Big Class Drop

[Dr. Larry]

Wednesday April 2- 5th GP

#3 Bella Lauren: 6 starts with a MSW winner,
a NW1 winner and second. They liked her so
much after the NW1 win that they ran her in
a Grade 3. You can buy her tomorrow for 50K.

I don't know... I am asking. If the above type of
Horse is not injured, would it be given away for
50K?

The Fig line reads: 31, 24, 24, 20, 18, 22. There are
6 points of move from the 24 to the 18, followed
by a small bounce to the 22. If this horse is not
injured then it should run an in-between number
tomorrow which is a 20. The 20 should allow
Bella to easily demolish the field.

I don't know. Any insights ??

Thank's ...Larry

[Glen]

Hey Larry,

I don't know the answer but there are a couple good trainers who live on the huge class drop. Down here at LS/LAD/OP Cole Norman lives on this angle. Looks like Shuman as well at GP. This trainer win 19% with a positve ROI on purse drops so he might be looking to get a win. It sure is a huge class drop isn't it? Will be interesting to see what happens...BTW, the trainer is 5/19 (26%?) in the last 30 days. He normally wins 14% so he might be looking to bag a few winners this month...

As a side note: A question...what makes a trainer go from being a fair to spare trainer (ex: Wins 13%ish) to a trainer that wins over 25% during the last month?
My thoughts: Obviously he is doing something different. It could be class drops, new owners, new drugs, new nutritional program, new training program...the list goes on. But interesting none the less...

[Dr. Larry]

Thank's Glen,
At the price, will skip the race.

[hurrikane]

Glen,
I wish I had the answer to your question on trainers. If I could see that coming I could retire.
I think it has to do with a lot of things. Let's take Shuman. Most of his stats come from Gill wanting the owner title at GP. Interesting thing is after a few weeks his win% started dropping big time. I"m guessing it's because they had claimed all of the horses worth claiming and had run the pool dry. Now that they are running thier claims back 3 and 4 times the wins drop dramtically (they are also bet way down).

Cole is something else. I had him big time early but now can hardly play him, not because he doesn't win...it's because all of his legitimate runs are 7/5.

The 30 day stat is one of the critical pieces of info causing a spot play of mine to run 19% wins and 1.49% ROI. That's over 2 yrs. And has held up going forward since Dec. It is a great stat and I have even broken it down by track.

Sorry you can't make the Orleans. I'll try to fill in at LS for you. :D

[Glen]

Looks like a winner Dr. Larry.

[Dr. Larry]

Bella Lauren was Claimed for 50K by
Edward Plesa, Jr. You were right about
style of certain trainers, Glen.

[MtKen]

I have a sample of 40k+ K1's/C90 #1's, rMLO 1 or 2, Roi is about 0.88 on the lot with about 33% winners. Clmrs doing a <=-3 class change & finished 1st or 2nd last out have an Roi of only 0.70 but their win % is still about 33%. Just seem to get overbet. Those that drop -3+ but finished 3rd or worse do 33% & 0.87...