Best Bets 6/29

[hurrikane]

Well, I've been lucky and have been just catching a horse here and there to keep me about where I was when we left for Vegas. Now it's into the stretch run and better go back to the ole longshot track and hope not to falter...
(Sue's picks...she say don't bet em down!)
Bet 432
Won 617
ROI 1.42

2 MNR
#6

4 MNR
#2

6 MNR
#3

7 MNR
#3

8 MNR
#7

$4 win on each and $4 on a West Va hotdog and a beer.

[Glen]

TLC Plays
$2 win bets please

1wo6
2wo4
4wo3
7wo2
8wo1
1pim3
3pim9
5pim5
7pim7
8pim1
9pim11
1mth4

[MikeDee]

PRM R6 $1 tri ($16)
2-4
2-4-8
1-2-4-6-7-8

MNR R8 7 $8 to win

bet 337
win 203
net -134

[MtKen]

A straight 'Carl'....$6 win

6 PLN 2
1 GLD 5
7 Prm 5
4 Wo 3

[The Wizard]

Hey Guys...................with 10 minutes to post i'll take

pimlico
race 9
$ 3 exacta
11/ 8-1-2-9-10 $15.00
$ 1. exacta
8-1-2-9-10 /11 $ 5.00
$ 4.00 win
# 11 $ 4.00


Good Luck tonight:p ;)

[hurrikane]

Good catch Wiz...they are beating them down though. Already moved 2 MNR horses to chalk on me...bummer

[George]

Yeah Hurrikane.....when you get on a roll somebody(s) do whack our picks. I kinda quit putting anything I really like that resembles a longshot out here. Hate to be greedy but it does affect the bottom line.

May have to get like HSH and make the picks section members only.

[Carl]

I have even a bigger problem than you guys.

I think I am beset by psychics. All I have to do is think about betting a horse with a MLO of 15-1 and bingo! Down to 5-2 it goes. I don't even have to post it.

In order to remain sane, I prefer the explanation that the MLO guys stink at most tracks, and haven't a clue as to the factors players are betting of off. But who knows?

I am also of the opinion that hardly anyone plays other people's posted horses, we are far too egotistical for that. I think we check out other people's plays to see if we agree with them , and that is about as far as it goes. As a matter of fact, I did post this question straight up at PA's about a year back, and I was the only one who admitted to occasionally playing other people's horses! I don't think anyone was lying about not betting anything but their own, they all think "they are the best."

However, I will conceed my opinion is in the minority here. Most players say they will not post picks because they feel some fool with more money than brains will hammer them. Maybe, but I personally think the reason that they don't post picks is just because they can't pick horses all that good before the race, although all can give you a fine redboard after.

As to the HSH "secret pick room", well it is keeping in style with the rest of the operation. The last time I tracked the "ExVex" picks they posted on their HSH public board, one in fifteen choices finished in the money. I will be so bold as to suggest that this is one more reason to keep their picks secret. As we all know all too well, publically predicting the outcome of the race before all the facts are in (i.e. a few minutes after post) can be very embarrassing.

So my final thought would be that if you don't want to post your horses here before the race, don't. And if you do want to post your horses here, do. In my case, I will certainly continue to public post. In most cases I barely have the nerve to play my own selections and would be amazed if anyone else did. It is not something I worry about.

later,
Carl

[MikeDee]

Carl,

I agree with you, there are lots of reasons that horses get bet down and the fact that someone here mentioned it would have to be at the bottom of the list. I don't think any of us are setting the racing industry on fire with our picks so why would some few high rollers with the jucie to bring down a pool be using our picks to do it?

[hurrikane]

I am sure both of you are right. And maybe it is a little ego working there. It is frustrating to find a few nice priced horses only to have them bet down to nothing. And as you say..anyone betting enough to effect the pools isn't going to rely on some pics off this board to make his decisions. If he wanted that he would pay the 119 a month..talk to a few up here and start making his own decisions.

[Glen]

I'm kinda in Georges corner here...I look at all the horses that you all post and about 80% of them are on the list that I am going to play today. Hence the horses I've posted lately are 90% fun plays.

People do play other peoples picks...Thats why people but tip sheets and some so on. If someone shows a profit over a couple of months posting thier picks, don't ya think that maybe someone might jump on the bandwagon and play em? When I did posting of Impact Beta plays, I got a handful of emails/request for me to post the plays earlier so they could look at em. Thats cool, but I imagine that some of them perhaps wanted to play them as well. Like I said, nothing wrong with that but just realize that poeple do bet other peoples bets.

