Mph

[cole]

Hi Folks,

I'm new to this Discussion Group but feel it is the best board on the Web for serious horseplayers.

I use Ken's MPH Program and have been using it since 1995. I use the PL5 Mode for picking pacelines and this program has served me well thanks to Ernie and Ken.

Just wondering if there is anyone else out there who uses MPH?

Cole

[Ron]

Hi Cole;

I've used MPH for at least 5-6 years before switching over to HTR 15 months ago.

My opinion is that HTR is the Super Delux version of MPH.
I can now prepare 2-3 tracks in the same amount of time it took me to prepare 1 track
with the old MPH program.

PL mode 5 is my preference as well when I don't have time to choose my own pacelines.
I do use PL1 in certain situations though.

I get most of my high priced horses by reading and interpreting the FPS velocity figures.

If you ever want to discuss good old fashioned MPH handicapping, feel free to post anytime.
This place is open 24 - 7.

Ron

[tbrown]

Ron,
glad to hear talk of MPH type readouts. They are my favorite along with Quirin-style pace-speed figs. My concern with the HTR version is that all the horses in a race are rated. Do you leave all the entries in when you analyze these readings or do you throw out non-contenders?
My preference is to narrow down the horses, but since modeling won't let you scratch horses after the results are in, I can't easily maintain a good model when I do that.
Tom

[Ron]

Tom;

When I first started with MPH I used to try and keep my readouts limited to 5 contenders , but now I leave in the entire field.

I feel that every horse in the race, including the non -win- contenders can potentially contribute in some way to the outcome of the event. Especially if you like to play exotics, there's a whole sub-set of FPS energy figs that point out those fat priced place and show finishers.

I'm so used to keying in on the FPS numbers that when I glance at a field of them I can usually tell within 30 seconds if the race is playable for me or not.
When I see most of the horses in the race with real close numbers that I can barely separate, it's a signal for me to go have a hot dog or a cup of coffee and wait for a better opportunity.

I prefer to wait for those races where only a couple horses have significant FPS number advantages over the rest of the field and still go off at decent odds. Those are my key plays.

I also love to play those long priced contenders that have a FPS number advantage of 1.00 or more in Fr1, FR2, or FR3.

Have you noticed that certain horses with above average FPS readouts don't always show up stong in the line scores?
It's one of my favorite plays that almost always gets a price.

Do you have any favorite angles within the FPS figs?

Ron

[cole]

Ron and Tom,

Thanks for the reply.

I also use Quirin Pace and Speed numbers to find additional contenders. I start with the top
4 ML picks. I'm sure you realize that the top 4 ML picks win at about an 80% clip in NY.
During the fall Aqu meet the top 3 ML favorites won 73% of the races!!!

I use to include all the horses but feel there is too much "noise" in the readouts. I know some Pace Handicappers that stick to the top 5 ML horses and do just fine. Ken's article on "Getting Bullish on Longshots" was an eye opener to me.

As far as the FPS numbers, I also like to see a difference of 1.0. but also look for any horse that owns 2 of the fractions, ie. 1c, 2c, or Final Frac. Brohamer said once when you find such a horse its time to take the elastic band off your bankroll.

If you're like me my problem isn't picking winners, its making money. I hate to admit this but a few years my top selection won 7races at Suffolk Downs and I walked out a loser!!!

GOOD HANDICAPPING

Cole

[tbrown]

Ron,
I have a spot play at Finger Lakes,

K<5
EP<3
LP<3
I like to look at the velocity match up of f1,f2 and f3 and eliminate horse based on this.
Yes, the rankings alone are not the full story.

[Ron]

Tom;

Thanks for the pointer on Finger Lakes. I'll have a look at it.
The "Finger" is one of my B tracks that I manage to play a couple times
a month.

Do you ever use the EE% readouts to help with your final analysis?
I've found it to be a nice companion readout in certain spots.


Ron

[Ron]

Cole;

I agree with you about those horses that own 2 fractions. Usually a solid play, especially if you can get a decent price.

Regarding your comment on picking winners but not making money: I've been there myself and have heard similar laments from many good handicappers over the years.
In my case the cure has been to follow a money managment plan that's in tune with my personal style of play.

Ron

[tbrown]

Originally posted by Ron
Tom;

Thanks for the pointer on Finger Lakes. I'll have a look at it.
The "Finger" is one of my B tracks that I manage to play a couple times
a month.

Do you ever use the EE% readouts to help with your final analysis?
I've found it to be a nice companion readout in certain spots.


Ron

I never look at EE%. I decided a long ago with Sartin prgrams that it was worthless and even detrimental to me.
Tom

[Ken Massa]

Cole, nice to hear from an experienced and obviously happy MPH user, thanks for your enthusiasm - glad you are still having success with the program.

While MPH was the absolutely the most honest and determined effort ever to put the complexity of velocity handicapping into everyone's hands, HTR is a major step forward.

