K- line again

[OPM]

I know we looked at where horses are below the K- line in real betting odds. How about when the k-line is lower than the ML odds, do these horse win more than their share of races?

[km]

That is an excellent source of overlays OPM, particarly in the horizontal exotics (Pick3,4,6). But don't bother with that comparison if there have been scratches in the race that have rendered the MLO useless.

If the KLine is LOWER than the (un-scratched) MLO, it means the MLO maker has probably underestimated the chances of the horse. However, I have noticed that the public rarely falls for it and the bad MLO is usually bet lower in the straight pools. But if the overlay is found in a later sequence of the pick3 or 4, the chances are good that payoff will reflect the poor MLO, not the eventual win pool.

Continue to stay alert to those, good reminder O'.

[OPM]

I've been looking at this but not as closely as I should. Obviously, the smaller tracks where the ML are not that good should be treated with caution but most B tracks and above should definitely be looked at. You can definitely do it even with scratches since you just look at the line before any scratches and see if the K line has the horse higher or lower. I really don't care if ML is 3-1 and K- line is 5/2 but I do care if ML is 15-1 and K- line is 10-1.

Ken, great work with the new update and I hope to meet you guys are the Orleans(k-line about 10-1!!!).