Sar 7/30/01

[Carl]

Think I'll save $10 today, buy a Hot Dog and Beer.

SAR r1 h4
SAR r3 h6
SAR r4 h3

$30 to win on each please. $90 total.

Results to date:
$ bet------------------$300
$ collected------------$300
ROI $1.00 for every $1.00 bet.

Nice capping George. And Glen, maybe I'll use that for my epitaph:

"He defined the odds by hanging out for a while, then REGRESSED TO THE MEAN."

later,
Carl

[Glen]

$4 Prog. Wag.

1sar3...bet 4...out
2sar1...bet 8...win 44
3sar2...bet 4...2nd
4sar11..bet 8...out
5sar9...bet 12..2nd
6sar6...bet 16..out
7sar3...bet 20..out
8sar8...bet 24..win 44.40
9sar10..bet 4...out

YTD:
Bet $308
Won $437.40

ROI 1.42

[George]

Have a feeling I may regress to "norm" today.

Race 1
$16 win # 2 2nd
$12 win # 1 won $6.00 = $36.00
$8 win # 6

Race 3
$16 win # 3
$12 win # 1 won $4.20 = $25.20

Race 7
$16 win # 6 won $3.40 = $27.20
$12 win # 3
$8 win # 1

$100 bet
$88.40 return

Saratoga thru 7/29
$400 bet
$720 won
$320 net
$1.80 roi

Saratoga thru 7/30
$500 bet
$808.40 won
$308.40 net
$1.62 roi

Have "cashed" 12 of 12 races since start by dutching.
Hit 12 of 28 bets for 43% win rate with 1.62 roi.
Rapidly regressing to "norm".

[hurrikane]

*(^#*# w**k

race 2
$10 wp 3

race 3
$10 wp #5

$10 ex bx 5-6-7

if something wins I'll be back to bet more..

[MtKen]

R1

15 ex boxes 8/126

$10 8

[MtKen]

Well that was quik......0 for 5 now.......-$500

Better go fishing.

BOL

[hurrikane]

Let me get my pole and go with you Ken.

bet 340
won 269
net -71
ROI .79

[MikeDee]

George coule you re-psot that ROI formula that youuse to get the ROI expressed to a $?

thanks

[George]

Mike....the formula is easy but answer can be stated two ways.

Total dollars returned divided by total dollars bet.
ie; won $820 / $500 = $1.64 to $1.00

To express percent won subtract 1.00 from above answer.
ie; $1.64 - 1.00 = 64%

A losing day would be $480 returned on $500 bet 480/500 = 0.96
Percent is 0.96 - 1.00 = 0.04- or minus 4%

Most people use the first formula but am surprised how many think they
are at 264% when at $2.64 to $1.00 when in reality they are winning
at a 164% rate.

Most players report using the first formula.
Hope the above is clear.

[George]

Just noticed Glen and me got the exact same dollars returned yesterday using two different wagering approaches, dutching versus progressive. Both returned $88.40 in a losing day.

So far dutching has a 62% profit and progressive a 29% profit. Both methods have outperformed flat betting our selections.

Will be interesting to see how both do compared to flat bets for the meet.

[Glen]

Yeah George, been thinking about that...Could you elaborate a little on your dutching method? I'll go ahead a write up a little about this progressive thing.