Number of Factors In A Spot Play

[HBee]

How many factors are too many? At some point, aren't we truly backfitting if we go to nine or ten factors or more?

How many factors do you use in your successful spot plays?

My spot plays seem to project good things, but live play doesn't live up to expectations.

[km]

'bee - it is not so much the number of factors, but the sample size. My goal is always 500 or more for a 1yr period. If you can get 1000, it is certainly not a backfit.

If you get less than 100 plays (for all tracks) that produce a high ROI then you have probably discovered a backfit. But 100 plays at a single track may be a good one, yet by the time you get more than 50, the meet is usually over.

Another element is the win%. If it is low (under 20%) and the ROI is high, then the majority of winners are longshots. You gotta be there for all the big winners going forward or the ROI is meaningless. Let's say I miss the $180 bomb from my super longshot spot-play some Tues night at MNR because I was practicing ballet twirls - now my spot play ROI just took a dump!

If you are going to go for bombs, forget spot plays; approach it from the "live longshot" ($+$$) in/ Low Vi race which can occur anytime you are betting the horses.

I have big help for the spot-play research coming in HTR2 release this summer. Research and produce your own daily spot plays instantly.

[HBee]

Thanks, Ken.

I'm looking forward to the summer release.

Herman

[hurrikane]

kane's 2 cents.....

be careful about backfitting. You see something and think 'if I add this'...then it looks good. They will cost.

I like what I heard from Rick one time, "if you have more the 5 factors you can fit an elephant into it". That would mostly apply to race specific factors....fr1, lv1...etc.

Now, I'm sitting here eating dinner and I have this image of Massa doing 'ballet twirls'. I think I'm going to go drink. :D