Carl
28th July 2001, 11:00.32 AM
This is a sort of continuation of the "Request for Info" tread.
The story today for newbies:
1) Mike posted a quote from Gordon Pine's Newsletter:
"At Colonial Downs, early pace is important. The horse that figures to be in front at the second call wins 28% more than it should given its odds (has an A/E of 1.28), and generates a 1.09 ROI (9 cents profit for each dollar bet). (These stats are derived from a handicapping program I designed.) It’s also a track favorable to longshots: Over-achievers have an A/E of 1.20 and an ROI of 1.02. Pretty good predictors. But take these same predictors to another meet: at Arlington Park, the top second call horse has a .81 A/E and a .69 ROI. Over-achievers have a .92 A/E and a .79 ROI. So, at Arlington, one predictor earns 40 cents less per dollar and the other earns 23 cents less per dollar than at Colonial."
2) Carl glibbly replied:
"I am sure Gordon is right about what has happened at Colonial and Arlington. "
3) Carl should know better. About the only "sure" here is Carl should check his facts before being "sure" of anything. Duh.
4) Anyway, Carl did run the first 22 days of July rEP1 for both CNL and AP, and got TOTALLY different results than Gordon reported. (Yeah, I know, probably different time period, different data provider, etc.) Anyway, by way of my records anyone who followed rEP1 at CNL over the last three weeks is now broker by a considerable amount.
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
CNL----rEP1 July 1-July 22nd, 2001 pl1.
Total Bets-------------------129
Total Amount Bet-------------258.00
Wins-------------------------20
Pct.-------------------------15.50%
Amount Won-------------------147.80
Profit/Loss------------------(-110.20)
Pct Profit Loss--------------(-42.71%)
Avg. Payout------------------7.39
And AP, while slightly better, is no hell either.
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
AP rEP1 July 1-July 22nd 2001 pl1.
Total Bets-----------------------152
Total Amount Bet-----------------304.00
Wins-----------------------------28
Pct.-----------------------------18.42%
Amount Won-----------------------243.20
Profit/Loss---------------------(-60.80)
Pct Profit Loss-----------------(-20.00%)
Avg. Payout---------------------8.69
Anyway, I will do a seven day report (July 23-30th) on Monday, see if they reverse or do whatever.
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Which leads me to point two, which is a shameless plug for HTR, but in a strange sort of way..
1) When I first started here about 18 months ago, Ken had posted the results of a 1100 race turf study, whereby he found that 90% of the winners had two characteristics. I remember them as
A. Within 4 of the par numbers of the class entered in and
B. One of the top 5 LV horses.
2) I didn't know how to do db at the time, but I checked 100 or so turf races manually and found these numbers to be vastly overinflated, and posted so on the old board. A few of the other poster who had db's checked, and agreed with me.
3) I e-mailed Ken a few times, all hot and bothered, accusing him of giving out "false information".
4) Ken was amazing. Believe it or not, he thanked me for checking, told me that I did the right thing, and that I "should never believe anything I read without checking it first". Not quite the response I expected! (Well, anyway, it was not the response I would have given to someone who just accused me of "falsely posting incorrect data".)
5) Upshoot of it was, Ken had taken his numbers from a lot of summer "big time turf tracks", I was looking at Tampa Bay/Turf Paridise type tracks. This explained at least part of the difference.
So, sometimes we all post stuff that turns out to be untrue (yes me too). The interesting part for me is how we react when someone points it out. Some of us thank the person, some get huffy. I like buying my data from a store where the owner thanks me.....
later,
Carl
The story today for newbies:
1) Mike posted a quote from Gordon Pine's Newsletter:
"At Colonial Downs, early pace is important. The horse that figures to be in front at the second call wins 28% more than it should given its odds (has an A/E of 1.28), and generates a 1.09 ROI (9 cents profit for each dollar bet). (These stats are derived from a handicapping program I designed.) It’s also a track favorable to longshots: Over-achievers have an A/E of 1.20 and an ROI of 1.02. Pretty good predictors. But take these same predictors to another meet: at Arlington Park, the top second call horse has a .81 A/E and a .69 ROI. Over-achievers have a .92 A/E and a .79 ROI. So, at Arlington, one predictor earns 40 cents less per dollar and the other earns 23 cents less per dollar than at Colonial."
2) Carl glibbly replied:
"I am sure Gordon is right about what has happened at Colonial and Arlington. "
3) Carl should know better. About the only "sure" here is Carl should check his facts before being "sure" of anything. Duh.
4) Anyway, Carl did run the first 22 days of July rEP1 for both CNL and AP, and got TOTALLY different results than Gordon reported. (Yeah, I know, probably different time period, different data provider, etc.) Anyway, by way of my records anyone who followed rEP1 at CNL over the last three weeks is now broker by a considerable amount.
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
CNL----rEP1 July 1-July 22nd, 2001 pl1.
Total Bets-------------------129
Total Amount Bet-------------258.00
Wins-------------------------20
Pct.-------------------------15.50%
Amount Won-------------------147.80
Profit/Loss------------------(-110.20)
Pct Profit Loss--------------(-42.71%)
Avg. Payout------------------7.39
And AP, while slightly better, is no hell either.
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
AP rEP1 July 1-July 22nd 2001 pl1.
Total Bets-----------------------152
Total Amount Bet-----------------304.00
Wins-----------------------------28
Pct.-----------------------------18.42%
Amount Won-----------------------243.20
Profit/Loss---------------------(-60.80)
Pct Profit Loss-----------------(-20.00%)
Avg. Payout---------------------8.69
Anyway, I will do a seven day report (July 23-30th) on Monday, see if they reverse or do whatever.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Which leads me to point two, which is a shameless plug for HTR, but in a strange sort of way..
1) When I first started here about 18 months ago, Ken had posted the results of a 1100 race turf study, whereby he found that 90% of the winners had two characteristics. I remember them as
A. Within 4 of the par numbers of the class entered in and
B. One of the top 5 LV horses.
2) I didn't know how to do db at the time, but I checked 100 or so turf races manually and found these numbers to be vastly overinflated, and posted so on the old board. A few of the other poster who had db's checked, and agreed with me.
3) I e-mailed Ken a few times, all hot and bothered, accusing him of giving out "false information".
4) Ken was amazing. Believe it or not, he thanked me for checking, told me that I did the right thing, and that I "should never believe anything I read without checking it first". Not quite the response I expected! (Well, anyway, it was not the response I would have given to someone who just accused me of "falsely posting incorrect data".)
5) Upshoot of it was, Ken had taken his numbers from a lot of summer "big time turf tracks", I was looking at Tampa Bay/Turf Paridise type tracks. This explained at least part of the difference.
So, sometimes we all post stuff that turns out to be untrue (yes me too). The interesting part for me is how we react when someone points it out. Some of us thank the person, some get huffy. I like buying my data from a store where the owner thanks me.....
later,
Carl