Sheets Guy
3rd February 2003, 03:52.50 PM
I’ve been a regular sheet user (and sometimes velocity handicapper) for the past 10 years. Over that period I’ve probably spent more time analyzing and quantifying patterns than almost anyone (mostly by hand inputting into a database program since the sheet providers won’t let you get at the raw data). A couple of observations on grass races that I’ve shared with Ken.
1) Grass horses rarely bounce. I’m not sure whether that’s a function of the surface or the fact that most grass races aren’t contested until the final 2 furlongs I’m not sure. What I can tell you is that grass horses will run to their best about 70% of the time assuming a clean trip (a big if). A turfer that’s coming off a really bad race is nearly as likely to run back to their best as one coming off a good one.
2) Distance considerations are much less of an issue on grass than they are on dirt. Using Thorograph or Ragozin sheets, for most horse I notice no discernible difference in ability +/- 1.5 furlongs. In other words, a horse that can get a mile is on average likely to run as well up to about 9 or 9.5 furlongs. Now of course that won’t hold in every instance, particularly for uncontrollable F’s but I think the 1.5 furlong estimate is a good rule of thumb.
3) Consequently, it makes sense to choose a paceline that represents a horse’s current best possible effort within 1.5f of today’s distance. I generally use highest S/P or F3 paceline. For high class animals that might be a race they ran 6 starts and/or a year ago. For cheaper claimers it’s probably the best they ran in the past 6 months. I think (and we’ll see if experience bares this out) that the reduced predictability of velocity handicapping on the grass has more to do with paceline selection than any other single variable.
I’m more than happy to discuss in greater detail with anyone that’s interested.
Sheet Guy
:)
1) Grass horses rarely bounce. I’m not sure whether that’s a function of the surface or the fact that most grass races aren’t contested until the final 2 furlongs I’m not sure. What I can tell you is that grass horses will run to their best about 70% of the time assuming a clean trip (a big if). A turfer that’s coming off a really bad race is nearly as likely to run back to their best as one coming off a good one.
2) Distance considerations are much less of an issue on grass than they are on dirt. Using Thorograph or Ragozin sheets, for most horse I notice no discernible difference in ability +/- 1.5 furlongs. In other words, a horse that can get a mile is on average likely to run as well up to about 9 or 9.5 furlongs. Now of course that won’t hold in every instance, particularly for uncontrollable F’s but I think the 1.5 furlong estimate is a good rule of thumb.
3) Consequently, it makes sense to choose a paceline that represents a horse’s current best possible effort within 1.5f of today’s distance. I generally use highest S/P or F3 paceline. For high class animals that might be a race they ran 6 starts and/or a year ago. For cheaper claimers it’s probably the best they ran in the past 6 months. I think (and we’ll see if experience bares this out) that the reduced predictability of velocity handicapping on the grass has more to do with paceline selection than any other single variable.
I’m more than happy to discuss in greater detail with anyone that’s interested.
Sheet Guy
:)