Exotic Odds

[fred4now]

Happy 4th of July to everyone.

Does anyone know how to figure odds on exacta and trifecta? Like if A=30% chance and B=20% chance what are the odds that of hitting an exacta? Same for tri?

[MtKen]

F4N:

There was a table in a book I had by Quirin or somebody.....it would give you the fair payout depending on both horses' odds. I can't find it on my bookshelf, though....maybe a Dick Mitchell book. Maybe someone else has it or some kind of other calculator or chart. If I find it I'll let you know. This was for exactas only, though.

Ken

[ERNIE]

Barry Meadows Book "Money Secrets at the Racetrack" has what he calls "overlay prices" for DD'S-EX-QUI'S In chart form (I.E. A 2/1 TO A 3/1 SHOULD PAY $23 for a two dollar exacta and a 5/1 to a 7/1 should pay $119) he can be found at "TR PUBLISHING 527 So. SONYA St ANAHIEM,CA 92808 714-635-8725
Several people have his book and would loan it to you I bet ya,should your e-mail them your snail address.

[fred4now]

Thanks guys, actually I have that book. The formula for tri isn't very clear. If I know the % for A,B,C I should be able to figure the % that it would hit the tri. Not interested in 50% overlay.

[fred4now]

In case anybody else wants to know, formula for exacta is:

A%*(B%/(1-A%))

This is what I,m looking for the tri

[fred4now]

I got tired of figuring out the odds for exacta looking at the charts in Barry Meadow's book so I made an excel worksheet that you can put in win and place percent on top and side and it calculates 25% overlay for each combination. Will try to attach a copy. If anybody would like a copy let me know and if you use Excel 97 or 2000.

[fred4now]

Hey that attachment thing worked pretty good. I guess anybody can just save it off the board huh? Notice that there are 2 sheets, Exacta Overlay and Exacta Win %.

[hurrikane]

Cool Fred, thanks. Did you get a report from me in your mail about a week ago?

[fred4now]

No Hurrikane, thought you forgot about me.

[hurrikane]

Will resend Fred

[BMeadow]

Fred4Now wrote:

"Does anyone know how to figure odds on exacta and trifecta? Like if A=30% chance and B=20% chance what are the odds that of hitting an exacta? Same for tri?"

Assuming the total-book odds of the field equal 122% (18% takeout), A-B exacta is:
.30/1.22 x .20 /.92
because the chance of B running second is the same as his winning vs. the rest of the field once A's odds have been subtracted

Similarly, for trifectas with A=30%, B=20%, C=15%, calculation is:
.30/1.22 x .20/.92 x .15/72

These numbers assume that the horses can equally finish in all positions based on their win prices, which might be a tenuous assumption.

Further details are found in Meadow's Racing Monthly articles on exactas (Aug. 1998) and trifectas (Feb. 2000). Go to www.trpublishing.com for further info. Thank you.

[tomcat]

I'm rather curious BM, are you a member of the HTR community?

[Glen]

Hello BMeadow,

Welcome to our board. Any good advice or strategies on the pick-4...seems the payoffs are overlayed at HOL and elsewhere. Currently, it is one of my favorite wagers...Feast or famine...

Thanks,
Glen:confused:

[BMeadow]

I don't use the HTR program but I am familiar with Ken's excellent work. I peruse a number of boards occasionally (including this one).

Re the pick 4, my own rules are (a) must perceive I have in advantage in at least two of the legs and (b) no more than two favorites. I monitor the win odds in the first two legs (the second by checking the daily doubles) to try to find either value or play-againsts. Assuming these are met, I'll put more money on combinations that are more likely to win and/or are potential overlays. I don't believe you can long-term money simply by using all your contenders with no regard to whether the payoffs will be worthwhile.

[fred4now]

Thanks for the reply Barry, I figured out how to hook an Excel spreadsheet to live odds on the web and gives me yes or no on exacta at 50% overlay using the formulas in your book 'Money Secrets at the Racetrack'. I never seem to be able to catch the right win overlay though. Seems like every time I think it is an overlay, the odds are higher for a good reason and it loses. I have put some serious effort into this and not much luck. I'm guessing some of you are just plain better handicappers.

[HarryH]

I would be interested in hearing how you connected live odds to Excel spreadsheet
Could you describe how or point me to some references?
HarryH

[hurrikane]

You know Fred, exotics are not my strong point either. I'm breaking even since Jan. I'm not so sure it is handicapping though as much as finding contenders and bet structure. There are many people up here much better with exotics than I am that could answer that.

I have found that in exacta pools the exacta that seem to be the 'underlay' or out of scew with the rest of the field wins an inordinate amount of time.

I haven't found a way to check this yet but it seems I frequently will see 2 horses not the fav paying less than the top 2 favs. Or better is the fav with a longer price horse paying less than the top 2 favs. Like I said I haven't found a way to check it so I don't use it as a play but I will use it to back off a race.
If I don't have this 'underlay' exacta then I back off the race. If I do have it then I may have to restructure my bet to make it profitable. The real question is if this is an actual underlay or does the public have the percentages wrong and it is really an overlay. don't know if you really can check something like that.

Interesting work with the spreadsheet though. You do that with racingchannel or Brisnet?

Hey Harry...welcome aboard!!!

[fred4now]

Excel 2000 has an option called a web query. You can tell it to update every minute. Any page that has data in a table can be brought in. I think I was more interested in seeing if I could do it than actually using it. It is kind of boring just watching the numbers flash and the losing streaks look like they could be very long. It does give the exact same output as Barry's book though.

[HarryH]

Thanks, Fred.... I have been using an older version of Excel; I have some other uses perhaps. I'll look into it
HarryH

[fred4now]

I'm still using access 97 and only reason i have excel 200o is we upgraded at work. Oops, sorry about the W word guys. Other than the web query feature which I think is more fun than useful I think 97 version totally adequate for what we do. Just info for anyone thinking of upgrading to 2000.

BTW welcome Harry H.