EVD and esd

[hurrikane]

I quit playing this track a little bit ago but last night I was checking it out. The esd +10s are winning at a 30% clip but not producing a profit. Wasn't sure why. Well, in every race where there was an esd+10 they were at MLO over 8-1 and every one of them came off as even money chalk.

Begs the question...is the MLO person there an idiot or is every one here beating the odds to death at this place?

[Carl]

Hurrikane,

Don't think ESD +10 is the keys to the kingdom. My experience is that they are getting bet all over.

The same thing you notice happens at CT on a regular basis too, did last year also with "ev1's".

Does the MLO guy stink in these places? I would say so. Think he reads a DRF, and can't see the things that show up in comparative pace programs.

The part that interests me, is the 8-1 MLO in itself an inducement for the horse to get bet down? I would suspect we are not the only players that look for "value" early in terms of MLO. The Jim Bayle "longshot service" for example bases their "releases" on MLO as far as I know. And what else could a player who wants to bet early base his picks on if he wants a price?

later,
Carl

[hurrikane]

I agree Carl, I have seem many tracks still cranking 27-30% winners now showing a neg ROI simply because they are being bet down. I haven't really taken the time to see if there is anouther reason or if services are just selling the picks and they are getting beat down.

Funny thing is there are still tracks churning a nice profit off of this simple play. Curious why one track gets killed and anouther doesn't. Maybe the answer is in the size of the pools. Also seems many of the tracks are slot tracks. Maybe the influx of shippers is confusing the public.

[George]

Hurrikane/Carl......interesting observations. My opinion is that a contributing factor is time of year. About this time every year it gets tough to get a price. Many tracks have been running long enough for easy comparison's between horse's by every kind of handicapping technique. Even the casual players have seen them enough to know who runs early and who is strong late.

Think you really have to concentrate on tracks that are just opening and getting lots of fresh talent from many different tracks.

My fav summer hunting grounds will start shortly. LAD will have some bombs as soon as LS closes. ELP for some reason draws from several tracks, and SAR is the "graveyard of favorites".