Brohamer was a perfectionist and we spent 18 months side by side working every detail and had Ernie L and Ben O computing overtime to make sure it succeeded. The original algorithms that we adapted from Modern Pace Handicapping are still used in HTR. But there are considerable improvements compared to the manual version (1994), or the download BRIS or TrackMaster versions of MPH (1995-7). Here are some of the differences -----

1) HTR uses 1/100ths of a second to compute all fractions. The older MPH versions calulates with the less accurate 1/5ths. This is a critical distinction for the necessary accuracy of the powerful fraction-1. Less important for combination factors such as A/P.

2) MPH versions use a standard BL adjustment table - HTR is much more sophisticated dealing with this issue and doesn't attempt to estimate a horse's time at each call; instead it actualizes real time speed at a given moment. This is complicated, but I attempted to explain it at the seminar using Glen and friend as 'horse dummies' !

3) While BRIS and Beyer figures (used in the original MPH versions) are acceptable numbers for adjusting the f-p-s numbers, Jim Cramer provides considerably more depth for me to use in making more accurate track-to-track, distance and race-by-race surface adjustments. He provides me with the actual daily variant, the race figure (not just the individual horse figures) and the ability to mass research a million horses in one sitting. Over the years, we have succeeded in understanding the difficult relationship between final time speed figures and incremental velocity adjustments and tweaked the numbers beautifully.

4) Users on this bbs have tested the velocity inumbers in HTR to the max and provide continuous valuable feedback for improvements and practical usage.

Today, the original MPH program would rate about a "B" for velocity handicapping. Pretty good little program and still widely respected for the ingenuity we put into it. HTR, though, receives a straight "A" for it's razor sharp velocity accuracy and the incomparable results realized by users every day. There are many aspects of HTR software that may not rate so highly (ie pedigree analysis or trainer data), but when it comes to the f/p/s numbers, there is no rival.

[jackad]

Ken,
You speak of "the incomparable results achieved by users every day." Can you (or anyone) suggest to a newbie to velocity like me ways to use this info that have proved profitable? Or suggest a book (currntly still available) that might offer same in language and format that I might find understandable?

BTW, I look forward to all contributions that may be made to this forum's new Handicapping 101. As a newbie to HTR, I desperately need this input.

Jack

[Rick]

Jack,
'Selections Using HTR' was suppose to be what 'Handicapping 101' will try to be before it became contest central.

Maybe it will encourage some to go into depth on how they handicap in general or how they handicap a certain race.

I know that some try to use the black box approach (spot plays) while others approach each race differently based on what they see in the different screens.

[jackad]

I'm hoping that someone is willing to share a black box approach that's proved profitable. Please?

Jack

[Carl]

Jackad,

Couple of points.
1) The game is changing, betting patterns are changing. What worked last year (or last month) won't necessarily work today.
2) "Black box" plays are based on past results, which may or not hold true in the future.
3) Let me give you two examples, based on a spot play/black box play I call "Jim3". This play was profitable for three years running, albeit with me having limited amounts of data for 1998 and 1999:

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report Jim3 1998
02-May-01
1st-------7
2nd-------3
3rd-------4
Total Bets 36
Total Amount Bet 72.00
Wins 7
Pct. 19.44%
Amount Won 103.60
Profit/Loss 31.60
Pct Profit Loss 43.89%
Avg. Payout 14.80

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
02-May-01
1st-------3
2nd-------2
3rd-------2
Total Bets 17
Total Amount Bet 34.00
Wins 3
Pct. 17.65%
Amount Won 58.00
Profit/Loss 24.00
Pct Profit Loss 70.59%
Avg. Payout 19.33

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report Jim3 July 1 2000-March 30 2001
Total Bets 278
Total Amount Bet 556.00
Wins 37
Pct. 13.31%
Amount Won 1072.90
Profit/Loss 516.90
Pct Profit Loss 92.97%
Avg. Payout 29.00

Looks good right?

O.K. suppose I gave you this play and you used it for the next three months and the results turned out like this (actual results for April 1-June 30 2001)

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report Jim3 April 1-June 30 2001.
06-Jul-01
1st-------4
2nd-------9
3rd-------9
Total Bets 73
Total Amount Bet 146.00
Wins 4
Pct. 5.48%
Amount Won 81.80
Profit/Loss -64.20
Pct Profit Loss -43.97%
Avg. Payout 20.45

Would you be thanking me or cursing me?

And this not in my experience an isolated example. I have another dirt layoff play (called "Jack dirt") that had been over 50% ROI 5 yearly quarters in a row, then went 1 for 34 with the winner paying $5.60 in July. Ouch.

I don't know if you find this hard to believe or not, but it is true. My own thought is that unless you are willing to develop your own "black box" plays, it is pointless to play them, as sh*t will happen.... and when it does, you need to have a feel for when to get "on" or to get "off".

By the way, I still had an O.K. July, since I am presently using 16 different spot plays, playing them when they co-incide, some always made up for the ones that fall down.

But next month, who knows? Not I. And I have a "black box". Hehe.

later,
Carl

[jackad]

Thanks for your reponse. Your data are truly discouraging but it's better to know reality than not.
Others: After Carl's input, must we now give up any use of a black box approach?

