Bris Handicapping Contest

[Gambler]

Would any of you pros offer any advise on the do's and don't on this type contest.

Thanks for any advise
ed

[Navrah]

My advise:

Get real lucky!

I just couldn't resist.

[johnic]

I think that when all the races are mandatory, as they are in the BRIS contests, you have to strike a balance between trying to pick winners and shooting for price. I can almost guarantee that you can't win by picking 10-1 and up shots in every race, because (judging from past BRIS contests) the winners will have picked six or seven winners and only one or two will be longshots.

[Glen]

I hear this contest is not culmative...ie one winner per week, not a total of the 4 weeks.

[hdcper]

Glen is right and even further it is the largest bankroll at the end of one day(not number of winners).

Here is a brief paragraph off of Bris regarding the contest:

Here's how the contest works:
Players need to select one horse in each of the 10 designated contest races each contest date(dates are listed below). For each correct selection a player will earn the $2 win and place mutual payoff. The player with the highest accumulated bankroll for each contest date will be the grand prize winner of $5,000 and also earn a free trip to Las Vegas. The bankroll is based on mythical $2 wagers. The caps are 25-1 for win and 12-1 for place. You only need to register once to participate in all four legs of the Challenge.

Hope that helps,

Hdcper

[Glen]

Picks
Event 1

Keeneland - Race 4 (2:45 PM)

Primary Selection: Nakayama Kun
Alternate Selection: Prince Prado Event 2

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 6 (2:53 PM)

Primary Selection: There You Go
Alternate Selection: Smuggler Moon

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Event 3

Pimlico - Race 5 (3:04 PM)

Primary Selection: Mamosa
Alternate Selection: Lacey My Shoes Event 4

Gulfstream Park - Race 6 (3:10 PM)

Primary Selection: Il Barone (IRE)
Alternate Selection: Poppy's Image

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Event 5

Hawthorne - Race 6 (4:30 PM)

Primary Selection: I'm No Preppy
Alternate Selection: Alstott Event 6

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 10 (4:43 PM)

Primary Selection: Skip Over Finish
Alternate Selection: Changer

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Event 7

Keeneland - Race 8 (4:45 PM)

Primary Selection: Eye of the Tiger
Alternate Selection: Most Feared Event 8

Hawthorne - Race 8 (5:26 PM)

Primary Selection: Regency Park
Alternate Selection: Fight for Ally

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Event 9

Turf Paradise - Race 6 (6:59 PM)

Primary Selection: Venturesome Beau
Alternate Selection: Dazzling Sunny Event 10

Prairie Meadows - Race 1 (7:45 PM)

Primary Selection: Southern Blaze
Alternate Selection: Champagneforalydar

[Victor]

Event 1

Gulfstream Park - Race 5 (2:55 PM)

Primary Selection: Fuhry
Alternate Selection: Gold Ballad Event 2

Lone Star Park - Race 5 (4:27 PM)

Primary Selection: Na Hila
Alternate Selection: Lord Lionel

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Event 3

Woodbine - Race 8 (4:31 PM)

Primary Selection: Regal 'n Bold
Alternate Selection: Santerra Event 4

Santa Anita Park - Race 3 (4:32 PM)

Primary Selection: Outonthesly
Alternate Selection: Dr. Dubai

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Event 5

Woodbine - Race 10 (5:33 PM)

Primary Selection: Heard County
Alternate Selection: Dashing Knight Event 6

Bay Meadows - Race 7 (6:33 PM)

Primary Selection: Red River Valley
Alternate Selection: Phone Prospector

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Event 7

Santa Anita Park - Race 7 (6:37 PM)

Primary Selection: Value Play
Alternate Selection: Stratus (ARG) Event 8

Albuquerque - Race 8 (7:00 PM)

Primary Selection: Take Out the Trash
Alternate Selection: Runawayfun

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Event 9

Bay Meadows - Race 8 (7:01 PM)

Primary Selection: Miss Puzzle (AUS)
Alternate Selection: Miss New York Event 10

Santa Anita Park - Race 9 (7:37 PM)

