Power News from KM

[km]

A power-packed special edition of the HTR-Monthly arrrives Tuesday. It will be around 20 pages in length; Rick and I need all day Monday just to proof and PDF the thing.

The extra length is due to 3 articles that I have written to supplement older columns in our "articles archive". I have been working on these since the new year and decided to add them all to the newsletter at once. The 3 special articles =

1) Quarter horse handicapping system. Much requested by users over the years.

2) Getting started with HTR2001 - a good review for veterans, an excellent primer for greenhorns. Some stats and charts included.

And the big one =

3) Bullish on Longshots - Redux
This is a fresh look and revision from the article that changed HTR in 1999. Then it was the 'shot heard round the handicapping world - Fr1 for longshots'. Now the world has changed and we better get in step with some fresh information.

I apologize for constantly stating in the Longshot article "more details ... at the seminar" but I just cannot relate the reams of data and research (ongoing) in the newsletters alone. I will do my best to summarize after the seminar though and in future newsletter editions. But I hope you will be there in person in Lexington Aug1 to get yourself the goodiebag without waiting.

BTW: Tomcat tells me we have 20 / 40 seats now paid for and reserved on the bus to Overbrook farm to visit super sire Storm Cat. Get your $20 in to him asap if you want to go on that trip. No limit to regular seminar audience though, you can come at the last minute if you wish.

Other interesting stuff in the newsletter this month:

= Complete details of our seminar schedule via TomCat. Sign up sheet included.

= The RES rating, nice surprise, but a few warnings too. Thanks to Glen for the request.

= Trainers rated > 400. Major influence on the outcome of races and horse racing too.
Another key topic for the seminar.

= HTR2001 Update. Statistically meaningful post-position stats.

TOURNAMENT NEWS
-------------------------
TommyC won $1500 for 2nd Place-Day-Money (for day 2) at the Pick the Ponies at the Hilton in Vegas. But overall he and the other HTR contestants were out of the money.

I spoke on the phone with Bob Ramos (100Aces) and Don Marconi (Gumper) from Hawthorne. They did good, but suffered through nearly all chalk in the HAW-only (races 2-7) 4-man-qualifier Fri-Sat-Sun. It left them out in the Chicago cold without a ticket to the NTRA yet.

[MikeDee]

WOW

what a news letter this is going to take some serious reading to take it all in.

First 2 questions

on page 13 under truf routes there is a nvel under res-1. Is this supposed to have a rank like nvel-2?

on page 14 under live longshots topic no 4. You mention nvel and A/P but don't mention any rankings. Are both of these to be discussed at the seminar on how to use them without rankings?

[Rick]

May 2003 HTR Newsletter is up at members site.

Apr 2003 HTR Newsletter can be downloaded by right clicking on http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRMonthlyReport-APR2003.pdf

6 May 03 upgrade to HTR2001.exe can be downloaded by clicking on http://www.homebased2.com/km/dnl/HTR2001.exe

6 May 03 version of HX4.txt can be downloaded by right clicking on http://www.homebased2.com/km/dnl/hx4.txt

You can also download the following articles separately that are in the May 03 Newsletter.
Getting Started with HTR2001 at http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/Getting%20Started%20with%20HTR2001.pdf

Bullish on Longshots - Redux (2003) at http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/Bullish%20on%20Longshots-Redux%20(2003).pdf

Quarter Horse Handicapping at http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/Quarter%20Horse%20Handicapping%20(2003).pdf

[km]

Mike, thanks alot.

It looks like another promotion for you - "newsletter proof-reader". Rick and I spent the last 24 hours editing the thing and missed the omission of the ranking on page 13.

re: Page 13 nVEL
Should be nVEL-1 (rank-1), same for Fr3 on there, should be Fr3-1

re: Page 14 and elsewhere - generally mentioning factors without specific ranking.
This was on purpose but be aware that I only tested the 1-2 ranks in all factors except the K.
The nVEL (r1,2) is such a great tool (with PL-5) as it ignores all the conventional wisdom that lead to chalk!

There are other aspects to finding longshots that are tougher deal with without rankings.
Pscan range
A/P range
Pedigree (PED) and Trainer (TRN) ratings (not rankings)
Will report on best findings in Lexington

[MikeDee]

Thanks for the promo Ken. Can I expect the same % pay increase as with the last one??

[Glen]

HTR Org Chart

Ken Massa-Chief Executive Officer/President
Rick Bush-Chief Technology Officer/Web Dude
Mike Dee-???

BTW, the new Track Bias Tester Rocks!...Especially since it breaks down Non Maiden vs Maiden Races.

[fred4now]

Great newsletter Ken. I liked the detailed explanation of HTR2001. I would really like for someone who can consistently make money with it give an explanation of how they handicap with it. I am profitable with my automated line vs. the MLO but really don't know how to handicap for real. I would be happy to share what I do with any of our subscribers. Any takers?

[tomcat]

Great stuff Ken!

[MikeDee]

Ken,

One question about the impact numbers. I know that they are not pace line dependent, but I assume there is some PP line logic built into calculation of the numbers. Could you provide a short explanation of how the fps figs are selected that go into the impact calculations?

[MikeDee]

I know I have been around long enough that you would think I wouldn't need the getting started with HTR type information, but it is very enlighting for me to read want some of these number really mean.

