probability of 7/2 odds or 5/1 odds and how do yo figure it?
Thanks
ed

[km]

1 / (odds + 1)

example:

7/2 = 3.5

1 / (3.5 + 1)

1 / 4.5 = 22.2%

(note: "/" = 'divided by')

This % is not the probablility of winning, but it is the percentage of winners needed to break even or show an 1.00 ROI.

Once the probability has been determined then the formula is

(1 / Prob) -1

example: what are the fair odds if a horse if it has been determined that a horse has a 15% chance to win the race.

15% = .15

(1 / .15) - 1

6.66 - 1
5.66 are the fair odds to break even if a horse has a 15% chance to win.

Do the public final tote odds relate to probability of winning?

Not really. The public is very efficient at losing 15 to 20 cents on the dollar in any large sample. The average 4/1 shot on the board would need a 20% probability of winning in order for us to break even on that assumption. But 4/1 toteboards only win about 17% of their races on average. The public is most efficient at the lowest odds levels, but that doesn't help us much as we already can assume a 1/5 shot has an overwhelming chance to win!

[Gambler]

Thanks Ken