Jack

[jackad]

I submitted the above response before reading Carl's contribution to Handicapping 101. Perhaps there's still hope.
Jack

[hurrikane]

Jack...many including me use a black box spot play approach. Even Ken I believe. However..you really have to develop your own.
I know someone here had the K*** play..all chaulk...returning 60% wins with a 14% return. this is great for some but makes my butt cheeks tight. Anouther one has a play with a 9% win and a 25% return..same problem for me. You really have to feel it out for yourself...what you are comfortable with.

Kens pics in the HTR program are pretty good..but chaulky. That may be as close as it comes. Oh..try MNR esd >9. Close your eyes and just bet..same bet..consistanly..don't get scared..nice win 27% and nice 42% ROI. If it goes down and loses for a few weeks don't give up..the next $90 horse is right around the corner.

[jackad]

hurrikane,
Thanks for the suggestion about MNR, and also your mention of the k*** play ( I might be happy to settle for 60% wins and 14% ROI).
Please excuse my ignorance as an HTR newbie, but on which screen do I find esd? And while I find K almost everywhere, where do I find it with asterisks as in k***?
Thanks.
Jack

[MikeDee]

Jack,

esd is our slang for no1 rank early speed differential. You can find this in the impact module not the htr module. Go to the main screen in this module and look at any no 1 rank early speed runner you will see the differential over the number two runner. An edif of 5 equates to 1 length so a edif of 9 or more says that this runner may be be able to put about 2 lengths on the field early and will more then likely be a factor in the outcome. long odds and big edif mean possible longshot winner.

K***
In screen 6 of the HTR module you will see the K ranking and on the right a column with rating that shows the (*). The is referring to no 1 K with 3 or more *** (stars). This is the chaulk play referred to.

We've been doing this so long that we take alot of shorcuts (hate to type and can't spell). There are no dumb questions just ask and someone will jump in and expalin.

P.S. When you have time go back and read some of the old news letters. A lot of material on testing of the factors that Ken has done on his large data base. May help in your deciding how you want to use HTR.

[Bernie]

Mike,

I'm also new and still overwhelmed by all the info. Could you please explain what the stars with K1 mean? Has anyone tested out K1 *** on the db? Is K1*** similar to George's K1 ****?
There are sure a lot of rating factors: K, HTR, PER, PSCAN, POW, PRB%, MikeD, etc. How can one tell what's best? It seems to me that having too many factors in a composite rating might mean you would be playing a lot of chalk. Is this correct?

[George]

Bernie,
The K1*** and my K1**** are not related. Will post the rules for my K1**** on the new thread soon. The stars on screen six denote a 12 percent probabilty for each star. Three stars would mean a calculated 36 percent probability.

Best way to determine what factor to use for a given track is to create a model for the track and then use the model analysis filter to look at details of what is happening in that type of race. The model is extremely easy to use and if you need help getting started oin it just post.

Many of us like to take the basic findings from the model and then look further on our db at combinations of the better factors. That really is not necessary. Can make money using HTR without going the db route.

[MikeDee]

As far as I know the only rk1 with stars is Georges' K and 4 star play so please excuse my error. I don't really know what the criteria are for a horse to earn a star perhapps Ken or some else might be able to respond.

[jackad]

hurrikane mentions above that the K**** play shows a 60% win rate and a 14% ROI. Is this confirmed by dataabase studies? I ask because when trying this play out on a very small sample of only 43 plays, I show 44% wins and a ROI of 1.8%.

Jack

[hurrikane]

Sorry Jackad..again I have confused people...the K**** play doesn't relate to the '*' in HTR. It is a combination of things revolving around the K horse.
the K**** play goes something like this...george came up with it and him and Ron refined it. HOpefully I have given credit to the right people..if I left anyone out don't fret..wouldn't be the first time. :)
I don't know if George is still playing it. I use it to find strong favorites because they do win over 50% of the time...anyway look for this factor in a horse

K1 in both pl1 and pl5
HTR1 in both pl1 and pl5
pScan 1 in both pl1 and pl5
acl <4
jky <4

once you have found a horse in this situation you take the HTR 2 and 3 horses and add thier HTR rating numbers together, then divide by your K1 horses HTR rating number. if the result is 1.46 or less then you have a very powerful favorite...you damn sure better know what you are doing if you are going to bet against him. That is how I use it..as a way to tell if I'm betting against a strong fav..should probably pass or look to the exotics for a play.

This was originally used on smaller chump tracks but seems to hold up across all tracks. Well, if memory serves me I don't think a K!*** ticket was cashed at PHA the entire time the 'K' frenzy was afoot.

Only thing I might mention about your post..be careful making decisions based solely on results from a small sample of races...that, my friend, cost me a few bankrolls when I started with db handicapping..took a long time to get back my education expenses. :D

[tomcat]

The easiest "black box" method I can think of ...
Play the stars.

On the tlc just play the stars in the exactas, You'll be surprised how many come in.