I've lost it. Progession Wagering....

[Glen]

As nutty as this sounds, I have been pretty impressed, shocked and chagrined, amazed and so on about this little progressive thing I have been tracking. I’ve read all the books and heard all the arguments that progressive wagering does not work. I have always agreed because it makes sense. After all if you can’t make a profit on flat betting, you can’t make a profit period!!! Right, I have always thought so, but in limited play, I have found losers can be winners....To be a little contrarian, a couple weeks ago I decided to go ahead and track what I call low slope progressive betting....Low slope=lower risk progression.

This is the format that I have been following:

1) PROGRESSION BY ONE UNIT AT A TIME
From what I understand, typical progressive methods entail almost doubling your best next out. This is good if you hit, but if you lose 10 or 15 in a row, you will eventually come to a bet that you can not make. Or at least a bet that is not within my financial means. So to make an adjustment to this, after a loss I increase my bet amount by one unit.

For example,

bet $2, if it loses next bet is $4, if it loses next bet is $6, if it wins then next bet is $2.

2) PLAY HIGH PERCENTAGE HTR FACTORS
At a handful of tracks, there are HTR factors that win about 30% to 40% that come close or exceed a positive ROI. Without “handicapping” I select via the modeler the best HTR factor for the track. It might be PSCAN, HTR Consensus, Jockey, or so on. I personally feel it is best to pick just one HTR factor and stick with it. Trying to zig zag between factors will cause me to cut when I should jib and jib when I should cut. Playing a single non pace related factor should yield me the most consistency. On a side note, HTR doesn’t work well at all tracks so pick tracks like SAR, DMR, CRC, and LAD where HTR factors are performing real well.

3) PLAY ALL THE RACES ON THE CARD
Except where your selection goes off at less than even money (thanks Ron for the idea). Sounds crazy right? But if you increase the number of plays you have, you will increase your ROI (assuming you are winning). Similar to the effect of compounding interest.

4) QUIT WHEN YOU GET YOU ARE UP
The handful of times I have taken this live I have quit after hitting a nice score after losing 5 or ten races in a row. Technically speaking, if you hit a 3-1 or 4-1 with a $20, $30, $50, or $100 bet on progression, you will be up after the hit. Pack your bags, kiss the pretty waitresses good bye and go home.

Yes, I know, you guys think I have lost my mind...Maybe but I am sure enjoying this little quest...Maybe my opinion will change after time.

Feel free to fire shots or make comments...But I would recommend that as nutty as it sounds, give it a run on paper and see what happens

[hurrikane]

So, have you gotten to a bet you didn't feel comfortable making. What is the longest losing streak you experienced so far Glen?

[Glen]

At DMR and SAR, the biggest bet using $5 progression has been about $40. On $3 progession at other tracks I've gone up to $42 I beleive.

Example from most recent SAR races
Date R# D/S Par Horse Qp RS Ev Lv VEL CLA (K) HTR PScan_r $Pay MLr
------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
30Jul 09 9.0D 104 Win 3 P 9 1 1 1 2 3 0.0 1 07 1
30Jul 08 8.5T 104 Win 4 P 7 1 2 2 1 1 0.0 1 04 1
30Jul 07 6.0D 102 Win 7 *E 2 4 2 1 1 1 0.0 1 03 1 _
30Jul 06 8.5T 104 Win 1 S 7 6 8 7 8 7 -6.9 8 77 8 _
30Jul 05 8.0T 102 Win 7 E 6 4 1 8 3 1 -2.6 6 21 5 _
30Jul 04 5.0D 096 Win 3 *P x x x 5 4 3 -0.2 2 18 4 _
30Jul 03 7.0D 101 Win 7 E 4 3 2 1 1 1 0.0 1 04 2 _
30Jul 02 5.5D 096 Win 2 P 1 1 1 5 2 1 -2.0 6 11 5 _
30Jul 01 8.5T 104 Win 5 P 2 5 4 2 2 3 -1.9 4 06 2 _
29Jul 10 7.0D 104 Win 1 S 7 5 9 9 6 7 -0.1 2 05 1 _
29Jul 09 9.0D 106 Win 1 S 8 3 4 7 7 5 -7.1 7 18 7 _
29Jul 08 9.0D 105 Win 7 *E 1 7 3 5 3 4 -0.5 2 09 2 _
29Jul 07 8.0T 102 Win 5 P 5 2 1 7 5 2 -2.0 5 06 5 _
29Jul 06 6.0D 093 Win 2 P 6 5 6 3 5 7 -0.6 3 11 4 _
29Jul 05 8.5T 101 Win 6 *F 4 6 1 1 2 2 -0.4 2 10 1 _
29Jul 04 8.0T 101 Win 4 P 4 2 1 1 1 1 0.0 1 04 1 _
29Jul 03 6.0D 093 Win 6 P 1 1 1 2 3 3 0.0 1 04 1 _
29Jul 02 9.0D 102 Win 4 *P 1 1 1 1 2 1 0.0 1 05 2 _
29Jul 01 8.5T 103 Win 7 P 5 9 9 1 4 6 -3.1 8 28 6 _


Just looking at the last handful of races at SAR. Bet $2 progression on the just top HTR consensus.