The Tuesday morning following HTR seminar, Carl and I are sitting in the Stardust racebook. Carl likes one Ev in a race and I like another. I get kinda excited cause the horse I wanted to bet is at 50-1...Well anyways, this horse almost wins, loses by a neck. The guy sitting in front of us is chearing like hell for the same horse to win. After the race the guy ask us why we liked the horse...so we fill him with a little HTR jargon just to get him confused. So I asked him what he liked about the horse....He replied "I heard you guys talking about it"...lol

[The Wizard]

Hey Guys,

just wanted to chime in on the subject...............i also agree with george and glen about other people playing our picks............I know for a fact there is a guy in Texas playing our selections regulary.......... awhile back when i had a few good days together he e-mailed me and ask if i minded sending him my picks to his e-mail...............Plus if you look at all the services out there selling picks for horses and all other sports that tells me there's alot of people paying for selections for one reason or another..............So our these people really hurting our ROI its hard to really say for sure but its fun to discuss this matter...........just food for thought...........:p :D

[Carl]

Well,

Glen's story about the guy at the racebook is certainly true. And he played Glen's horse instead of my loser, and at 50-1 Glen's horse just gets caught on the last jump. Humm...

Just as a though Glen, why don't you post the question as a poll at PA's and let's see what the response is? Should be interesting. I did it before they had the polling function, PA does have more views now and maybe a different readship.

I would post it myself but
(1) I don't know how to do a poll, tried once here, got all balled up and discouraged and
(2) I don't post there.

later,
Carl

[George]

Just because I'm paranoid does not mean they are not trying to get me :)

Really didn't mean an army of lurkers is playing Hurrikane's picks. At the small pool tracks he is playing a few $20 win bets will cut the odds in half.

My recent solution was to post short-price horses or long shot fun bets that I don't really have much faith in. That has not been much fun, so next choice is as Carl says, don't post.

I do much better posting after the race so may start doing that. Now if I can get winticket to let me bet after the race I will be all set.

[hurrikane]

Well, in any case it has all been in fun. As Glen said we all probably have 80% the same horses just a question of which you decide to post for the funny money. Maybe next time we will do only exotics. That would be fun..sit around and watch Glen, Mike and George kick our butts.

Carl, posting at PAs board..things over there have gotten very juvenile lately. Probably not worth the effort. They may take Glen seriously though.

[MtKen]

Personally I have been playing Hurrikane's piks lately & if he continues @ 1.50 ROI I think anyone who follows this board will. My picks were going off way below m/l even when my ROI was 0.30 & I hadn't posted a winner in a month. Yesterday I had a 6/1 m/l pay $6.80 but it's been a consistent pattern----with my winners anyway. In fact I checked my db to see if underlaid m/l picks of mine should be bet harder as action horses but that doesn't hold up.

Personally I'd like to see a private board for those of us who have been posting picks so that we're the only ones who see the picks & to make it interesting & to encourage more 'serious'
picks I'd make the prize each month the HTR monthly fee-----so if we have about 10 posters everyone puts up $10-$15/mo.

We'd still have a public piks board for fun piks & boxcar dreams---

OR go back to handicapping a "Race of the Day" for the format.

BTW H-Kane I hope you've hit a couple of mine lately 'cause I've borrowed a couple of your winners--my max bet hasn't climbed above $15 though:cool: However another 5-10 people like me & your avg. mutuel is going to dip, esp. at MNR & everywhere else w/o a 20k pool.

I'm also considering posting my 'best' bets @ the major tracks only where I'm sure our piks won't be moved on the board.

Finally: if Hurrikane continues on this 1.50 Roi on a public board for another couple months he should just quit w**k & set up his internet shop ala Tommy C.----actually maybe w**k is just getting in your way 'Kane:D -----just retire. Then, of course, Murphy's Law might set in & horses will start jumping shadows & railings etc. as they hit the 1/8 pole....

[hurrikane]

I'm afraid Murphies Law would rule. Seems every time I raised my bet at craps in LV I lost. Finally I just started out betting high and kept winning. Don't know why that is..as soon as I start to pound them they go south. As for the picks..I'm leaning toward the larger tracks although..what has kept my roi at 1.5 is the 15.00 horses I've been hitting so I'm so sure the lurkers are betting. Those seemed seemed close to MLO althought I didn't really check. Who knows.

I think it would be cool to put together a pick 6 pool. anyone interested?