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View Full Version : Mis- information (from brisnt the edge)


jungleg
13th June 2003, 11:09.17 AM
Left in the dark without accurate and timely information

Winning money at the races is hard enough nowadays but when the player does not receive accurate information, then you are really up against it. Case in point is the 4TH race at Hollywood Park on June 4. The race was a $10,000 claiming event for California-breds, four and up. As a public handicapper and others who do their handicapping the day before the races, one is at the mercy of either the Daily Racing Form or companies such as BRIS for past performance information. This data comes from Equibase, which does all the chart calling.

When handicapping the 4TH race the day before, Stephen Trevino, who was winless on the year, was listed as the trainer of Masakado Kid (Masakado). Trevino hadn't even started a horse in 2003. The only two wins of Masakado Kid's career occurred in 1991 when trained by Jeff Mullins. Since being claimed from Mullins in November of '91, the gelding's best finish was a third from five starts for Trevino.

Masakado Kid was now returning from more than a one-year layoff for Trevino, according to past performance data. When handicapping this race where their was no standout, I was looking for something different, a horse that could be a bit of a price in a wide-open event. When I got to Masakado Kid, I looked him over carefully and decided he was a horse I would use because he was a stranger against horses who had been running. I could select him no higher than fourth, however, because I had very little confidence in Trevino getting him ready to win off a layoff. But I figured just being a fresh face might be good enough for Masakado Kid to land a share.

It wasn't until the next day, a few hours after the race was over, that I found out that we were victimized by inaccurate information. In actuality, a low percentage trainer was not training Masakado Kid but instead the red-hot Mullins, who had the horse for his only two wins. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to come to the conclusion that Masakado Kid would have been an automatic bet with correct information. The horse was being reunited with one of the hottest trainers in the country in a spot where there the other contenders had serious drawbacks.

I was livid when I saw this because it cost me a good priced top winner and cost many others the same. I phoned the Hollywood Park racing office, introduced myself and told them I needed a good explanation to what went wrong. The racing office admitted they made a mistake by not getting the correct information out, but they had discovered the error too late for the general public to know. They did correct it for the official track program that afternoon. So unless you were at Hollywood Park on Wednesday or could download an official program somewhere else, you never knew that the trainer of Masakado Kid was indeed Mullins.

Not only that, there was no announcement made of the trainer change when you viewed the races at a simulcast outlet or no mention of it on a crawl during the Hollywood Park telecast.

Two days later I was watching the races from Monmouth Park and in the 3RD race the winner was a three-year-old named Pelican Pete (Castle Guard), who upset the field by more than six lengths and paid $23. In the Racing Form and other past performances you could purchase, they listed Pelican Pete as a colt. He was returning from a layoff after running eight times. The closest finish he ever had was two fourth-place finishes, beaten 14 lengths both times. In those eight outings he was beaten a total 123 lengths, which in plain math means that Pelican Pete was beaten an average of more than 15 lengths per start.

There was no way any handicapper could pick this horse to wake up and win for fun for a low percentage trainer, an even worse rider and a layoff. That is unless you knew he was a FIRST TIME GELDING, which was not listed in any past performances. Most of the times the past performances will indicate a C next to the horses color which stands for colt. If they return as a gelding, rarely is that designation changed and if it is it could be quite a few races down the line, clearly not in a timely manner.

I have owned a horse that was always listed as colt after many starts but in actuality was gelded many races before. First time geldings are important information to know because this angle has accounted for many positive form reversals.

The betting public is entitled to timely and accurate information but that doesn't seem to be much of a concern for racing officials. Why can't Thoroughbred racing be more professional like other sports? You can find out when a college basketball player has the flu and detailed injury reports from pro teams, but you can't find out when there is a trainer change sometimes. This makes no sense to me.

We should be able to receive proper shoe information for horses before the races even start. These mistakes and withholding important information to the wagering public happens all the time on a daily basis. We should even be told when a horse returns to the races if he or she had any type of surgery or illness. Many horses have throat operations to alleviate a breathing problem, but the public isn't informed. With the exception of the rare occasion when the trainer or somebody connected with the horse just volunteers the information, the public is never informed. Does anybody care?

How many times do you see a running line where the horse is pulled up, never finishing the race, or even vanned off only to return a few weeks later to win at a big price. When you handicap these races you never really know why this incident occurred. We're just in the dark. I guess the NTRA and racing jurisdictions strongly disagree, but we are entitled to this information.

If anybody is trying to help this game, they should look no further than beginning with accurate and timely information for all to see. All the examples listed above are very relevant to our handicapping.

Huguenot
13th June 2003, 11:58.02 AM
NTRA has formed a Player's Panel to look into these issues. Go to www.ntra.com and
you can find out how to email them.

huguenot.

Ron Tiller
14th June 2003, 08:31.16 AM
Re: "So unless you were at Hollywood Park on Wednesday or could download an official program somewhere else, you never knew that the trainer of Masakado Kid was indeed Mullins."

False. The HTR data file, as well as every other file and report produced and distributed by HDW, had the trainer as Mullins.

