The Search for the ULTIMATE bad bet horse.

[Carl]

I think Glen is right, picking 100 losers in a row would be almost impossible.

I decided to run a few queries in my 390,000 line db, seeing if I could find me a no-chancer.

Short answer, "no chance of finding a horse with 'no chance'". Every dog seems to have his day.
Here are two kicks at finding patterns for "losing horses".

1) rPROB 9. This would be the horse/horses HTR would say had the least chance (probability) of winning.

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
14-Jul-01
Total Bets--------------------39585
Total Amount Bet--------------79170.00
Wins--------------------------958
Pct.--------------------------2.42%
Amount Won--------------------50142.20
Profit/Loss-------------------(-29027.80)
Pct Profit Loss---------------(-36.67%)
Avg. Payout-------------------52.34

Notice they still win 2.5% of them time. Not good. Over 100 races, you would have 2 or 3 winners most times.

2) rPROB 9, rPSCAN 9, rK 9, Ev >=5.

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
rPROB9, rK9, rPSCAN9, Fr1>=5
Total Bets----------------------15799
Total Amount Bet----------------31598.00
Wins----------------------------275
Pct.----------------------------1.74%
Amount Won----------------------17852.10
Profit/Loss---------------------(-13745.90)
Pct Profit Loss-----------------(-43.50%)
Avg. Payout---------------------64.92

Better, but still no cigar.

Anybody got a better losing pattern? One we can count on? (Now no backfitting......hehe.)

later,
Carl