Two Horse Betting

[Victor]

(1) Choose the contenders (usually about five).
(2) Remove all other horses by deselecting their pacelines.
(3) Leave everything else ALONE-- that is, leave the PL-5 lines for the contenders in (1) above.
(4) Go to VEL screen and find out what you're going to do.
(5) You should already know what "you're going to do" based upon a review of the database which you have exported (PL-0) into Access.

If I bet F1 ranked 1 and 2:

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
07-Dec-03
Total Bets 839
Total Amount Bet 1678
Wins 161
Pct. 19.19%
Amount Won 1899.70
Profit/Loss 221.70
Pct Profit Loss 13.21%
Avg. Payout 11.80

Cash 161 out of about 420 races, or about 38%.
Profit could be higher with rebates and or smart shopping on the exchange.

[Victor]

F1 rank (1):

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
07-Dec-03
Total Bets 419
Total Amount Bet 838
Wins 84
Pct. 20.05%
Amount Won 968.70
Profit/Loss 130.70
Pct Profit Loss 15.60%
Avg. Payout 11.53

F1 rank (2):

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
07-Dec-03
Total Bets 420
Total Amount Bet 840
Wins 77
Pct. 18.33%
Amount Won 931.00
Profit/Loss 91.00
Pct Profit Loss 10.83%
Avg. Payout 12.09

[Rick]

Very nice.

What method did you use for conterder selection?

I does appear to be working for you.

So, let me see if I understand what you did.

You came up with a contender selection method.
You then exported the races that you had done your selection method on to a db.
You then analysed the races in your db to see what worked.

How did you you come up with your contender selection method?

Thanks

[Victor]

How did you you come up with your contender selection method?

That is the interesting part. I believe in something that is both fast and unconventional. I am deliberately trying not to overanalyze.

What I do (for the most part) is 'run the race' ahead of time using DOS Impact. I look for horses that appear to be strong in one way or another. If I run into a question that cannot be answered, I then look in Htr2 for anything and everything that might help to decide who is in and who is out. Actually, when I reach five who are in, the rest are out. :)

[MikeDee]

Victor It probably makes good sense to you, and I do thank you for your willingness to share, but it's clear as mud to me.

1. Picking contenders

You use the old dos impact to pick contenders? Why? Why not just use the impact screen in htr2 it’s the same thing?

Are you just taking the top 5 ESP? The top ESP atk res? What are you basing your top 5 picks on?

2. And 3 Deselecting the pace lines OK

4. Go to vel screen
You lost me here. Decide what you are going to do? Based on what? Are you taking the top 2 vel horses of your 5 contenders?

5. PL 0 export
If I was lost before I'm hopeless now. Up to this point you never mentioned taking Pl 0 race files and exporting them to access. Where does this fit in the 5-step process? How does it apply?

I know you posted to some other threads how you use Pl 0, but I must confess I never understood that either.

Looks like you have something here and I would really like to understand it, so any additional information you can provide would be appreciated.

[Victor]

You use the old dos impact to pick contenders? Why? Why not just use the impact screen in htr2 it’s the same thing?

I do not think it is the same. DOS Impact is much clearer to me graphically, and it is NOT paceline 5. Whatever it is, I find it to be very useful for 'running the race' in my mind-- before the fact.

5. PL 0 export

If I was lost before I'm hopeless now. Up to this point you never mentioned taking Pl 0 race files and exporting them to access. Where does this fit in the 5-step process? How does it apply?

I'm testing my handicapping (contender selection). I export the races which only contain my contenders and then test them. My theory is that PL-5 velocity factors will show a very positive return if I just do my part to creatively eliminate the probable losers and confirm the possible winners.

4. Go to vel screen
You lost me here. Decide what you are going to do? Based on what? Are you taking the top 2 vel horses of your 5 contenders?

Mike, my review of the DB of exported PL-0 races will tell me where my strengths are, and what to play on the velocity screen. For example, F1 ranked one or two, rather than let's say LP ranked one or two.

The main advantage comes from creating a database which is reflective of my analysis of who belongs and who doesn't. It is not necessary to use DOS Impact, that's just what I like to do.
In fact, the "KM" screen might be a good alternative. Whatever screen allows you to put winning longshots into the mix. Put them in, run them through PL-5 and bet the factors that have shown a profit in your own personal reflective database.