CD Wednesday - Any Ideas Races 6&7

[Sheets Guy]

Anyone have any thoughts on CD races 6&7 for tomorrow. I thought both were pretty wide open and had enough speed to be won from just off the pace. Dancin Rahy might be an interesting toss in the 7th. An all or nothing type in a race where he doesn't figure to see the lead.

I could use all the help I can get.

Thanks,

Sheets Guy

[Glen]

You picked a couple of wild ones...A Vi of 10 and 23...Don't think I've ever seen a 10 Vi. If it is dry, only 4% of 24 races were won wire to wire...Hope you hit a few big ones.

[km]

Mike Dee is helping me beta-test the new workout rating which will be made available first to those attending the seminar. Here are the top-2 picks baseed on the rating for Churchill and HOL p6 carryovers today (Wed), 'Dee can verify that I'm not red boarding these. This is a 'static' rating and not dependent on user interaction (ie PL selection). The rating was designed to recognize that there is lots of hanky panky, phony clockings and deception going on with workouts. So it computes based on 'pattern recognition' not conventional time and distance elements.

CD
5 - #1, #2
6 - #2, #3
7 - #1A, #10
8 - #4, #7
9 - #4, #1
10 - #9, #10

HOL
3 - #5, #7
4 - #9, #2
5 - #3, #1
6 - #8, #2
7 - #2, #3
8 - #1, #6

[km]

One winning ticket at Churchill p6 pays over $1 million dollars.

I hope it was you 'sheets guy' !!

[qhrick]

Gee, if all you can muster are the following winners:
14.80
32.00
2nd @ 17.1
13.60
14.00
9.20

what good are the workout ratings!!!!!!

Impressive debut!!

Congratulations!

Good work

-rick

[Sheets Guy]

KM:

You have no idea how well you did at CD. The winner of the fifth was a horse named Favorite Magic. FM only showed two works in the PPs the last a slow breeze at CD. Curious thing is, FM NEVER worked at CD (despite what equibase said). He did however, we were told, have five pretty good works at KEE over the last 6 weeks that somehow managed to not make it into the papers. I used that horse as a key in the PK6, but it didn't help much as we only had three winners, and I only had that horse small when my PK3s blew out.

BTW, we were so f@#$%^&!n close without hitting. Had runnersup in both 6th and 7th at square prices that had the lead 100 yds from the wire, and the winner of the 6th was a horse we tossed at the last minute because I thought he'd be too far back for the track profile (even though he was second in S/P). Went back and forth for 15 minutes on the winner of the 8th (never would have had the runner-up) before deciding no to whittle down the ticket, especially since speed on the grass at CD has been so good with the rail out.

It was fun chasing the carryover but it sure can be hazardous to your bankroll.

Sheetsguy

[km]

Well thank you very much for the applause on the workout selections today qhrick! These picks were the workout rating top-2 only, nothing else. I'm not sure it makes much sense to bet them verbatim, and maybe today was luckier than most. We have found the workout rating works very well as companion to many other factors, especially early speed. And it seems to enhance other factors. I will be adding the rating to the HTR-consensus for sure, and possibly include it in the (K) rating down the road. I"m still testing and tweaking it and will continue to keep you updated.

As Sheet Guy suggests, workout information is full of holes and false hopes. Even with all the scrutiny on the Belmont Stakes, look at the controversy surrounding that last 5f workout by Funny Cide despite dozens of witnesses. Many of the clockers there disagreed with the time of that work saying it was much faster than listed.

And then there is the complete lack of accountability at some tracks, trainer deception, workouts conducted off-site, mistaken and missing clockings, etc, etc. Even veteran clockers sitting side-by-side watching the same horse work, will often disagree on the time or effort involved. If you can find two "expert" clocker reports for the same track and date, notice how different their opinions are.

So how can I construct a predictable workout rating knowing that there is plethora of garbage surrounding the information in the first place. Garbage in - garbage out - right? Wrong, not if the garbage has predictable patterns of success. In other words, if horses are winning at LRL with a single 3f breeze in the last 90 days, then what the hell, if that is the pattern that works, we'll bet on it. While some trainers are deceptive and cunning fellows, they are not nearly as smart as they think, and like most thieves, they do the same thing over and over as long as it works and they don't get caught.

FYI only =
Workout picks for CD and HOL appear in the Selections Forum for Thursday.