Pick 3 probable payoffs

[ggpagels]

Anyone out there know of a calculator or program that will estimate a pick three payoff price base on the probable odds of the three winning horses?:confused:

[BMeadow]

Depends on the track takeout to win vs. the track takeout for pick 3's.

If we assume a 17% win takeout and 25% Pick 3 takeout, here's an example:
Assume each winner has 20% of the pool.
To win, each horse would pay $8.20 (calculated by taking $100 - $17 takeout, then subtracting $20 from the remaining $83 to get $63, then dividing $63 by $20 to get odds to $1 which is $3.15, then subtracting breakage, then calculating $2 payoff).

In the pick 3, the combination of three such horses would have 0.8% of the pool (.20 x .20 x .20). To make this easier, we use $1000...
Take $1000 - 25% takeout which equals $750.
Winning combination has $8 on it.
Take 750 - 8 to get $742.
Divide 742 by 8 to get odds to $1 which is $92.75, reduced to $92.70 by breakage.
A $2 pick 3 would therefore pay $187.40.

Now figure the parlay ($8.20 rolled over 3 times) which is $137.84

Pick 3 pays 36% more than a parlay.

These figures vary depending on the takeout. In California, it's 31%.

Now let's assume your three horses will pay $19.20, $8.60, and $10.20. You first figure the parlay (which is A x 1/2B x 1/2C) which is $421.05. Multiply this by 1.31. Your expected Pick 3 payoff for $2 is $551 plus a few cents.

At certain tracks, pools are small and only a couple of more tickets on a certain combination will greatly affect the prices one way or the other.

Just because a Pick 3 normally outperforms a parlay doesn't necessarily make it a good bet. A parlay is a stupid bet (no determination whether each horse is an overlay, changing bet size based on result of previous race, etc.) so it's foolish to compare one dumb bet with another bet (which may, or may not, be dumb).

Pick 3's which contain more than one favorite generally do not pay close to the 31% bonus. We've published some research on this in Meadow's Racing Monthly (March 1999; a complete index is at www.trpublishing.com).

[ggpagels]

Barry,
Thanks for the info.:D

[MikeDee]

I was watching TV-G the other day and one of the announcers did a $36 P3 with the favs in al three legs, as luck would have it all three favs came in and it paid $8 and change.

A few days ago another guy on TV-G guy hit a P4 he touted for $2500

[tomcat]

Wow, with the pools changing so rapidly and then that last rush of money just before the gates open, that's really high tech calculating.

Hey, BM, you need to get Ken Massa to explain all that to us poor old horse players.

Hope to see you at the Orleans.

[tommyc]

Hey Barry....good to see you posting on the board.
We appreciate it.

tommyc