Q horse Questions for QhRick

[Glen]

Hey Rick, I'm interested in learing more about Q horses...if you don't mind what are your thoughts on...

1) Handicapping Speed
2) Charles Carrolls wind adjustments in his book

Thanks,
Glen

[qhrick]

Gken -

1) Speed - The essential element. Simple concept here, bet the fastest horse. Determining who that's likely to be represents close to 30 years of my life.
here's the formula!!
HORSES ACTUAL RUNNING TIME - ( trouble + variants for the race and for the horses part of the track he ran on+ any adjustments that may be later warranted )

The trouble, I detemine that based on video review
The rest of it is math and number crunching

Generally, the horse's last race is used as a comparison in calculating these numbers


Of course, the so called fastest horse doesn't allways win. There are many other factors that can impact a given race. Some horses are trouble prone, and often encounter trouble. Luck is probably key in any race. If we have average luck, we can be right resonably often. Doesn't always work that way. Horses get left, horses get fractious, things happen just as with any kind of races. But I will say, on balance, I find most quarter horses very consistent. Luck may not always be on their side, but once you compensate for trouble encountered, the racing surface, etc, the big majority of horses are remarkably consistent.

2) "Charles Carrolls wind adjustments" let me plead ignorance here, if I have read anything he wrote I don't recall the name. But wind can have a major impact on the time of a race. In the most extreme of cases, maybe close to a full second, with a second representing appx 6 lengths
I recall a scholar who wrote in the AQHA magazine years ago re: wind. He tried to equate how X amount of wind in mph could impact a race. He presented some interesting scientific study.
I would tell you simply, a strong tail or head wind will have a huge impact on final time. The way I compute numbers, I'm not really concerned about wind, the computed numbers take that into account. So a 20mph head wind, or 30mph tail wind would be a meanlingless stat to me. If you want those types of numbers, they are often available in the Equibase charts, as most tracks have a wind gauge in place.
The impact of wind is undeniable. Sunland Park is the home of many world record times. And while they run good horses there, in general, the very best horses may not even comptete there. But the winds there reach near blizzard force. Often, on a real windy day, you can barely see the horses. BTW, the AQHA recognizes all of those wind aided efforts
Remington Park - one year they were running trial races for the Heritage Futurity, a major race. 14 races and only the top 5 horse make it, 14 more races the next day for 5 more qualifiers. Anyways, 13 races were over, and it was a normal hot, humid Oklahoma summer day, which meant a small headwind. But just before race 14, the storm comes, near tornado force winds. 4 horse qualify from race 14, not one was worthy of the finals. My estimate of the difference that change in wind caused was appx 4/5 of a second .80, a huge swing


One last thought - chart calls
Notoriously bad stretch calls occur at many tracks, just browse thru some pp's
The chart makers suffer an optical illusion
Inside posts generally get good early calls and appear to fade, outside posts are usually listed further back at the gap than they really are, and appear to close, somtimes appearing to close giant. I see lines like 8-3 ( strch call ) then 2 -1/2 ( final call ) when in fact the horse broke well and ran evenly. Invariably, this horse was drawn way outside. Los Alamitis is a rarity here as they have a "gap camera" instaled. I still don't always belive those calls eithrer

Hope that helps,
rick

[Glen]

Good stuff Rick, thanks. FWIW, Charles Carroll wrote a book called Handicapping Speed (reference to question #1). He listed some wind adjustments in there...

I assume you get your video replays privately. Are there any outlets that sell race plays for Q horses?

[qhrick]

Not sure about your question. Are you talking about video replays or race selections

For race selections, nothing I would endorse

For video replays, usually on a track to track basis. Or maybe you can find a reply show, some are on satelites, etc. Los Al replays run both locally and on TVG in the AM, for example.

I believe Delta is on an internet replay site, www.racereplays.com ??

Some places like to charge a fortune, others are kinder. Helps if you find a sympathetic ear.

We have even camcordered the races direct from Internet in a total pinch. Barely reviewable but beats nothing

-rick