km
18th March 2003, 02:47.07 AM
We are 18 days away and its time to get serious about doing your homework if you want to take home a fat check from the Orleans. Here are some tips to think about when running queries, looking through spreadsheets, checking race results,etc -->
= Do not lump the AQU inner surface results into your data. If you have lots of data from AQU, you'll have to separate by date. Use March 20 as your cutoff. The inner track is an entirely different animal from the Main and the results should not be mixed. I took this precaution with the Track BIAS and separated them in the report.
= By April 1, SA and GP will be coming to the end of their long meetings. You should definitely not mix GP 2002 results in your studies, as the meet last year was more like a "CRC at GP" and certainly the worst GP meet in 10 years; all the horses were gone. SA is pretty steady
and you can lump the OakTree Fall meet 2002 in with 2002 Winter meet with good results. Do this particularly with the grass races, and specifically the 6.5T downhill for which there is limited data.
= BM, PIM and KEE will have just begun their meets. This can be a headache or godsend if you guess right. All three of these tracks have had notorious inside speed bias's in recent years. At KEE it did not reappear as strongly last Fall. BM was a key track last April for many of us at HTR when we hit a 30/1 shot wire to wire on the turf. The first week of a new meet is the good time to take a shot with turf longshots.
= OP remains one of the best tracks in North America for overlays and predictable longshots. Because they run all the races on the dirt at typical distances, data is easy to accumulate and study. But OP is a strange track during and after wet periods, so be careful of making assumptions about any bias there.
= HAW and all the IL tracks have had their extremes with the Track Bias. We found a situation in the 1-turn mile at AP that was producing 80% of the winners at one tourney. Check the HAW track profile daily, it was unbelievable for Espeed early in the meet. Extreme early speed bias; that is the Rx for crushing a tournament!
= Watch those 3yr old races. This is the time when the 3yr is maturing and improving rapidly.
Strong signs of improvement include high early speed (bad finish ok), improved ratings when stretching out, and strong pedigree and trainer ratings. The top-gun trainers will get the most stunning improvement out of a youngster. Longshot and overlays are abundant with 3yr claimers in particular, but happen in Graded Stakes too, as we see every year, especially the Ky Derby.
I expect to arrive about 11pm on the Wed night before the tourney. If some of you would like to have a pow-wow about midnight, let me know, we'll share notes and talk turkey.
= Do not lump the AQU inner surface results into your data. If you have lots of data from AQU, you'll have to separate by date. Use March 20 as your cutoff. The inner track is an entirely different animal from the Main and the results should not be mixed. I took this precaution with the Track BIAS and separated them in the report.
= By April 1, SA and GP will be coming to the end of their long meetings. You should definitely not mix GP 2002 results in your studies, as the meet last year was more like a "CRC at GP" and certainly the worst GP meet in 10 years; all the horses were gone. SA is pretty steady
and you can lump the OakTree Fall meet 2002 in with 2002 Winter meet with good results. Do this particularly with the grass races, and specifically the 6.5T downhill for which there is limited data.
= BM, PIM and KEE will have just begun their meets. This can be a headache or godsend if you guess right. All three of these tracks have had notorious inside speed bias's in recent years. At KEE it did not reappear as strongly last Fall. BM was a key track last April for many of us at HTR when we hit a 30/1 shot wire to wire on the turf. The first week of a new meet is the good time to take a shot with turf longshots.
= OP remains one of the best tracks in North America for overlays and predictable longshots. Because they run all the races on the dirt at typical distances, data is easy to accumulate and study. But OP is a strange track during and after wet periods, so be careful of making assumptions about any bias there.
= HAW and all the IL tracks have had their extremes with the Track Bias. We found a situation in the 1-turn mile at AP that was producing 80% of the winners at one tourney. Check the HAW track profile daily, it was unbelievable for Espeed early in the meet. Extreme early speed bias; that is the Rx for crushing a tournament!
= Watch those 3yr old races. This is the time when the 3yr is maturing and improving rapidly.
Strong signs of improvement include high early speed (bad finish ok), improved ratings when stretching out, and strong pedigree and trainer ratings. The top-gun trainers will get the most stunning improvement out of a youngster. Longshot and overlays are abundant with 3yr claimers in particular, but happen in Graded Stakes too, as we see every year, especially the Ky Derby.
I expect to arrive about 11pm on the Wed night before the tourney. If some of you would like to have a pow-wow about midnight, let me know, we'll share notes and talk turkey.