Pacelines/Verify

[Bruce]

Has anyone "verified" pacelines by using both 1 and 5 or combining two others. That is, if your horse is strong on BOTH methods it's a better bet?
Seems like it might act as a potential fail-safe against funky paceline selection

Bruce

[George]

Bruce......a good thought. On other than lightly raced horses PL1 and PL5 normally give opposing answers. PL1 is recent pace and PL5 is usually affected by an exceptional race way back.

So don't think both in agreement means much in most cases.

Best PL is go mark two best races similar to todays and "create" your own PL average.
Realize not everyone has the time to do their own.

[Ken Massa]

Bruce, I have tested a million variations of the paceline methods. Even making a consensus of them all. Nothing beats using #5 in the long haul. In the short run, it is always a case of "six of one half a dozen of the other" as each method finds a hot streak at some track or in some period of time. Even picking random lines (yes I tested that one too) has its day.

Best bet is to choose the one that makes the most sense to you and stay with it. That way the pattern recognition and testing remain consistent. Overall, none of the methods proves far superior to the others and the simple last line mode-1 is as reliable as any for finding winners with velocity figures. I use (5) out of habit and the fact that it does maintain a slight edge statistically on the others.