This is a perfect example of why HDW does NOT post early files, 2, 3, 4 or even 5 days in advance. Equibase has early files available for Value Added Resellers, like TSN, DRF, HDW ITS, etc. These files are not the official no sh*t final set of data that will go into the track program, although if there are no changes, corrections or additions, they could be identical to the final data file. Those files are normally available the day before the race, and in some cases, a little earlier. They are precisely that: early files.

When the last of the QA checks, changes and additions from the track (as well as the Morning Line and a few other late produced data elements) are verified and signed off on by somebody in the Equibase simulcast department, they send VARs and the tracks the 'official' file, the file that will be converted to the track program. Once or twice a week we will get a call from somebody in the Equibase simulcast department telling us there was a change or addition and that they are sending a new file to reflect those changes. It is normally something like adding a trifecta to race 7 and normally they call before we've even processed the data and posted any files.

In addition to this scenario, Equibase makes available to VARs 2 different database synchronization feeds, the newer one containing all the tables Equibase uses to construct and monitor the different race events for all tracks in North America. Thus, by replicating this new Equibase database, one can monitor on a near real time basis where Equibase is in the QA process for a particular track and race. If the VARS choose to use this scenario, they dodn't need an additional file from Equibase; they simply monitor the various status fields in the Equibase tables and can tell when the offical poop is ready to send. They can also create whatever files and reports they produce at any time they want, before the offical no sh*t status flag is set.

So if handicappers want data before the official poop is ready, caveat emptor. VARS who elect to disseminate preliminary data, before the final quality control checks, are always risking putting up data that could very well change by the time the final data is ready for dissemination. It is thios final data that the tracks use to make track programs and that HDW uses to make files and reports.

That said, I find this author's attack on Hollywood Park completely out of line and utterly misguided. Hollywood Park IS responsible for noting any changes, additions or corrections to the track program, because that is the offical data. They are NOT responsible in any way, shape or form for announcing that they corrected a trainer name as part of the QA process before the offical data was disseminated. It was the DRF and BRIS and others who elected to disseminate data that they knew was not official yet, so let THEM stand up and honestly tell people either a: this data is not official and will probably have some errors in it that will be corrected as part of the normal QA process and tough luck - that is the price you pay for getting data 2 or 3 or 4 days in advance, or b: list any modifications or changes to the data from the time the files and reports were originally made to the time of the offical data dissemination (or the appropriate QA flags have been set in the replicated database).

This second option would be a nightmare to administer and would result in a lot of angry handicappers having to monitor reports and data files for corrections and changes from early to final files. Moreover, Hollywood Park does not control when VARS elect to make files: ITS may make them at 9:00am on tuesday, DRF may make their early file at 1:00pm on tuesday, all the hile the track/Equibase QA process is in progress.

Bottom line: this is an issue of handicappers wanting early data and VARs, not tracks, catering to this demand by selling preliminary information that hasn't passed final track/Equibase QA. I am not criticizing this arrangement. Just be aware of what you are getting and don't blame Hollywood Park for printing the correct trainer in the program when the BRIS file downloaded 3 days ago had the wrong one. HDW elected at the start to sidestep this whole can of worms by only posting the final data.

Regarding actual errors by the tracks and Equibase, that is another issue. We too have wanted accurate gelding info but I don't know enough about the process of disseminating this info to comment. If the author had his horse gelded and didn't tell anybody, then I would guess it's his fault. If he reported it to the appropriate people (who would they be? the jockey club? track secretaries? I don't know) there is clearly a big problem.

Regarding the right to know everything that might impact a horse's performance, that is another post. The author is probably right, though, that racing is way behind other sports when it comes to data dissemination.

Ron Tiller
HDW

Donnie
14th June 2003, 08:51.37 AM
Ron-
Thanks for that insight. I was not aware there were "multiple" processes out there. Always wondered how others could produce the data a day quicker than others...but myself, personally, I would rather have accurate info rather than early info. Thanks for the great job you guys do there at HDW! It is appreciated!

Donnie
14th June 2003, 08:57.36 AM
Ron---
one other question....I bought a new laptop (Compaq Presario 3045US) that was able to reach the sign-in page for the past week, now suddenly it blows past the sign in screen for HDW and goes directly to a page telling me to make sure I entered the username and password correctly. Off to the side it says DENIED_EMPTY. Any thoughts?? I ahve emptied the cache and even turned off Internet Security and Anti-virus. I emptied my cookies and all off-line content, so I am kinda at an impass! Thanks for any help!

Ron Tiller
14th June 2003, 05:08.55 PM
Donnie,

This is a new one for me. Try turning off the auto complete feature on your browser. It sounds like its zipping right through several password attempts automatically and then sending you to the you-entered-the-wrong-password-too-many-times screen. I don't have any other ideas other than the standard response I give when all else fails: 'Have your wife take a look at it.'

Ron

Donnie
14th June 2003, 11:28.10 PM
My classic response is, "Rub a little butter on it!"

I never have the autocomplete turned on so I guess I will have to look elsewhere!

Thanks!

Donnie
15th June 2003, 05:24.22 AM
Ron-
The last entry on the Security tab under Tools to Internet Options allows you to log on Annonymously...this was checked...I changed to "Prompt for Password" and all is fine.....just in case you see this again. Don't know how this got turned on, but it did!