Churchill Racefile Up?

[km]

If you noticed a CD racefile in the download for Thursday this is the Kentucky Derby Future pool list. A quick check of the odds on YOUBET shows that "All Other Horses" was 7/2! How ridiculous is that? The board favorite in the Derby will not be that low on the day of the race. If a few of the "ALL Others" make the it to CD on the first Sat in May, they will all be 20/1 or more anyway, might as well bet them all on Derby day for much better odds. Taking anything under 20/1 in the future book seems like a sucker bet too. Here are some dominant characteristics of horses that prevail in the Run for Roses to look for =

1) broke the maiden at a Class-A track (AQU, BEL, SAR, DMR, HOL, SA, GP, KEE, CD) in an open Msw race within the first two or three tries as a 2yr.

2) followed up the maiden win with strong performance in a Nw1 or minor stakes. More impressive if stretching out.

3) Improved its ratings when stretching out to a two-turn race for the first time. Did not struggle trying 8f or 8.5f against Alw or Stk company for the first time.

4) If a closer, ran competitively in its first try against Graded company around two-turns, but a win is not necessary. Or dominated on the front end against Graded company.

5) Big Pedigree Rating (500+)

6) Trainer rating good (with "no rider") (300+)

Other opinions and comments encouraged. In April, we will be adding a KY Derby forum to the bbs and having a contest for those that want to pick the winner in public.

[km]

Pool 2 is closed. Empire Maker runs a big one and is now co-chalk with "all others"

1 Aristocat 64-1
2 Atswhatimtalknbout 8-1
3 Badge Of Silver 10-1
4 Champali 10-1
5 Composure (F) 70-1
6 Domestic Dispute 28-1
7 Empire Maker 3-1
8 Funny Cide 40-1
9 Great Notion 66-1
10 Inamorato 37-1
11 Indy Dancer 17-1
12 Kafwain 15-1
13 Lion Tamer 19-1
14 Man Among Men 25-1
15 Ministers Wild Cat 27-1
16 Ocean Terrace 40-1
17 Offlee Wild 37-1
18 Peace Rules 18-1
19 Region Of Merit 48-1
20 Senor Swinger 72-1
21 Supah Blitz 164-1
22 Ten Cents A Shine 46-1
23 Trust N Luck 29-1
24 Field - All other 3yos 3-1

[Glen]

I didn't wager in Pool 2 but bet 3 horses in Pool 1:

Got money on Empire Maker, Indy Dancer and Senior Swinger.


# Name Morning Line* Final Odds-to-$1 Win Pool Total $2 Will Pay
1 Apalachian Thunder 30-1 62.60 $6,822 $127.20
2 Atswhatimtalknbout 50-1 28.80 $14,537 $59.60
3 Badge Of Silver 50-1 11.30 $35,087 $24.60
4 Domestic Dispute 15-1 19.80 $20,816 $41.60
5 Empire Maker 20-1 12.80 $31,337 $27.60
6 Funny Cide 30-1 93.00 $4,619 $188.00
7 Indy Dancer 20-1 18.80 $21,824 $39.60
8 Kafwain 10-1 12.00 $33,268 $26.00
9 Lion Tamer 20-1 20.40 $20,224 $42.80
10 Man Among Men 30-1 29.10 $14,402 $60.20
11 Ministers Wild Cat 20-1 24.70 $16,851 $51.40
12 Offlee Wild 15-1 34.90 $12,088 $71.80
13 Ozzie Cat 50-1 50.70 $8,394 $103.40
14 Peace Rules 30-1 66.30 $6,450 $134.60
15 Saintly Look 30-1 65.20 $6,550 $132.40
16 Seattle Hoofer 50-1 42.40 $9,984 $86.80
17 Senor Swinger 20-1 43.60 $9,721 $89.20
18 Siberland 20-1 114.90 $3,745 $231.80
19 Sky Mesa 8-1 12.10 $32,899 $26.20
20 Ten Cents A Shine 20-1 34.40 $12,255 $70.80
21 Toccet 10-1 12.00 $33,250 $26.00
22 Trust N Luck 20-1 19.10 $21,502 $40.20
23 Whywhywhy 30-1 62.40 $6,846 $126.80
24 All Other 3-year-olds 2-1 2.20 $133,435 $6.40

[Donnie]

Glen-
How did you land on Senor Swinger? I was asking for a 3rd or 4th place finish this past weekend from him. If he wins his next prep race he will be coming to hand at just the right time! Nice odds on all three!

[Glen]

Hey Donnie,

I was looking for horses as KM had indicated above. Horses w/ late interest that looked to improve on the stretch out. I actually had forgotten who I had bet on till this morning...Had to look at youbet.com betting records to see what horses they were...Turned out one of them was Empire Maker:)