Significant Class Change

[Buckfan]

In perusing some old files I think it would be very useful in the "Class Change" portion of TLC to have an (*) or something that would indicate what one might consoder a "significant" change such as :

*First Time in a Claimer (MdnSpclWt to MdnClmr mostly....but perhaps Alw's to clmr as well??)
*Horse is Dropping to Lowest Claiming Tag today
*Major Track Class Changer (e.g. CD to MNR)


***Please Note: these changes would occur not just from the last race only, but from all 10 races showing in the PP's to today's race.

Class change from last race alone is definitely important and a great karma change or sign of trainer intent, whatever one calls it. But a trainer is really telling you something when the horse sees a MdnSpclWt for the first time shown in its past performances, or is shipping from (all 10 races showing in PP's) TP to Mnr today, ...we may need to take a closer look, and a (*) notifier may just cause us to take that second look. I tried looking at the class number compared to today and that does not appear to work....the change I am speaking of must come from tag to tag considerations for claimers, and track level class.

This class change idea was something I have been thinking about mentioning here on the board for sometime, but the HTR tools are so awesome I definiteley am not being critical of any of it. Best tool in the business as far as I am concerned. But I have tossed my 2 cents in the barrel anyway. Comments, ideas anyone ?

Thanks for considering my idea.

Buckfan

[tomcat]

Hey Buck, I like it.
Poor Ken....he will never satisfy us. But shoot, that's why we hang around.

[Buckfan]

Good point Tomcat...just know how useful it could be for all.

[tomcat]

Hey Buck, have you ever tested these? I sometimes ask Ken to test something before he puts it in. No sense to put something in that may lead us in the wrong direction.
My experience is many times things sound good, but when you test them, they are not so good.

[Buckfan]

Hello Tomcat....

If you are asking for db results etc , no I do not have analysis to the nth degree on this but pencil and DRF results have surely helped me over the years. I am not good enough with software such as access and other db's or I would definitely try to give you some hard data. To me this is just a form of trainer intent (dropping to a tag not seen in last several outings) that can be seen in DRF at a quick glance. I wouldnt know where to begin with writing a amall program to research this. Once I learn more about db's, this and other items will be on the agenda to thoroughly analyze. And yes, I know Ken is very very busy and I am not just throwing something on the wall to hope it sticks. I would not post something that has not worked or benefitted handicapping in some way and that I have not researched myself (even if it is just with pencil and drf). Thanks for the feedback!!

Buckfan

[km]

Thanks for your suggestions Buckfan! Appreciate the nice compliments also. Keep em coming.

Should be no problem to provide those items you requested, contact me regarding a custom program with your special set of alerts. When it comes to custom jobs, the sky is the limit and you can do your own thing.

As TomCat remembers we used to provide all kinds of alerts and flags based on various items throughout the pps or changes from the last race. We still have some that he chose in the TLC. [TLC is Tomcats custom program in return for 5 years of speaking at HTR seminars]. But he understands that it can get out of hand as we joked regarding the "no chance" comment in the old Stardust sheet on this forum recently.

The 'can of worms' for alerts and flags is equal to the trainer items. If you add L2 (Lasix 2nd time) someone inevitably requests L3 and also asks to make it L3* if the trainer win above 16%. Then someone else wants #L3* to indicate that there is jockey switch along with that. Next guy says that those items are only important if there is drop in class so now we have #L3*d. And there is the logical assertion by another that all this is meaningless unless the horse is a 4yr filly running in Alw race because he tested it!! On and on it goes, and most of it is really only useful to one handicapper. That is why I usually ask users that have a pet item or two to contact me and get the spot play or alert into a custom readout.

I'm not in favor of busying the PP's with additional symbols, markers and flags. The PP's are a set of symbols themselves that alert as a whole in a large context. For example, suppose you clicked to the PP's and saw the following lines for a horse entered today at MNR in a C04.

033---MNR---C04
046---MNR---C04
239---CD-----Nw1
294---KEE----Nw1

Immediately you are struck that something very bad has happened to this poor horse! It just doesn't seem necessary to add special flags for this -->

033---MNR---C04
046---MNR!--C04!
239---CD-----Nw1
294---KEE----Nw1

The "!" could designate big track-class move and huge class drop, but it is it needed?

As far as changes and movement from the last start, we will get a host of that in the new trainer file that Ron is working on. Much of it goes beyond the trainer himself. For example, it will identify the CD to MNR ship and give us the trainer's record with that. But regardless of the trainer's record when he sends a horse to MNR from CD (the horse could have been sold to a MNR trainer and have no such record) it will highlight the fact that the move is taking place at all. Our current PDF and text trainer stats often get my attention to things like "2nd grass" or "3rd after layoff" that I hadn't been conscience of at first glance. So maybe we can utilize that information with the type of attention that Buckfan recommends on a regular program readout.

My problem with 'alerts' and 'horses to watch' and 'better than looked' and 'key race' identication, etc is that it tends to over focus on one horse. These days, 'horses to watch' lists are so easily obtained that when a -"in tight, blocked, flew when free"- runner returns to race it gets hammered by the 'smart money' without regard to the rest of the horses in the field it still needs to beat. We know that the 'smart money' takes a beating on such chalk, same with sheet players that bet on the basis of a top number or "bounce", or trainer players that have a single strong stat; but it doesn't stop them because they hit a 30/1 shot in 1988 and think it must work every time, even if the horse is 2/1 today.

[tomcat]

Hey Buck... sometime ago I remember Tom Brohammer talking about the "suspicious drop". Remember the old say... if it is too good to be true, it probably is...

I have played for years the DIC (down in class) and V1. Have hit some nice pays, but I find that it comes and goes and I only play it at certain tracks.

Who has a good DIC play?