Progression
Bet $102
Win $162
1.59 ROI

vs

Flat Bet
Bet $38
Win $52
1.37 ROI

[George]

Glen asked about "dutching" on selections thread and I thought this would be a good place to answer.

I like Glen's progression approach and tried it at the otb last weekend. Had a nice hit late and made more than I would have flat betting the day.

When attempting to "hedge" or "dutch" a race many of Glen's points on progression apply. Works better at major tracks. Must be able to hit a high overall win percentage. Limiting selection process to a few composite HTR factors.

My reason for using the approach at SAR is because of the closeness of the competition. Most races there it is very difficult to single out one horse.

Method being used:
1) Primarily dirt claiming (sprint or route)
2) PL3 (avg of best two of last three)
3) Consider top 4 HTR consensus # as contenders
4) Check VEL (Score) for best 3
5) Check PRB for best 3
6) not necessary but I check my jockey db for record at SAR in this type race last year

After above process usually have two to three contenders that could win.

In live betting would hedge those based on odds near post. In our selection contest have been hedging based on who I liked the most.
Usually bet 55% of race unit on top choice, 25% on second choice and 20% on third. If only two choices go 60% and 40%.

[Bruce]

Anyone know of a good freeware dutching/hedging program on the Web?

bruce

[Carl]

O.K., first slam Glen.

1) You are still dealing with a simple mathematical certainty, with simple (although not so simple I know them) formulas. NDJ, Barry Meadow or Glenny could tell you in an instant what number of losers you could expect in how many tries at what percentage by plugging into a formula. I looked in Barry Meadow's "Money Secrets At the Race Track" but he only covers 50% winners (where your chance of a 20 run losing streak is almost nil) or 25% winners (where you will have a 20 race losing streak .3% of the time, or once in every 300 plays).

2) Are you comfortable making the correct bet after 19 losers? If so, it should outperform flat betting, and it sounds like at 40% winners you probably only have about 1 chance in a 1000 of losing 20 in a row anyway. (Of course, the bets have no memory, so you will have only a 40% chance of winning that 20th bet in any case).

3) Quitting for the day is cool, but a new day is starting somewhere's on this crazy planet every minute, and whether you "start again in the manana" or start again immediately with your base bet would seem to me to be academic. Again, the bets have no memory.

4) Do I think it is "the right thing to do"? Sure, as long as you enjoy it and are having fun.

5) What you are practicing could better be called a "Ponzi" than a "progressive system" though.

Ponzi was an Italian with a roulette system where he would bet one unit on red. If he won, he would quit for the day. If he lost, he would bet one unit + plus one unit on the red next time, and so on, the idea being that sometime before he tapped out the wheel would come up red and he would eventually win one unit, even if it was on his 25th try. Afterall, what are the chances of the wheel coming up black 25 times in a row?

As far as I know, Ponzi died broke but did get a system named after him.....hehe.

Good luck and above all else have fun!

later,
Carl

[George]

George Green has a nice free download called "hedgehog" on GREEN THINGS website.

His better version costs $75.

Think url is crowncity.com/speedplus but in any case should be easy to find on search engine.

[fred4now]

Bruce

Send me your E-mail through the board for dutching program.

[fred4now]

If you toss a horse 100 times in the air, how many times will it land on its head?

[Bruce]

Originally posted by fred4now
Bruce

Send me your E-mail through the board for dutching program.

stiller41@hotmail.com

Thanks............

[hurrikane]

Fred...great question

It's just a guess but I'd say 50% on the head....50% on the tail. :D

[Glen]

Good points Carl. As far as losing races...Lost 13 in a row Sunday...Then hit on a $42 bet and was up for the day. Yes, it is uncomfortable but also rewarding...In a way I kinda root for my bets to lose when they are 8/5 and so that I can make a larger more rewarding bet on a higher priced horse...Kinda sick in a way...:confused:

Initially wanted to do progressive play when playing daily longshot plays...Why becuase I knew I couldn't hit two winners in a row. After a win, it was almost like the next bet was worthless cause the odds were very slim I was going to hit two nice priced horses in a row. But the reality of progressive wagering on longshots was instant death to my bankroll. No way it could handle it...Even at $2 progression....