Primary Selection: Special Matter
Alternate Selection: Champion Lodge (IRE)

[C_Martin]

Event 1

Gulfstream Park - Race 5 (2:55 PM)

Primary Selection: Fuhry
Alternate Selection: Bold Pete

Event 2

Lone Star Park - Race 5 (4:27 PM)

Primary Selection: Saxton's Engine
Alternate Selection: Lord Lionel

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Event 3

Woodbine - Race 8 (4:31 PM)

Primary Selection: Macdashi
Alternate Selection: Deputy Cures Blues

Event 4

Santa Anita Park - Race 3 (4:32 PM)

Primary Selection: Kings Exchequer
Alternate Selection: B. Good Hero

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Event 5

Woodbine - Race 10 (5:33 PM)

Primary Selection: Wild Ghost
Alternate Selection: Coolasacat

Event 6

Bay Meadows - Race 7 (6:33 PM)

Primary Selection: Saint Julien
Alternate Selection: Red River Valley

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Event 7

Santa Anita Park - Race 7 (6:37 PM)

Primary Selection: Stratus (FR)
Alternate Selection: Mr. Joe C Event 8

Albuquerque - Race 8 (7:00 PM)

Primary Selection: Sideways
Alternate Selection: Waveband

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Event 9

Bay Meadows - Race 8 (7:01 PM)

Primary Selection: Miss Puzzle (AUS)
Alternate Selection: Lacie Girl

Event 10

Santa Anita Park - Race 9 (7:37 PM)

Primary Selection: Delta Form (AUS)
Alternate Selection: Passinetti

[Victor]

Your Standing For
Sunday, April 20th, 2003
Position Name Location Bankroll
174 Victor R. NJ $85.40

[Victor]

Victor R - Position: 174
Event Horse Type Win Payoff Place Payoff Finish Position
1 Fuhry Primary - - 1
2 Na Hila Primary - - 2
3 Regal 'n Bold Primary - - 3
4 Outonthesly Primary - - 4
5 Heard County Primary - - 5
6 Red River Valley Primary *52.00 *26.00 6
7 Value Play Primary - - 7
8 Take Out the Trash Primary 3.60 3.80 8
9 Miss Puzzle (AUS) Primary - - 9
10 Special Matter Primary - - 10
$55.60 $29.80

* Caps: 25-1 for Win, 12-1 for Place

Total payouts (2 Wins, 0 Places): $85.40

[Cliff]

Victor (and any others),

Would be interested to hear what you saw in the HTR numbers for Red River Valley at Bay Meadows that inclined you to go with that horse. Nice Pick!

Cliff

[Victor]

Cliff,

I looked at the filtered model in HTR DOS, and third best LP showed 30% wins and ROI of 1.57 The bad part was, when I bet the race later with real money, I wasn't paying attention and played a different factor :( I bet (60) races on Sunday, at six tracks: WO, GP, BM, SA, Haw, and LS (cashed a $36 horse in race two), for a total ROI of 1.17 using this view the model strategy. Would have been much higher if I had bet Red River Valley in "real life" . . . I guess there are worse ways to play.

[Cliff]

Interesting, Victor,

I went back and tried to duplicate the effort, but, think I have more records in my modeler than you. Without too much trouble, can you tell me what paceline and how far back your data goes (or how many records in the modeler under that filter?)

Thanks,
Cliff

[Victor]

April 10th 2002, through April 19th, 2003
The statistics shown below DO include yesterdays bomb, so they are a bit higher than I stated before. Paceline 5
Data Used
---------
Class Type: CLM
Age / Sex : 3/4up Males
Distance : 6.0f
Surface : Dirt-Fast
Records Found: 100

