LV1-RES1 type plays.

[Carl]

Was reading Mt Ken's post about heart attack down the lane hoping the Ev1 holds on, was wondering if any of you are having any luck going the other way, and finding any patterns that work with closers (other than surface or track specific).

I spent three hours once on db'ing Lv1's, didn't come close to a positive ROI with any other factors I could find. Anyone having better luck at this end?

later,
Carl

[Glen]

Carl, Try maidens Lv1 going sprint to route...Might come up positive w/ couple other filters...

[hurrikane]

No luck Carl. I've built things based on pressure(randy giles), attack and res, rs and res, res and lv..and lv with all of the others..and many many more. I can't find a drop dead spot play. esd >5 and nrsd>5 got close.

nrsd is a query I built to give me the same number on the back end that esd did on the front.

even on turf, which is why I started, nothing to retire on.

Let me know if anything happens. George did something based on high avg once in the old impact but I belive it was track specific to HAW

[Carl]

Thanks guys.

I am going to spend some time on it. IF "everyone" is looking at early speed, contrarian wise there should be something there somewhere .

I personally think the problem lies in what Gordon Pine calls the "75% luck factor." The clearly best ep usually can get the lead or close. The clearly best closer has all kinds of obstacles (i.e. other horses) to navigate as well, it is very easy to get blocked once or twice till you are free. And bad jockeys can do some god-awful things to closer types. And closers are somewhat pace dependent as well.

later,
Carl

[MtKen]

Carl:

I've been wondering if you could 'block' the races (all the horses) with playable ESDs/FR1s from a db & checking the remainder of races to see what works when there is no probable frontrunner. My only solution has been to add a column & mark the logical frontrunners & then mark all the horses in these races. The problem is the tedium factor involved----I haven't even tried. If anyone could figure out an automatic way to mark all runners in a race when 1 runner has the desired factors (strong K1, 10+ ESD, etc) then you could test all those other races w/o these contenders seperately. Anyone done this or thought about it?

[Carl]

I think I know HOW to do it Mt Ken. Don't think it would take much time if you wanted to give it a go.
1) Make a copy of the table you want to test. It will get somewhat mangled, so you probably want to throw it out when you are done.
2) Do the queries you want to test for ev1's, rESD 1, etc.
3) Make a query for these races ONLY showing the track, race number and date.
4) Query for these races. Delete them.

This leaves you with a db with the races you want only in it.

later,
Carl

[MtKen]

Carl:

Thanks---the problem is, I think, having to individually query each race. Seems like it would take forever. I'm using Excel, I could probably color code the EV1s & then scroll through & color the entire races......still might take awhile. I might try your way & mine today to see what happens.

If you could mark 1 horse in race & then have it somehow 'infect' or mark the others too w/o going through these other steps you would have something pretty cool for queries.

[Carl]

Ken,

Don't have a clue in Excel. I can bearly use it. But in access I do the following.

1) You can also "mark horses and/or races by make tables.

2) You just make a simple table with say one field "Ken" in it, then query, save that query as a table, then make table from a merge of the two db's.

3) This will give you a new table with the fields marked.

4) You can add this new table back in by doing a delete of the original query, which will eliminate these lines (which you now have in the new table).

5) A append table run, merging the two, everything is back to the way it was, except what you wanted marked is now marked.

Anything under 200 lines I mark by hand, anything over I do variations of the above. It writes harder than it is. (That's why Mike is so cool at explaining things. He makes it sound easier than it is, giving me confidence to forge ahead. Hehe. If I had to follow my own explanations I'd never get anything done, wouldn't know where to start.)

later,
Carl

[hurrikane]

I did some work with Randy Giles pressure. Built queries to create the pressure for each race and then did some work with low pressure and high pressure and essetially no pressure. There was a significant effect on the types of rs horses that won...more P S and R horses with a higher avg mutual but I never could get a workable spot play out of the data.

I can dig it up and maybe put up some stats.

[Carl]

Originally posted by Glen
Carl, Try maidens Lv1 going sprint to route...Might come up positive w/ couple other filters...

Thanks Glen,

Was going to take a look at it, but don't know how to query it.

How can I find "Sprint to Route" in the downloads?

Thanks,
Carl

[Glen]

From MSA txt.

22. Special Alerts nSPCA 1= FTS (first time starter today)
2= Broke maiden in last
3= Sprint to Route change
4= Route to Sprint
5= First Start (ever) on Grass
0= nothing applicable

Let me know what you come up with. It came up slightly positive for me last year. Haven't looked into it lately. In addition, I think I might of added a couple of other filters...

[Glen]

Actually Carl, it was Velocity rank 1 with some other late factor like Lv1-3 or something...

[Glen]

Rating? Where did that come from and how do you do it?

[Carl]

Glen,

Been playing with Spec "3" a little, with maidens/change to route/rVEL1/good close.

Win percentage is great (20-25), but average pay is bad ($6-$7.50). Been trying to junk it up a little to help ROI, so far no luck.

Will e-mail you if I get anything good off of the three factors you mentioned.

later,
Carl

[Glen]

Yeah Carl, about the best roi I can muster up is about 1.05ish...Not really anything worth while for the number of plays...

[Ron]

Carl;

Here's a twist on the LV1 thread.

Have you or any of the other access crew ever done a query on races that have no F, E, or P's in it and are made up of only S and R running styles?

The focus would be on the EV1 or possibly the EV2 "S" horses.

Do they become the speed of the paceless race and end up winning in the absence of the F's, E's and P's ?
Especially if they have the highest EE% of all the entrents?

And,....do the LV1 and LV2 horses usually loose these races?



Ron

[George]

Ron,
Have not ran queries on these but have been playing them when I see them. An *S EV1 appears to me to be one of the best win wagers in HTR. Problem is you don't see one very often.

They usually run just like an *F in relation to the rest of the field. Seem to have less tendancy to "shorten up" at the end.

Have not checked relationship to %EE or LV1.
Will try to do some queries tonight and post stats.