Huguenot
19th February 2004, 03:53.55 PM
For the remainder of the contest, I will post my picks using energy as the main
component. Speed and pace figs and analyis and other handicapping
fundamentals will of course come into play (and odds of course) but I will put to the test
my ideas about making %E work as a critical variable. These are ideas
that I have not seen anywhere else. This is a process. Eventually I want to compute
"energy pars" for each distance and class to see if a race comes up early
or sustained, but that is such a herculean task
without a database.
My theory on why energy does not work for most people is that its
extraordinarily paceline sensitive. You can't use races where the horse
made no moves because it doesn't give you an honest indication of how the
horse runs when he does well.
You cant use races where the pace was "slow." You should do pacelines of
similar distance and surface because 6f races are run strategically differently than
8.5f races just as turf races are run different than dirt races.
I also think most energy results are pace-bias and track-specific. That is, horses must
fit into %E parameters for the track (depending on class) but also for that particular pace
scenario. Races with little early pressure can easily go in say 51%E as early horses can race home in 24 and change, while those with heavy pressure will end up much higher -- 52-53% -- as the pace falls apart
and the final quarter comes in at 26.
huguenot
Example, GP's 7th race today to me projected 'fairly high energy,' therefore I looked for a
competitive low energy horse Came down to the 2 and 8 and the 8 had much
better odds athough horses with a "R" rating don't do well at GP unless the race
REALLY figures to fall apart. The 2, the better horse won at 2-1.
component. Speed and pace figs and analyis and other handicapping
fundamentals will of course come into play (and odds of course) but I will put to the test
my ideas about making %E work as a critical variable. These are ideas
that I have not seen anywhere else. This is a process. Eventually I want to compute
"energy pars" for each distance and class to see if a race comes up early
or sustained, but that is such a herculean task
without a database.
My theory on why energy does not work for most people is that its
extraordinarily paceline sensitive. You can't use races where the horse
made no moves because it doesn't give you an honest indication of how the
horse runs when he does well.
You cant use races where the pace was "slow." You should do pacelines of
similar distance and surface because 6f races are run strategically differently than
8.5f races just as turf races are run different than dirt races.
I also think most energy results are pace-bias and track-specific. That is, horses must
fit into %E parameters for the track (depending on class) but also for that particular pace
scenario. Races with little early pressure can easily go in say 51%E as early horses can race home in 24 and change, while those with heavy pressure will end up much higher -- 52-53% -- as the pace falls apart
and the final quarter comes in at 26.
huguenot
Example, GP's 7th race today to me projected 'fairly high energy,' therefore I looked for a
competitive low energy horse Came down to the 2 and 8 and the 8 had much
better odds athough horses with a "R" rating don't do well at GP unless the race
REALLY figures to fall apart. The 2, the better horse won at 2-1.