Bernie
10th August 2001, 04:15.59 AM
I have a few questions:
1) From reading over old messages, it seems that many numbers-oriented users like to use the modeler on a fairly short-term basis to spot areas for exploitation on a track by track basis. There are, however, a few like Carl who prefer to work with broad based factors that seem to hold up reasonably well over time and across all tracks. Is there anyone out there who has combined these approaches by finding strong db factors from large samples of data that have generally done well everywhere, but then implementing them only on the tracks and race types best suited for them as pointed out by the modeler? If so, have you compared your results to what the results would have been from the 2 seperate approaches by themselves?
2) I'd like to avoid playing tracks that have the smallest purses and mutual pools. This is for 2 reasons. First, the lack of purse $ may induce more shenanigans from backstretch personnel and have more horses with health problems, thereby weakening figure based handicapping. And second, other HTR subscribers looking at similar factors may depress longshot odds when the betting pools are small. If Carl and George wager even a small fraction of their winnings at these tracks, the odds will surely come down drastically. :). Therefore, I've come up with the following list of tracks I'm thinking of following. If anyone has any suggested additions or subtractions, I'd appreciate hearing about them and why they should be added or dropped: AP, AQU, BEL, BM, BMF, CD, CNL, CRC, DEL, DMR, ELP, EMD, EVD, FE, FL, GG, GP, HAW, HIA, HOL, HOO, HOU, HST, KEE, LAD, LRL, LS, MED, MNR, MTH, OP, PEN, PHA, PIM, PLN, PRM, RD, RET, RKM, RP, SAC, SAR, SOL, SPT, SR, STK, TDN, TP, TUP, WDS, WO.
3) It looks like most raw racing data comes from Equibase. Does anyone know of any websites better than theirs for getting the most timely late scratches and changes?
4) The last 6 weeks of data I downloaded from the site looks fine for doing short term, track-by-track modeling. But I'd love to get more data for overall db analysis. Is there any way of getting this other than just waiting until my database builds up over time?
Thanks much.
1) From reading over old messages, it seems that many numbers-oriented users like to use the modeler on a fairly short-term basis to spot areas for exploitation on a track by track basis. There are, however, a few like Carl who prefer to work with broad based factors that seem to hold up reasonably well over time and across all tracks. Is there anyone out there who has combined these approaches by finding strong db factors from large samples of data that have generally done well everywhere, but then implementing them only on the tracks and race types best suited for them as pointed out by the modeler? If so, have you compared your results to what the results would have been from the 2 seperate approaches by themselves?
2) I'd like to avoid playing tracks that have the smallest purses and mutual pools. This is for 2 reasons. First, the lack of purse $ may induce more shenanigans from backstretch personnel and have more horses with health problems, thereby weakening figure based handicapping. And second, other HTR subscribers looking at similar factors may depress longshot odds when the betting pools are small. If Carl and George wager even a small fraction of their winnings at these tracks, the odds will surely come down drastically. :). Therefore, I've come up with the following list of tracks I'm thinking of following. If anyone has any suggested additions or subtractions, I'd appreciate hearing about them and why they should be added or dropped: AP, AQU, BEL, BM, BMF, CD, CNL, CRC, DEL, DMR, ELP, EMD, EVD, FE, FL, GG, GP, HAW, HIA, HOL, HOO, HOU, HST, KEE, LAD, LRL, LS, MED, MNR, MTH, OP, PEN, PHA, PIM, PLN, PRM, RD, RET, RKM, RP, SAC, SAR, SOL, SPT, SR, STK, TDN, TP, TUP, WDS, WO.
3) It looks like most raw racing data comes from Equibase. Does anyone know of any websites better than theirs for getting the most timely late scratches and changes?
4) The last 6 weeks of data I downloaded from the site looks fine for doing short term, track-by-track modeling. But I'd love to get more data for overall db analysis. Is there any way of getting this other than just waiting until my database builds up over time?
Thanks much.