PL-4 Question

[Huguenot]

I was under the impression PL-4 gave the line for the best AP for the past 6 months for same surface and within 1 furlong of today's race.
But I've noticed it won't go beyond the last 5 pacelines. This is not a bad thing, but I was wondering if I had the wrong idea of what the PL did. (In my handicapping, I won't go beyond last 3 at the distance structure/surface/fast anyway without a great reason.)


huguenot

[km]

Correct Hugo

PL-4 restricts to the last 5 lines maximum.

I like PL-4 with turf sprints especially, and most turf routes, but not maiden grass.

Dirt sprints are ok with it. But dirt routes are a problem because you need to see the velocity of those moving from sprints, they usually are part of the picture.

PL-5 is very good with dirt routes. PL-5 will sometimes choose either a sprint or a grass route when today's race is dirt route, and that is ok, as the grass ---> dirt / sprint ---> route angles are always interesting.

PL-1 is very bad for turf races and should not be used. Grass runners are constantly in trouble and it is entirely unfair to restrict their performance evaluation to the last line. This is why PL-4 is better, it sticks to a recent turf route, but gives you their top effort so you can compare on the assumption that the trip will be clean. No large field of grass runners get a clean journey, some will be blocked and held up, others 5-wide, etc. But the trouble is random and can happen to any horse. This is why turf races, especially turf claimers and nwX are longshot friendly, but certain misery for chalk and system players.

[Huguenot]

I've been printing out PLs 1, 4, and 5 to get 3 looks at the race and considering any horse
that fits in either scenario. Once in a while this overlooks a relevant paceline tho but overall
it's workable.
(Example: PL 1 and 5 will choose the last line, and PL 4 might go back 4 months, but occasionally the next-to-last line is interesting for some reason: The horse flashed unusual
early or late speed perhaps. I have also found lots of redundencies with these 3 lines so
I'm starting to look at the Cramer line, 4, and 5 and check the last PL on the TLC IMPACT screen)

Doing all the math and rankings is the time-consuming headache -- hence our project.

huguenot