Take it for what it's worth.

[Victor]

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Think this doesn't apply to you? Think again. What I mean by this is you MUST maintain an open mind and never subjugate your brain to the decisions of a stupid computer. The paradox is use the computer but do not worship it's stupidity. In 2004, we are still in control!

[Donnie]

Victor....? Why? Why have you turned your back on us computers?

[Victor]

In the Summer Derby, take Birdstone because he is the best 3yr old and he's bred for it.

No way Jose!

It's Purge or Lion Heart. Good thing SJ isn't here, he'd kick both of their A**'s AGAIN!

[Victor]

Donnie,

You are not a computer.

Birdbrain is going down today.

[Victor]

Willy of the Valley! at EVEN money wins the 5th at Saratoga.

Do not underestimate the power and ability of your opponent. Also, "do not assume"

These two rules will make you money.

and Remember, Birdbrain is history!

[Victor]

Let's test if it's just Luck?

Sar, race 7, brain picks,

1, 10

[Victor]

Not so good this time. I still think it's best to rely on your BRAIN though. :)

[Donnie]

Victor....
You know what my computer told me? He had Birdbrain on top! Maybe they know something we don't....??

[tbrown]

Hehehe!
Dang 'puter shore does some nice 'cappin!

[dehere]

I wish somehow htr would pick up on horse for course stats? Jim Mazur used to in his Spa handicapping reports; maybe he still does. It would be nice if htr could somehow include such data in its pedigree reports.

I was on a week end camping and biking expedition with my daughter on Saturday and missed the race, but it looks as if Birdstone made the same move he did last year in his maiden at the Spa and which he repeated in the Belmont. I would have bet Purge and then kicked myself. Glad I missed the opportunity.

[km]

Henry, click the [HST] button (horse history) in HTR2 to find the horse's record at the track. PURGE and the CLIFFS EDGE had more definitive "horse for course" records SAR than BIRDSTONE, don't you think? BIRDSTONE had won a muddy sprint last year.

BTW: LION HEART is history - broke his foot during the running of the Travers.

[dehere]

Hey, thanks for the tip KM, and good point re Purge - winning the Jim Dandy is a wee bit more meaningful than winning an off track race from the year before. I guess the Birdstone race last year was just so memorable after watching it live that it sticks in my mind a bit more. I had to leave to catch a plane and missed the Jim Dandy so I didn't see his perfomance at the beginning of the month. I'll be there for the coming week end and am looking forward to a nice close to the meet.

[dehere]

I tried to edit my post, but my minute had expired so I'll add to it here. What I was referring to when I mentioned horse for course was related more to sire and dam sire information than to the horse itself. While it is pretty much meaningless at most tracks, that sort of data really has a place at tracks like Saratoga.

[AwolAtHTR]

consider:

A. Horse has THIRD in K rating

B. Horse's trainer prepared horse to beat the Kentucky Derby AND Preakness winner.

C. Horse will pay OVER TEN dollars.

IF you found this horse on a Saturaday in August, then would you tell a betting partner
aaah, I got a horse for you and his trainer is good and HTR has him as a STRONG contender.

yes, Birdstone has a GREAT trainer who knows how to win races.

oh, this trainer had THREE horses in the race and an Exacta box paid $46.
BUT, why risk twelve dollars to get forty-six when you get PAID $11.6 for win!!

oh, AND, nobody would leave Purge or Lion Heart out of exacta. Well MAYBE one of them.
So the Exacta box would be twenty-four dollars and GAIN would be LESS THAN DOUBLE
but the win GAIN is OVER FIVE times the money.

So, the SIMPLE bet was Birdstone to win.

-----------
AWOL says Birdstone's win VALIDATES that Smarty Jones is ALSO a very good horse!!

[Victor]

Originally posted by AwolAtHTR
AWOL says Birdstone's win VALIDATES that Smarty Jones is ALSO a very good horse!!

Right you are. But let's it take a bit further, SJ is (was) F-A-R more than very good.

Birdbrain is still going down in the Classic. Too bad Smary Jones couldn't be the one to do it.

[Victor]

Make that Smarty Jones Mr. one minute editing rule.

Grindstone by Unbridled produced Birdstone, nothing against him, but where is the speed?

2:02.45?

He beat Lion Heart (broken foot) and Purge (questionable quality at the classic distances against top competition), Pulpit? What did he ever do?

Birdstone is yet to be tested. That's all I'm saying.

[dehere]

Personally I think Birdstone was tested quite handily in the Belmont. I, too, thought he was a dog for the classics and left him out of every bet I made, but, by golly, its hard to fault his performance in that race imho.

[tbrown]

IMHO, BIrsstone winning the Belmont and Travers just shows what a bunch of weak 3yos we have this year. Maybe Smarty only looked super next to them?

The bottom line, though, is HTR doesn't have the same horse/trainer biases I do and it picks em on data, not emotion. So, when HTR speaks, it pays to listen.