I very much like the per, pac, and impact type numbers they make so much more sense to me then reading the raw fps figs. When I read the narative on pac and looked at it in access I fully expected to see and 1 for 1 relationship between the e/p rank and the pac number. But the following is typical.

tDATE tTRK nRACE rEP nPAC
5/6/03 CRC 1 0 0
5/6/03 CRC 1 1 85
5/6/03 CRC 1 2 79
5/6/03 CRC 1 3 79
5/6/03 CRC 1 4 77
5/6/03 CRC 1 5 71
5/6/03 CRC 1 6 81
5/6/03 CRC 1 7 79
5/6/03 CRC 1 8 72

the no 6 ranked ep horse is in fact the second rank pac horse. The same kind of thing occurs when you compare a/p rank and per.

Are these differences due to the adjustments made for level par? and is there some way to exploit the fact the the no6 e/p horse someting most any pace capper has is really the no 2 PAC horse some only htr has?

[Huguenot]

Originally posted by Ricks
May 2003 HTR Newsletter is up at members site.

You can also download the following articles separately that are in the May 03 Newsletter.
Getting Started with HTR2001 at http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/Getting%20Started%20with%20HTR2001.pdf

Bullish on Longshots - Redux (2003) at http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/Bullish%20on%20Longshots-Redux%20(2003).pdf

Quarter Horse Handicapping at http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/Quarter%20Horse%20Handicapping%20(2003).pdf

As a non-member I was able to download the first PDF (getting started) but got a
"file not found" for the second two. Are these only for members?


Huguenot

[ERNIE LOGSDON]

read your post two hours after you posted : members can't get the other two either----will report this post to webmaster (rick) would bet that he will fix as soon as he logs on-----

If I could find your email address anywhere you would have the whole thing by now.

OOPs: just learned that Reports to webmaster are for other subjects----so I'll email him-n-Ken (don't have MikeD's address either):)

[Rick]

Your right, the links don't work.

vBulletin cut them off.

But you can go to http://www.homebased2.com/km/library.htm

and down near the bottom of the page the articles are listed and the links work.

Guess I will just have to remove the links that don't work and replac it with the above link.:D

Sorry about that.

[km]

re: ARTICLE
HUG - send me an email, I'll send you back the entire newsletter this month that has all the articles. Rick has been working on a new "HTR-Library" section for us and there may be bugs in the links - we'll work on it. Thanks Ernie for your help.

Mike
For an explanation on the PAC, PER vs. Velocity fps numbers please read two threads started by MIDNIGHT within the Last60days =

"Bug?"
"Is this supposed to Happen?"

I discuss and explain the discrepency and the 'scaling' of the PAC-PER vs. straight velocity numbers with details and examples.

The Impact numbers are derived directly from the PL modes in HTR2001, (that was not the case in the DOS IMPACT version) but remember, they are taken at different segments than the VEL numbers, so don't compare them. RES, as explained in the last two newsletters, is derived from the final 1/8 mile only. ATT goes from the end of 1stCall to the 1/8 pole, which means that the entire "turn time" is included in ATT, unlike Fr2.

[Rick]

Thanks for letting me know.

I fixed them so that they work now.

[MikeDee]

Ken on the bombs away, does the PED >=450 does this apply to only to FTS or to any horse with a PED of >=450

[km]

GLEN
You flatter us too much with those corporate labels. I always thought of my business relationship with HTR customers as something more in line with being the president of Animal House!

FRED4NOW
Would love to spend a day betting the thoroughbreds with HTR if you want to meet at Los Alamitos satellite some time. If Ben comes he will burn your ear on his latest system. We usually get a signer by the end of the day, or at least enough winnings for a nice dinner. Another suggestion is to come and sit with the HTR gang ('laptop city') at a Vegas tournament; you don't need to be in the contest. Steve Kistler has done this recently and he has learned a lot. Ernie would agree, as he did the same thing before jumping in himself this year. Wes took the plunge at the last Orleans and I think it was great experience for him. Betcha everyone who has gone and sat in the first time would agree that tournaments are a tremendous learning experience because the focus is so intense on handicapping horses.

MIKEDEE
re: "newsletter proof reading job"
Slave wages are all I can offer, but you will get to see the newsletter 24 hours early!

re: PED and FTS
The PED tests were for all horses. I mentioned in the text that we certainly need further study with the PED on FTS, but there is no question that this rating has huge potential in all types of races (as we saw from the "bombs" today). I have felt from its inception that PED was a big surprise and exceeding my own expectations. The rating is really a far deeper mathematical understand of 'breeding class' than other sources that tend to rate generally by surface or assign a grade to the sire only. PED rating uses Sire, Dam and Dam Sire, and computes by specific dist/surf. In terms of FTS prediction, it is common knowledge which sires are high% and it is printed everywhere and lowers the odds. But that is a very one-dimensional statistic that is nicely overcome by the PED which gives us much more balanced appraisal. But perhaps its most important distinction is the fact that the PED has nothing whatsoever to do with individual race performance, making it a totally unique rating in that respect.

[MikeDee]

slave wages just what I had in mind....be happy to proof the newsletter, I read it cover to cover as soon as I get it anyway:)

[tomcat]

Ken, I'll volunteer for proof reading also.

Ken, I don't know if this will help, but in world of Equine Appraisal, the key factor is Sire Stud Fee. They change year to year by the market forces of buying and selling. ie Storm Cat with the highest stud fees in the world, almost automatically has some of the most highest price yearlyings in the world. Put him together with a multible Black Type mare, and the millionaires are bidding. So I'm thinking current stud fee involved in the PED might be helpful. Equibase has this, but I don't know if it is part of the file given to HDW. People track sire productivity in terms of stud fee. If a sire is over 1.0, it means that his prodginy are selling for $$$ greater than the stud fee. When we determine a sale or buying price for a yearling or weanling, it is a factor of the stud fee + mare productivity (or some people use the sire of the mare).