The Kline and Overlays

[Victor]

Some very interesting results using the Robot:

Selecting a specific Kline odds range and selecting "Test Overlays Only"

Looking forward to learning more about this.

[Inglewood Flamingo]

I have been testing like mad since the seminar with the ROBOT and the K Line and I have not seen any increased overall results with the overlays versus the non overlay testing. What has been other users experiences? I can't see the logic as to why this would not test out significantly better than without an odds requirement.

[Victor]

My question is, first, what is an 'overlay' as far as the Robot is concerned, the exact definition?

Here's what I am finding,

July 10th through August 2

rKrat=1
and nAODD is plus or minus 1 of the nKLine value:

Total Bets 2880
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount Bet 5760.00 5760.00 5760.00
Wins 885 1523 1904
Pct. 30.73% 52.88% 66.11%
Amount Won 4929.80 5120.50 5213.60
Profit/Loss -830.20 -639.50 -546.40
Pct Profit Loss -14.41% -11.10% -9.49%
Avg. Payout 5.57 3.36 2.74

Suppose nAODD is > [nKLine] + 1

Total Bets 1082
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount Bet 2164.00 2164.00 2164.00
Wins 163 345 493
Pct. 15.06% 31.89% 45.56%
Amount Won 1924.80 1919.40 1896.50
Profit/Loss -239.20 -244.60 -267.50
Pct Profit Loss -11.05% -11.30% -12.36%
Avg. Payout 11.81 5.56 3.85

Now suppose nAODD is < [nKLine] -1

Total Bets 1030
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount Bet 2060.00 2060.00 2060.00
Wins 439 657 779
Pct. 42.62% 63.79% 75.63%
Amount Won 1708.30 1857.40 1914.70
Profit/Loss -351.70 -202.60 -145.30
Pct Profit Loss -17.07% -9.83% -7.05%
Avg. Payout 3.89 2.83 2.46

[Inglewood Flamingo]

Good Question!

[dcox7]

I have done these test at La. tracks (LAD/EVD) and have found overlays to be a negative on the ROI. Very puzzling!

[Inglewood Flamingo]

DCOX7, What were the ROI's compared to the test runs without the overlay requirement? Better or worse?

[Victor]

dcox7,

These overlays may be track specific. The stables could be pounding the winners down at places like EVD or LAD. This could mean do as the Romans do if that's where you happen to be . . . :) The nKLine could be a gauge of what the price SHOULD be, and depending upon where you're playing, a divergence could mean one thing or it could mean the other.

[Inglewood Flamingo]

The point I was trying to make was that if play is restricted to "overlays" only the results should always be better, not worse. The K Line should give users a better return when used to abstain from play on under valued horses.

[Victor]

Inglewood Flamingo,

Generally I would agree, but I think we could also test the arguement that if a horse figures to be bet and is not, then perhaps that horse is actually a bad bet.

[Inglewood Flamingo]

I would agree with that 100%. It kind of begs the question are odds lines necessary to win?

[dcox7]

For example; at EVD all K1 plays show an ROI of .77 but check the overlay box and the ROI drops to .67, that is a significant drop, since my data goes back to the start of the meet in early April. I have a couple of spot plays I use at EVD but even they do better when an underlay.

Your point about barns hammerin their horse is probably right on!

Did anyone see the 14+ k trifecta that hit at Retama late last nite? Very little on the HTR screens to recommend it though.

[Victor]

rKrat=1
and
rWKSC=1

ALL tracks
ALL races
ALL everything . . .

Total Bets 797
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount Bet 1594.00 1594.00 1594.00
Wins 255 447 542
Pct. 31.99% 56.09% 68.01%
Amount Won 1334.50 1508.80 1486.20
Profit/Loss -259.50 -85.20 -107.80
Pct Profit Loss -16.28% -5.35% -6.76%
Avg. Payout 5.23 3.38 2.74

if nAODD < [nKLine] - 1 (Underlay)

Total Bets 203
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount Bet 406.00 406.00 406.00
Wins 88 135 161
Pct. 43.35% 66.50% 79.31%
Amount Won 324.80 374.40 389.80
Profit/Loss -81.20 -31.60 -16.20
Pct Profit Loss -20.00% -7.78% -3.99%
Avg. Payout 3.69 2.77 2.42

if nAODD > [nKLine] +1 (Overlay)

Total Bets 134
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount Bet 268.00 268.00 268.00
Wins 22 52 69
Pct. 16.42% 38.81% 51.49%
Amount Won 262.70 291.10 259.50
Profit/Loss -5.30 23.10 -8.50
Pct Profit Loss -1.98% 8.62% -3.17%
Avg. Payout 11.94 5.60 3.76

BIG difference.

[Inglewood Flamingo]

By cutting the win% in half and the small sample size I would have to say that those results are volatile. The underlaid win % is amazing though. We need a bigger sample but I don't have the charts for a years worth of races. Good thread to be sure!