VEL 26% 42% 59% 74% 87% 97% 00/09 $0.56 $0.67 $0.80 _
Fr1-Ev 18% 37% 54% 70% 81% 90% 02/09 $1.02 $0.78 $0.51 _
Fr2 15% 38% 53% 69% 84% 95% 03/09 $0.54 $1.14 $0.78 _
Fr3 14% 32% 53% 73% 84% 94% 02/09 $0.59 $0.55 $0.85 _
A/P 25% 43% 60% 77% 89% 95% 01/09 $0.60 $0.72 $0.80 _
E/P 16% 43% 57% 70% 85% 94% 03/09 $0.46 $1.23 $0.86 _
S/P 23% 39% 60% 80% 91% 96% 01/09 $0.68 $0.50 $0.95 _
F/X 23% 39% 59% 74% 90% 95% 01/09 $0.65 $0.67 $0.77 _
L/P-Lv 12% 31% 61% 72% 83% 93% 02/09 $0.47 $0.72 $1.84 _
(*) 22% 02/09 $0.71 _

[Cliff]

Thanks Victor,

I got it to match up.....I was using too many records. Sounds like this might be a nice way to to some weekend picking. Do you do this visually, or, have it programmed somehow. Either way, congrats again on the nice choice.

Cliff

[Victor]

Aqueduct - Race 4, Singasongforme
Beulah Park - Race 7, Rudolph
Churchill Downs - Race 6, Colonial Bay
Suffolk Downs - Race 6, Navy Blazer
Delaware Park - Race 7, Home Run Hitter
Tampa Bay Downs - Race 9, Novus Scofus
Hollywood Park - Race 3, Blind Ambition
Turf Paradise - Race 4, Perfect Fit
Lone Star Park - Race 9, Bluesthestandard
Hawthorne - Race 10, Pragmatic Pursuit

[Glen]

Event 1

Aqueduct - Race 4 (14:24)

Primary Selection: Tamusky
Alternate Selection: Dare to Be Great Event 2

Beulah Park - Race 7 (15:47)

Primary Selection: Shoptaw
Alternate Selection: Zarlingo

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Event 3

Churchill Downs - Race 6 (15:05)

Primary Selection: Captain Nicholas
Alternate Selection: Groovy Chief Event 4

Suffolk Downs - Race 6 (15:05)

Primary Selection: County Lineman
Alternate Selection: I'am Listening

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Event 5

Delaware Park - Race 7 (15:27)

Primary Selection: Elegant Designer
Alternate Selection: House Party Event 6

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 9 (16:17)

Primary Selection: Bag That Alarm
Alternate Selection: Blantyre

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Event 7

Hollywood Park - Race 3 (14:23)

Primary Selection: Shalini
Alternate Selection: Serene in Seattle Event 8

Turf Paradise - Race 4 (14:29)

Primary Selection: Perfect Fit
Alternate Selection: Bench Mench

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Event 9

Lone Star Park - Race 9 (17:11)

Primary Selection: Maysville Slew
Alternate Selection: Seainsky Event 10

Hawthorne - Race 10 (17:25)

Primary Selection: Lord Six
Alternate Selection: Chairman Cella

[Victor]

Victor R - Position: >1000
Event Horse Type Win Payoff Place Payoff Finish Position
1 Singasongforme Primary 10.40 5.30 1
2 Rudolph Primary - - 7
3 Colonial Bay Primary - 4.40 2
4 Navy Blazer Primary - - 3
5 Home Run Hitter Primary - - 4
6 Novus Scofus Primary - - 4
7 Blind Ambition Primary - 2.40 2
8 Perfect Fit Primary - - 10
9 Bluesthestandard Primary 5.00 3.40 1
10 Pragmatic Pursuit Primary - - 7
$15.40 $15.50

* Caps: 25-1 for Win, 12-1 for Place

Total payouts (2 Win Payoff(s), 4 Place Payoff(s)): $30.90

[Victor]

Event 1

Delaware Park - Race 5 (14:33)

Primary Selection: Ashmore
Alternate Selection: Curb Event 2

Philadelphia Park - Race 8 (15:22)

Primary Selection: Missy Turtle
Alternate Selection: Our Preciousmoment

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Event 3

Aqueduct - Race 7 (15:50)

Primary Selection: Mischieviously
Alternate Selection: The Name Was Gone Event 4

Philadelphia Park - Race 9 (15:50)

