Misdiagnosed Handicapping Effort- LSP 6/23 Race 4

[Cliff]

All,

Was wondering if any of you had horse #4 Star of Texas pop up on any plays at Lone Star Park on Saturday, June 23rd, Race #4? MLO were 20-1.

Using PL5 and reviewing velocity screens, it was ranked 3rd in FR1, 2nd in estimated finish time, and 2nd in A/P and score. Impact showed five horses within 7eDif of each other, so appeared to be enough early speed to allow Star of Texas to use top Res number to come from off the pace.

To further bolster Star of Texas' chances, horse #1 W W Dot scratches which moves Star up a notch in every category. First flash of toteboard has Star at 3-1. I'm thinking some of you guys/gals (or other people) have hammered this filly down. To further complicate matters, she has an unknown trainer and an 0-fer jockey.

I, in my infinite wisdom, decide this is the horse of the day to key on, and use it in the first, second, and third position with 5 to 6 other horses on the trifecta. Well, you can pretty much guess what happens.....Star gets a slow start, never really makes a move, and finishes 3rd from last in field of 9. So, here are a few questions:

1) Can someone tell me what HTR is seeing in this horse's speed figures? I even tried taking the paceline selection off of the default (5 and 6 back) and moving to more recent races. Still ranked high in velocity.

2) Can you see anything in the PP's that I overlooked?

3) Any suggestions on how to avoid these devasting hits to your ROI (besides not gambling)?

Thanks for any advice.
Cliff

[George]

Cliff.......I really hesitated on responding to your question because it is always clear AFTER the race what one should have done. Too easy to nitpick your analysis with hindsight.

Think the pacelines on the horse tended to mislead. Last two races were on turf at much higher par than the horse normally runs in. HTR in my opinion does not translate turf to dirt very accurately. Don't know any pace program that does.

PL 5 took you back to best race he ever ran, but at lower par on dirt at HOU.

Just one of those unhappy moments where any paceline you used would make him look better than he was.

Saw only two things that might have dissuaded me from betting him. Jockey sucked with 5% win rate and not any better on place. The MLO of 20/1 would have made me look a little harder at the past performance lines.

Looking at PP's the trainer had really moved the horse up in class after the good Hou race and had gotten him thoroughly beaten in last four starts. Was now dropping back in class a little so I might have bit.

In summary, don't think you really did much wrong, just one of those hard to figure races and the way the PL fell was misleading in any case.

[George]

Thought Cliff might be interested in a method I use to do my own "class" on the type of race he was analyzing. The method is not as useful on claimers but seems to work on allowance nw1, nw2, etc extremely well. With hindsight, appears would have helped on the above claiming race.

Par for the race was 94. Cliff's selection had just ran in a 96 and htr is showing him as #1 in class. My approach shows him a little different.

Find the best finish position each horse has in last seven races. If best is tied use most recent of the tied races. Jot down par of that race for each horse.
6/23 LS Race 4

#2 89 last race
#3 90 line 6
#4 90 line 6
#5 89 line 3
#6 96 line 6
#7 94 line 5
#8 91 line 5
#9 88 line 5
#10 87 line 6

#6 and #7 appear to be the class of the field. Six was a nice $16 winner.
Something to look at when one has time.

[Glen]

Cliff,

Don't think you did anything wrong. Just the horse didn't win...and thats part of the game.


I used to play Tri's by keying a single horse but go my buttocks handed too me too many times when my key horse didn't run as expected....so I found other ways to get my buttocks handed to me...Actually any of the following Tri formulas will spread out your money a little better and still give you a good chance to win...

AB
ABC
ABCDE
$12 for $1 wager

AB
ABCD
ABCDEF
$24 for $1

Generally I will make A horse the most likely winner in field. Doesn't mean it is the favorite, just the most likely winner. B hores is the value or longshot horse in field (Kinda like your #4 horse yesterday, Ev1 or whatever). Then alternate CDEDF w/ opposite running styles. Ugly pigs who are Lv1 w/ 20-1 odds make for good bets in the E and F Slots.

Or try Tomcat formulas...

Best of luck,
Glen

[hurrikane]

I am 100% in sync with Glen...of course exotics are not my strong point but in any race there are too many variables to anguish over why a horse didn't win. Unless of course that is a common course..then maybe I am missing something or trying too hard. When ever I start to question myself...I walk away for awhile.

[Cliff]

Guys,

Thanks for the input....would like any more if any one wants to post. Ironically, I ran this particular race through Allways/Millennium as well just to get another view. With 3 different "profiles" the horse was picked 1st, 3rd, 3rd, without taking into the effect of the #1 horse being scratched. Only thing is that Millennium went back 5 races for the paceline as well. Obviously, the horse has not found it's competitive level after breaking it's maiden. Apparently, throwing the turf races in there didn't help the speed figures either.