[Glen]

Originally posted by fred4now
If you toss a horse 100 times in the air, how many times will it land on its head?


Zero!!! I hear horses are like cats...Throw them off a building and they always land on their feet. Maybe we can send Letterman an email and see if he can include a horse next time he decides to toss a watermellon or TV from a tall structure...maybe not...

[George]

Glen..........have been paper testing your "mild" progression on a factor set that hits close to 60% and on one that hits 42%. Was surprised how often the 60% misses eight or nine in a row and the 42% goes zip fer 15 often.

My point is think one must decide in advance how far to go on total dollars invested before saying this one is over and resetting back to the initial level. Dividing bank into four or more "sessions" and limiting loss to one session might be a good plan.

What are your thoughts on this ??

[Glen]

Good points George. I must say I was not really prepaired/expecting to lose 13 in a row last Sunday.

What I did was set two separate bankrolls. One for SAR and DMR using $5 progression and another bankroll for CRC, LAD, MTH, and AP using $3 progression. The $3 progression tracks lost 13 in a row but I was mixing and matching factors there. For example, I think on MTH routes I was using PER and on LAD turf routes using POW (PL1). So basically, I was looking at the highest performing factors based for the following on a per track basis.

1) Dirt Sprints
2) Dirt Routes
3) Turf Routes

Which is against what I posted above. But I wanted to be "smart" and try to better my edge. The problem with this approach is you have regression to the mean. Where as just playing a single factor for all races (like HTR Consensus) will always for the most part land you 28% to 35% winners on the better tracks.

[Carl]

Originally posted by Glen
Good points Carl. As far as losing races...Lost 13 in a row Sunday...Then hit on a $42 bet and was up for the day.

Initially wanted to do progressive play when playing daily longshot plays...Why becuase I knew I couldn't hit two winners in a row. After a win, it was almost like the next bet was worthless cause the odds were very slim I was going to hit two nice priced horses in a row. But the reality of progressive wagering on longshots was instant death to my bankroll. No way it could handle it...Even at $2 progression....

I find my plays (which average around 15% winners) to be very streaky , and I while I have 20 to 30 race losing streaks fairly frequently, I also find that to win four out six races somedays is not that uncommon either.

So while you feel your next bet after a winner is "worthless", that is the bet that I like the best. I hate the bet while on a 20 race losing stretch, it feels to me like I will NEVER win another race.

And yet we are observing the same phenomena. Funny huh?

later,
Carl

[Ron]

Glen;

I noticed that you've been keeping a log of all your daily " progressive sessions" and tracking your wins and losses.

Do you happen to know how many sessions you've won and what the average amount was won?

Also, how many sessions have you lost and what was that amount?

Where I'm going with this is;.....at some point when there will be a sequence where you will go 0 for....??and the next wager will be out of your comfort zone,......where are you prepared to stop the session and start a new one?

The idea being that with a reasonable "stop loss" amount in place, even an occasional bad session can be abosorbed by all the good ones and you will still show a positive return.

Yes,....no..?


Ron

[hurrikane]

Only problem I see with the stop loss is I just know if I was doing it when ever the stop loss kicked in I know I would win the next race and only have 2 bucks on it. Kind of defeats the whole progressive idea.

[Glen]

Good question Ron.

I'm not a heavy better....Don't know if I ever will be...But on progression in real life, I play $2 or $3 progressions...So far it's been good for $50 to $100 a day. At SAR and DMR I have been playing $5 Progressions....Last night for example, I spend a few hours at LS and bet $260 and won $361. Up $100 for the day. I know it's not a lot, but honestly I am still skeptical and not willing to bet the farm on this progressive thing. But I don't mind the additional income. Gives me extra fun money to go and blow on eating out or whatever I might spend my money on...But so far in real life or paper, I have yet to get crushed...

As far as the majority of my real money it goes into the P4. And I don't forsee that changing as things have gone far better than I could ever hope for.

[Glen]

Fri night real life results: 2 hours of fishing
Bet $101
Won $106

$5...Not enough to pay for value meal at Whataburger, but had fun.

[fred4now]

Glen, been watching results of this thread and think the factor you are using must be positive ROI for that track even if it only 1.01 for this to work in the long run. Think if ROI for flat betting is positive the progression will pay more, but if ROI is negative will lose more.

[Glen]

F4N,

That might be true...But if that is the case, then I have been on a tremendous streak of betting every race and showing a positive roi on flat betting. Something that I am not capeable of doing. To date in real life betting, I've only had one losing day (-$50) in about 7 or so attempts. But, I do try to end my day after a win .