Primary Selection: North Hills
Alternate Selection: Everlasting Suave

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Event 5

Churchill Downs - Race 8 (16:07)

Primary Selection: Dancing With Me
Alternate Selection: Mysterieuse Etoile Event 6

Aqueduct - Race 9 (16:50)

Primary Selection: Spicy Award
Alternate Selection: Celtic Park

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Event 7

Lone Star Park - Race 6 (15:55)

Primary Selection: Ide Bet It All
Alternate Selection: Cool Spirit Event 8

Woodbine - Race 10 (17:36)

Primary Selection: Molly's Wisdom
Alternate Selection: Endeavor

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Event 9

Turf Paradise - Race 5 (14:58)

Primary Selection: Silver Brite
Alternate Selection: Henry J Event 10

Hollywood Park - Race 5 (15:23)

Primary Selection: Wild and Wise
Alternate Selection: Hugh Hefner

[Glen]

$58.60 won yesterday.

Todays Pigs...

Event 1

Delaware Park - Race 5 (14:33)

Primary Selection: Ashmore
Alternate Selection: Doctor Doo Wop Event 2

Philadelphia Park - Race 8 (15:22)

Primary Selection: Janey Girl
Alternate Selection: Seasonal Change

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Event 3

Aqueduct - Race 7 (15:50)

Primary Selection: Mischieviously
Alternate Selection: Golden Damsel Event 4

Philadelphia Park - Race 9 (15:50)

Primary Selection: In Every Port
Alternate Selection: Lone Traveler

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Event 5

Churchill Downs - Race 8 (16:07)

Primary Selection: Feeling So Pretty
Alternate Selection: Mysterieuse Etoile Event 6

Aqueduct - Race 9 (16:50)

Primary Selection: Spicy Award
Alternate Selection: Anties Boy

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Event 7

Lone Star Park - Race 6 (15:55)

Primary Selection: Turbo Bullet
Alternate Selection: Magic Weapon Event 8

Woodbine - Race 10 (17:36)

Primary Selection: Herbs Spirit
Alternate Selection: Rundle

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Event 9

Turf Paradise - Race 5 (14:58)

Primary Selection: Fourth Round
Alternate Selection: Silver Brite Event 10

Hollywood Park - Race 5 (15:23)

Primary Selection: Royal Moro
Alternate Selection: Gentlestone

[Victor]

Glen,

This a pig racing contest?
Why not.

Nice pick on the Captain.

Victor

[Victor]

Position: 362

BRIS told me there are around 5000 players involved.

Total payouts (3 Win Payoff(s), 5 Place Payoff(s)): $65.30

[Cliff]

Victor,

I think they might have "fibbed" to you on the numbers. The Citgo Pick 6 Challenge currently has around 13,000 playing. And, for a lot less money and prestige. I'd guess the Bris contest could draw upwards of 40,000. Anyone else got any quotes from them?

Don't forget that they are marketing genuises and don't want you to know how really difficult it is to win their contest. Mostly, they just want you to sign on and buy their stuff. Looks like you had some nice weeks either way.

FWIW,
Cliff

[Victor]

Cliff,

What's tougher, winning the BRIS contest or beating PL5 in the paceline challenge?

[Cliff]

Ha!, KN's preaching to the choir when it comes to PL5 and me!

For the 4 day Bris contest, it took an average of 71% of the maximum Win/Place payouts available to win the day.

Day 4 ran true to average as the maximum anyone could have earned hitting every race for it's max was $271.40. First place guy had $192.70 (71% exactly).

Haven't ever done the math under actual tournament conditions, but I'd guess if one could hit 71% of the maximum mutuels during tournaments, WORK wouldn't be a 4-letter word anymore!

Another FWIW!

[Glen]

Sun results, $57.10 won for 507th and 465th sat.

[ggpagels]

The best I could muster was #277 on 4/26 with 2 wins, 4 places = $67.00

[jbshoulda]

Tough contest. My best was 52nd and as per usual if I used my alternate I would have won. That's why I say shoulda.

[Gambler]

Didnt play saturday

Sunday--Position 330--Bankroll $67.50