I will chalk it up to a "lesson" in the learning curve of handicapping, and, simply hope I do better next time. They will run around in a circle somewhere again tomorrow, right?

Cliff

[Glen]

Cliff,

LS is a very difficult track to handicap...Why? Cause the best horses don't win under most of the conditions. One way for us to be successful using HTR at LS is to take advantage of the Modeler.


For example, lets look at Turf Routes at LS.

Allowance/Stakes MLO favorites are only winning 16% of the last 25 races for the meet. So in a race like this, don't even play the fav. Toss him...

88% of winners are within 3.99 of PSCAN diff.

In a race like this, we could either pass or pick a couple of value horses with 3.99 of PSCAN diff to play to win or on top of an exotic wager.

So far, I've had a good LS meet cause I'm using the modeler more and doing less hardcore traditional capping.

[MikeDee]

Cliff,

I agree with Glen all of this stuff is just trying to predict how a horse might run today. There are lots of reasons a horse may not run to form. If you are regularly keying horses that do not finish ITM them you need to question your methods but can't really can't do that based on 1 horse that did not run as expected.

A while back Ken did a article on finding a runner that wins 50% of the time. It's super caulk of course, but good for finding singles in a pick 3 or 6's. I have been playing with it recently (with a couple of additional factors) trying to adapt it finding a runner to key in tri's.
here it is:

fast dirt ML<=2 rMLO=1 Lay<=30 trainer >=300 Rprb =1 No FTS in race.
You'll get quite a few plays in a day over all tracks, but maybe one or less plays at any one track.

I have found that you can expect a runner that qualifies to finish ITM in a range between 65% to 85% of the time. The % finish varies by track and by field size. The key runner will win 35 to 50% place 15 to 20% and show 10 to 20%. I pretty much ignore small fields as the tri pays squat in them unless some bombers come in 1,2 and the fav is 3rd.

This kind of key gives you a good shot at the key horse finishing ITM and some big payoffs when the key runner finishes 3rd. And your long shots finish on top or second

[jetcity]

Was wondering if any of you had horse #4 Star of Texas pop up on any plays at Lone Star Park on Saturday, June 23rd, Race #4? MLO were 20-1.

The first thing I look at is PSCAN to see if the ODDS line up. Note that #4 is out of whack. Next, I would look at the RS and note that there doesn’t seem to be any early speed. Look at the WO screen and noticed that # 2 had a WO 2 days ago. ( Very Positive esp. for $10 claimers ). I would then check the pace line selection Screen # 5 and then go to PRAT to see if I can find a better pace line or identify any early speed.

Ok, I am still confused , so it is on to Impact.

Write down the Impact Key horse's and the check the Trainers column. IMHO no trainer action.

Early – 2, 8 ( like the # 2 because it is early and WO 2 days ago)
Att (TT) 7 – 4 – Circle the 7 since it is gt that 8 over the next TT
RES – 4 – 6

I would then go to the TLC report and play around with the PL 1 thru 5 to see if I come up with anything else. Nothing there that I see that eliminates my confusion.


I would build 2 $6 TRI’s play by finding the key. I would be inclined to key the an ESP horse and would pick the # 2 because of the WO..

2 / 4, 7, 8 / 4, 7 ,8
4, 7, 8 / 2 / 4, 7, 8.

I would eliminate one of the TRI’s and go with the 4, 7, 8 / 2 / 4, 7, 8 ( maybe the # 6 in show hole). I have found over the years that playing my key horse in the Place hole has been very positive. I have 3 horses that can beat my key. Would probably cut this down to a $ 4.00 bet and go with the 7,8,/ 2, / 4, 7, 8 and maybe 4, 7, 8 / 2 / 7, 8 for an $ 8.00 bet

I think the key to this race and the TRI bet is that the RS is screwed up in that the Early speed is in doubt. I have often thought that a sharp Jock can take advantgage of this type of race and steal it.
jetcity

[hurrikane]

Jet,
haven't looked at the race but I will. Just curious why you dropped the 2 horse out of the 1 hole...odds?

[jetcity]

I play the TRI and over the years I have found that at times you get a better payoff when you have 3 horses going against your Key. I normally play a 1 / 2 3 4 / 2 3 4 and a 2 3 4 / 1 /2 3 4 for $ 12.00. If the odds are low I will cut this back to a 1 / 2 3 / 2 3 4 for $ 4.00. I have found that I am a lot better off playing the 2 3/ 1 / 2 3 4. It is just a way to cut down on the bet and still get a nice payoff if I hit. Nothing worse that a $ 15.00 TRI unless you hit it 10 times which I rarely play.

Once in a Harness race with one scratch ( 7 horse field) I played a $ 42.00 TRI with a 6-5 five in the second hole,

All / 3 (6-5 shot) / All for $ 42.00 and it payed over $ 700.


jetcity