PDA

View Full Version : A few questions from a newcomer...


Bernie
10th August 2001, 04:15.59 AM
I have a few questions:

1) From reading over old messages, it seems that many numbers-oriented users like to use the modeler on a fairly short-term basis to spot areas for exploitation on a track by track basis. There are, however, a few like Carl who prefer to work with broad based factors that seem to hold up reasonably well over time and across all tracks. Is there anyone out there who has combined these approaches by finding strong db factors from large samples of data that have generally done well everywhere, but then implementing them only on the tracks and race types best suited for them as pointed out by the modeler? If so, have you compared your results to what the results would have been from the 2 seperate approaches by themselves?

2) I'd like to avoid playing tracks that have the smallest purses and mutual pools. This is for 2 reasons. First, the lack of purse $ may induce more shenanigans from backstretch personnel and have more horses with health problems, thereby weakening figure based handicapping. And second, other HTR subscribers looking at similar factors may depress longshot odds when the betting pools are small. If Carl and George wager even a small fraction of their winnings at these tracks, the odds will surely come down drastically. :). Therefore, I've come up with the following list of tracks I'm thinking of following. If anyone has any suggested additions or subtractions, I'd appreciate hearing about them and why they should be added or dropped: AP, AQU, BEL, BM, BMF, CD, CNL, CRC, DEL, DMR, ELP, EMD, EVD, FE, FL, GG, GP, HAW, HIA, HOL, HOO, HOU, HST, KEE, LAD, LRL, LS, MED, MNR, MTH, OP, PEN, PHA, PIM, PLN, PRM, RD, RET, RKM, RP, SAC, SAR, SOL, SPT, SR, STK, TDN, TP, TUP, WDS, WO.

3) It looks like most raw racing data comes from Equibase. Does anyone know of any websites better than theirs for getting the most timely late scratches and changes?

4) The last 6 weeks of data I downloaded from the site looks fine for doing short term, track-by-track modeling. But I'd love to get more data for overall db analysis. Is there any way of getting this other than just waiting until my database builds up over time?

Thanks much.

ERNIE2
10th August 2001, 06:50.07 AM
For my two cents worth: the question of long term vs short term models will always be with us just as the chicken or the egg and what paceline method is best ? My best answer is that there isn't one except to use both. then let me pose a question to you,supose that you find that at your track the "AP" #1 has been winning 6 0f last 10 races and that if you ask the modeler what has this program done for me the last 25 or 30 races and it has won 5/10 races............but when you hit "+" key and ask for 995 races (the most possible) you find that it has only won 3 of ten ......what do you do,just what do you do.??? Today in the here and now anything above even money is a slight overlay............One of the hardest things for me to do is to run out of races today before you can get even or make a few bucks.........going home with the money is much more fun than going home knowing that I did the right thing all day but still lost the money.......while I don't use the modeler as I once did because I now use several factors to come to each of my betting it is nice to check it to see what has happened lately...........You don't say where in Ca. you live but to comment on you question of what tracks to follow and how much you should be betting.........monitor the pools to find how much it would take to move the odds......at DMR-SAR-BEL-AP I would guess that you could bet upward to a thousand sometimes two and not move the odds one click but at beautiful little Los Alamitos .......$2k is the pool.............
As for HTR users affecting the odds......this is something that comes up often but let me assure you that there isn't that many of us.......while we are a strong and powerful band of ants and we will live fat-n-sassy off the juice,we'll never topple the tree. If your around Northern Ca. I go to Santa Rosa's Jockey Club Maybe I could help with some of your other questions.....e-mail me at the address below.........hope this helps,Erine

Carl
10th August 2001, 08:44.12 AM
Welcome Bernie.

You'll find out what works for you more and more over time, time and new data are your friends.

My thoughts on what you post.
1) Make several models for how/what you would like to bet.
2) Either make $2 bets only or paper track these models for a week at a time. What I found happened was that most models that were profitable early did not carry through, but that some did. I could only find this out over time.
3) The highs and lows of everyday betting are much more of a swing than the literature would have you believe. And if you are not tracking what you are playing and how much you are winning or losing, you will start thinking. And your thoughts will not be your friends........

Good luck and have fun. IMO nothing right or wrong about your planned track list. You'll just have to find what HTR factors work there in conjunction with how you like to bet. "YOU" are an inseperatable part of the equation, I think we as horseplayers sometimes forget that.

Any specific questions post away.

later,
Carl

hurrikane
10th August 2001, 09:11.33 AM
Can't add much Bernie. I can say that my handicapping has changed considerably since coming to HTR. You will find over time that some of the myths we believe and have used over the years are exactly that...myths. So I can only say keep an open mind, listen to everyone...I haven't met one person up here that hasn't offered something to make me think outside the envelope. Listen to anyone from Texas..especially if they are talking about Pick4s and K*** horses.

As for you're list of tracks..the only thing I can say is over time you will find some of these tracks can't fill fields or put together competitive fields so the odd are typically low.
That said, PIM was just such a track and I seldom ever play it until now..pick 4..and it is fun..hit 2 since they opened Wed. So maybe it just take a different attack at these tracks.

Also, it is always raining in Ohio..while everything I have seen shows nESD >9 to be very powerful in the slop..I don't play it. In fact I can't even figure out why people would live in a place where it rains every day..maybe Mike could answer that one :D

Glen
10th August 2001, 09:15.11 AM
Hurrikane...Fantastic! Tell me more about your P4 scores!

Bernie
10th August 2001, 11:24.57 AM
Hurrikane,

Do you think LRL will be the same as PIM? Can you name names of other possible tracks on the list where the odds may be low because they have trouble filling the fields?

Also, if nESD>9 REALLY does well on wet tracks, why not play it? Does anyone have lots of data on how nESD>9 (and maybe PSCAN as well)does on wet versus dry tracks?

I'm still working on PICK 1's but would love to hear more about PICK 4's as well.

MikeDee
10th August 2001, 12:05.37 PM
Cincy/RD had more then it's fair share of rain early on this year but right now we need some rain in the Cleve area. I'm getting tired of watering the lawn!!