How about we all spend August at the SPA?

[Carl]

Well, I hope to get there for a couple of days this year, cleared it with the wife already, see how things go. Maybe can make it for a Wed-Thurs.

But, in the meantime, why don't we all play Saratoga for August?

1) We haven't done A TRACK for a month yet, might be fun. We can even "bet horses back". Whatta treat!
2) Let's have up to $100 to bet each day, that way Glen can play pick fours, nobody taps out.
3) Gives us two days off a week.
4) Do our own ROI as usual.
5) Unless we have a WHALE OF A FAN, nothing we pick is going to move the mutuels one thin dime. Their pools are huge. So we may "pick away" fearlessly.

later,
Carl

[MikeDee]

sounds good to me I'm for it. Have you decided when you are going to SAR?

[Carl]

Don't know yet. I think the wife has Tuesday-Thursday off every other week at her job.

I am about 7 hours away, so one day drive down, one day drive back.

Think we'll stay at Lake George, I like the town (about a half hour from the track) and the beach there is good for the kids.

Are you (or anyone else from HTR) thinking of going down?

later,
Carl

[Glen]

Sounds great to me...That way I won't take out in 10 days...

Seriously, we should really support this track and the lower takeout. This is an opportunity for us horseplayers to show that lowering the take is a good thing...Hopefully, other tracks will follow SAR, PRM, and other tracks who decide to do so...

Long live lower take!

[MtKen]

Great idea Carl & I'd like to second the motion by Glen that all tracks should lower their take & we should certainly try to play those that do.

[hurrikane]

Sounds great...definately a challenge. Now...Lake George sounds GREAT!!!!!!

[Ron]

Carl;

I like your idea about the HTR group following the Saratoga meet this year.


It motivated me to look up my last years model.

I wonder if I have all the meet or most of the data from it?

My model shows 340 records, Average Par of 101 and Average field size of 8.4.
Does anyone have close to those figures in the data modeler?

I did an F12 on my modeler (did not filter down) and noticed that regardless of the PL mode selected, if one played every * selection in every race for the meet, one would have around a 20% hit rate and a approx. a 1.24 ROI

Could that be accurate?

Anyone have any other tips or suggestions on what does or does not work at the Spa?

Ron

[chuck]

Ron,

I was running the model for SAR when I read your message. I show 275 races 19% wins on * and a 1.36 roi!!!!!!!!
I could be missing some races though.

[Carl]

Off of my db, from the HTR side (I am missing quite a few SAR files on the IMPACT side).
====================================
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report done in HTR
SAR
Like *F and not like F
Like *E and not like E
Like *P and not like P
Like *S and not like S

Total Bets----------------------393
Total Amount Bet----------------786.00
Wins----------------------------70
Pct.----------------------------17.81%
Amount Won----------------------795.50
Profit/Loss---------------------9.50
Pct Profit Loss-----------------1.21%
Avg. Payout---------------------11.36
=====================================

Not quite so spectacular, but still good IMO. Certainly better than a wing and a prayer as "a place to start".

later,
Carl

[hurrikane]

you have a jump on me. no files for SAR. anything else look interesting? fr1?

[George]

My two cents worth on SAR.

Such a diverse meet no way to really get a handle on it. BUT

Every year there are at least a few boxcar payoffs on EV1 and EV2 horses in long turf races. Edgar Prado or Jorge Chavez is usually on board.

Every year some trainer brings a FL horse with blazing early speed to enter in a cheap (40k <g>)
claiming race. We all giggle over why this horse is here. Two minutes later we find out why.

Every year we get sudden August thunderstorms which instantly change the track from E,P bias to all R horses winning. Most tracks get faster with sudden storms, this one gets very sloooowwww.

Every year at the end of meet always wish I had bet every HTR trainer ranking 1 when his horse was greater than 5-1.

BOL to everybody.

[Glen]

Yeah, bet the TRN angle is excellent. I recall last year that either at SAR or DMR...All winners in 1st two days of the meet were eiter TRN 1 or 2. But that was last year...

[MtKen]

George:

Anything interesting out of your jock db for Sar/Dmr? Whatever happened to the place spot play that won 27 days straight? Did it bounce back after that 1 bad day?

Are you still tracking jocks by running style?

Finally figured out how to macros in Excell, now I need to burn up some more of my fishing time with a new db project!

Ken

[George]

Ken.....I would hold off on the new db projects until winter. Give you something to do other than tie flys. :)

Don't have any insights on jockeys at SAR. Used to be one could just bet Angel Cordero, Jr whenever he was on anything over 5-1. Edgar Prado is kind of filling his shoes but not as steady.

Still updating the jockey/runstyle db about every two weeks. Don't believe it is that helpful in picking winners, but think it has helped me on exotics. Sometimes points out a horse/rider combo that I would have tossed out in the past and now leave in for place/show in exotics.

My place play worked okay, problem is it generates too many plays per day. Would spend all day calling them in. Need to find a way to automate betting.