Pyramid of Class Chart

[Ron]

I've been reviewing the Pyramid of Class Chart that was provided at the last HTR seminar.
I have a few questions about it.

The lowest par at the base of the pyramid is 80.
The next level is marked at 91.
The next remaining level marks occur at 100, 104, 108, 112 and 115.

My questions:

I assume that 80 to 90 are within the same level but does it include 91 as well?

Another way to ask it is:

are the class levels: 80-90, 91-95, 96-99, etc. OR...are they
80-91, 92-96, 97-100 etc.

Is there a significant difference at the break to each of these
levels where when we see it can safely eliminate the horse as a win
position contender, or am I splitting hairs here?

Ron

[Ken Massa]

Ron, the pyramid chart was designed to illustrate the difficulty that thoroughbreds have in penetrating the 'glass ceiling' of their current class level. The chart is not designed to be an analytical tool for deterimining when a horse is moving up or down in class. Use the HTR par for that.

In the end, very few horses defy their early classification and move up the ladder significantly.
Look at the most recent win for any horse over age 3 - look at the par for the race he won. Unlikely this runner will ever compete willingly against horses that are 5 or more par points above him (a bracket).

There are two elements to the bracket levels. Track Class and Class level. An Nw1 race at Finger Lakes is not the same as one at Saratoga obviously. The FLakes Nw1 runner will be toiling near the bottom rung of that pyramid - the SAR Nw1 is moving toward the top. Could an Alw shipper ever move from FL to SAR and win? Extremely rare - would be like a Volkswagen defeating a Ferrari. What about a claimer from Finger? The bracket advantage (par) is not nearly so great between a 20k claimer at FL than at SAR and the horse might have a shot if very sharp and fast.

Some practical uses =
Almost all eventual graded stakes winners begin their careers in an Msw at a Class-A track. Almost all of these Msw-A entrants will eventually win a race of some quality.
Look for the losers of Msw at SAR or DMR to slip down one bracket (either to a high priced MCL or a B-track Msw) and succeed.

99% of horses that establish their class level by age 4 will remain at or below the bracket (5pt par range) on that pyramid for the rest of their racing careers. Only a handful succeed in moving up another level. This is the glass ceiling in the game of thoroughbred racing - class barriers are real and it is very difficult to progress beyond the bracket established early in the career. Horses like Seabiscuit and John Henry are legends because they were able to transcend their humble beginnings and move from the lowest brackets on that pyramid to the highest. Their celebrity status is indicative of how extraordinarly rare that kind of class movement is in day to day racing.

Trainers that enter a first time starter into a maiden claiming race below $30,000 are basically telling us that the horse will never amount to anything. And they are rarely wrong in this assessment. Only a handful of MCL winners - even those at Class-A tracks -- will ever move on to win against quality competition or unrestricted stakes and purses above $50,000. The Maiden Claiming entrant has already been doomed to career in the 'factory' (claimers) before he even gets into the gate for the first time.

[tomcat]

Some people think they can go out claim a horse, race him, and get rich.

There is an old horseman's saying (when claiming a horse):

If you go to bed with a claimer, you will wake up with a claimer.