Huguenot
17th June 2004, 05:48.20 PM
IN another note I described how SOR helped me on Belmont Day key in on longshots. In my
continuing research I have found some keys in using SOR. There are four and I will detail three of them. The fourth -- a critical piece to the puzzle -- isn't that difficult to figure out, but I can't do ALL the work.
;)
Next step is to try and work this into a spot play method.
1. Whenever possible, compare same distance structure and surface, using fast tracks. (I'll use "good" in a pinch if I think a horse doesn't move up on a wet track.) Horses with SORs of 105 in 6f races can not be compared with horses with 102 in distance races. I found some evidence that 7f and 8.5 f at Belmont are somewhat comparable since both are around 1 turn, (a horse with a 105 SOR at 7f paid $11 against a horse with a 102 at 8.5f in an 8.5f race. Three points is a huge gap, but if it were just one point, I wouldn't be as confident.)
2. Use relatively recent races. Horses with top SORs off long layoffs are unreliable. My cutoff is 120 days or so. (If horses are 3rd off a layoff and seem to be rounding into prior form, you might want to look at the prior SOR but it's not as reliable as current ones.) One reason for this is that horses who race against better company might improve much as does your tennis game if you play a better opponent. They get a good conditioner -- unless it takes TOO MUCH out of them. Be on the look out for horses with excellent SORs coming off Tops in the speed figures. I like to see at least 4 weeks between a top depending on a) how big the top was b) how the horse responded to tops in between c) a trainer's record with horse off big tape (how good their drugs are.) Two point gaps in SOR are significant and even 1 point is a decent edge.
3. Compare the velocity figs for the SOR races. Just because a horse comes out of a 105 SOR vs. a horse who was in a 101 SOR doesn't mean the 105 will win if his figures are lower. Try to find horses who's IMPACT totals are no more than 5 points below the other (roughly two lengths)
SOmetimes you'll find opportunities outside the confines of the rules. This is a game where you have to improvise sometimes. Example, Wednesday Belmont 9th race. After chucking the obvious cripples, the 10 had a nice SOR in a turf race where lots of horses had no turf form.
There were no stickouts on pedigree or anything. He won at 4-1.
I wasn't upset he was a K1 and had a top jock aboard and had the early speed to stay out of trouble in a 12-horse race. If I have support for a good SOR, that just gives me even more confidence.
One final piece of advice: Don't force bets. If two low-priced horses have a good edge on the field, don't fish for longshots. A top SOR along with a good form cycle, some consistency, and the right pace picture is an excellent formula for a legitimate favorite who can even be singled in serial bets. I'm not sure yet, but I'm starting to think I should bet no lower than the 2nd best SOR especially if there's a two-point gap below it. If the two are the betting favorites, it's a pass. No trying to stick a longshot in there with a good SOR from 6 months ago that might recapture old glory.
Example, Belmont 3rd on Wed: Grey Traffic had a huge SOR edge and good figures and a 39-day rest off her 2nd lifetime start, a top. Frankel, KR 1 and 1-5. The picture of a horse that couldn't lose. Except it was an E in a race with a ton of speed and the lone S, Taittenger, with a decent SOR, picked up the pieces. If you're betting low-priced horses, pace really matters. I'll let it slide more with higher-priced horses as we all do in our handicapping.
Also, SOR has not worked the same way in the cheaper tracks like CT and MNR and Penn as it has in the majors. Different methods will likely apply for horses who keep their form for about 1 race. Since the best prices come from those tracks I'd love to crack the code.
continuing research I have found some keys in using SOR. There are four and I will detail three of them. The fourth -- a critical piece to the puzzle -- isn't that difficult to figure out, but I can't do ALL the work.
;)
Next step is to try and work this into a spot play method.
1. Whenever possible, compare same distance structure and surface, using fast tracks. (I'll use "good" in a pinch if I think a horse doesn't move up on a wet track.) Horses with SORs of 105 in 6f races can not be compared with horses with 102 in distance races. I found some evidence that 7f and 8.5 f at Belmont are somewhat comparable since both are around 1 turn, (a horse with a 105 SOR at 7f paid $11 against a horse with a 102 at 8.5f in an 8.5f race. Three points is a huge gap, but if it were just one point, I wouldn't be as confident.)
2. Use relatively recent races. Horses with top SORs off long layoffs are unreliable. My cutoff is 120 days or so. (If horses are 3rd off a layoff and seem to be rounding into prior form, you might want to look at the prior SOR but it's not as reliable as current ones.) One reason for this is that horses who race against better company might improve much as does your tennis game if you play a better opponent. They get a good conditioner -- unless it takes TOO MUCH out of them. Be on the look out for horses with excellent SORs coming off Tops in the speed figures. I like to see at least 4 weeks between a top depending on a) how big the top was b) how the horse responded to tops in between c) a trainer's record with horse off big tape (how good their drugs are.) Two point gaps in SOR are significant and even 1 point is a decent edge.
3. Compare the velocity figs for the SOR races. Just because a horse comes out of a 105 SOR vs. a horse who was in a 101 SOR doesn't mean the 105 will win if his figures are lower. Try to find horses who's IMPACT totals are no more than 5 points below the other (roughly two lengths)
SOmetimes you'll find opportunities outside the confines of the rules. This is a game where you have to improvise sometimes. Example, Wednesday Belmont 9th race. After chucking the obvious cripples, the 10 had a nice SOR in a turf race where lots of horses had no turf form.
There were no stickouts on pedigree or anything. He won at 4-1.
I wasn't upset he was a K1 and had a top jock aboard and had the early speed to stay out of trouble in a 12-horse race. If I have support for a good SOR, that just gives me even more confidence.
One final piece of advice: Don't force bets. If two low-priced horses have a good edge on the field, don't fish for longshots. A top SOR along with a good form cycle, some consistency, and the right pace picture is an excellent formula for a legitimate favorite who can even be singled in serial bets. I'm not sure yet, but I'm starting to think I should bet no lower than the 2nd best SOR especially if there's a two-point gap below it. If the two are the betting favorites, it's a pass. No trying to stick a longshot in there with a good SOR from 6 months ago that might recapture old glory.
Example, Belmont 3rd on Wed: Grey Traffic had a huge SOR edge and good figures and a 39-day rest off her 2nd lifetime start, a top. Frankel, KR 1 and 1-5. The picture of a horse that couldn't lose. Except it was an E in a race with a ton of speed and the lone S, Taittenger, with a decent SOR, picked up the pieces. If you're betting low-priced horses, pace really matters. I'll let it slide more with higher-priced horses as we all do in our handicapping.
Also, SOR has not worked the same way in the cheaper tracks like CT and MNR and Penn as it has in the majors. Different methods will likely apply for horses who keep their form for about 1 race. Since the best prices come from those tracks I'd love to crack the code.