fast scan

[fred4now]

Been doing some paper handicapping in addition to my regular daily plays for the past week or so. Kind of surprised with the results. I have a report that I print that is sort of like the TLC, but all on one line for each horse. Been scanning real fast and the 1's sort of stand out against the rest. Spending no more than about 10 seconds per race as I'm doing all the races for the day and placed a paper bet at any actual odds >=Vbet. Bet up to 3 horses in a race.

Results
527 bets
64 wins
$1054 bet
$1240.10 won

at least half of those I bet 3 contenders
most of the winners were in the $15-$30 range, the highest $57

bet a couple tracks for real over the weekend and had a pretty good time.

[Ken Massa]

Your numbers are very impressive Rick. 1.20 ROI. And it is nice to see you hitting on those longshots! Can you paste a copy of your self-made Access report on here for us to see? I remember you showed it to me in Vegas, would be very interesting for others too.

The theory of the Vbet is that if you bet only those horses who's board odds are higher than their value line (VBET column) than you are always betting into a positive expectation and cannot possibly lose in the long run - amen. For most horseplayers, waiting around for those value plays can be boring as they don't appear that often under 10/1, so they are usually broke from superfectas and p4 before the long-run catches up on the overlay win bets. Kudos to Rick (Fred4Now) for proving that it can work though.

[fred4now]

Thanks Ken, attached is a copy in Word format.

The FOD(fair odds) and BOD(bet odds) are my own line that has gone thru some transformations since you saw it last. Ranking is by nkrat+npscn as I have found that this gives a little better win% and ROI when using a value line. My line will get to break even before scratches using MLO. nVbet seems to work a little better with actual odds.

I think the biggest key is instead of blindly betting the overlays, I narrow down to what I think are the contenders and only bet those if overlaid ala Steve Fierro's book. Sometimes I have 2, sometimes 5.

There is a blank space at the right edge of the report that will show the results and actual odds if present. So for practice I put another piece of paper over the results and do my contender selection and then check to see if any overlays hit. Kind of like doing a crossword puzzle and then looking at the answers. This has really improved my selection process.

[tbrown]

Fred4Now.....
Nive report layout-looks pretty handy.
I always marvel at how many different ways people find to use HTR.
It's like it is the dictionary of horse racing software-all the words are there-you can put them together anyway you like. I could go to the track everyday for two weeks and never handicap the same way twice if I had to.
A report like this one is in my near future....like Saturday!
Thanks for sharing.

[fred4now]

Thanks for the comments. What prompted a report like this is the TLC is too many pages and I went to the track for the first time this summer and didn't want to take a laptop. This way I can print out quite few cards. Interestingly if I print before scratches but stick to my value line anyway without any changes it still does pretty well. Made 3 trips to Vegas this year, borrowed money from the wife to bet, gave her back her money and kept the profit.:D

BTW if you want to put in the results but don't want to see alot of errors if there are no results use this in the control source of a text box, adjust for pla, sho etc.

=IIf([xwin]>0,[xwin],"")

[fred4now]

I tried to upload the actulal db, only 150kb, but the message board doesn't allow .mdb extentions.

It imports the all_hx4.txt file and gives report.

Maybe Webmaster Rick could allow this.

[Rick]

Rick,
Email it to me and I will post it on the website where it can be downloaded.

All these attachments go into a database that I don't have much control over. Its all controled by the software.

[Rick]

download fred4now's mdb - it is in Access97 format

homebased2.com/HTR Cruncher.mdb (http://www.homebased2.com/HTR Cruncher.mdb)

[LOU M.]

Great idea and layout. Do you bet all of the overlays to your bet odds or do you use them for contender selection and go from there?

[Glen]

f4now, are betting just 1 horse (for the most part) or are you sometimes betting 3-4 horses per race?

[hurrikane]

nice work F4N. Glad to see the selections are holding up. I use this (or something similar) when I go to the track. Have trouble using it for spot play though.

So, where do you find these women to bankroll you? :D

[fred4now]

Lou
I select contenders and then bet if overlaid. Betting all overlays would definately be a losing proposition.

Glen
Usually 2 or 3, sometimes 4. Like you I have found 3 or 4 overlays in a race to be profitable.

HK
I don't use this for my spot plays either but made it for going to the track or Vegas. What I use it the most for is practice. Cover the results and handicap the race and then look to see how I did. I seriously spend about 10 seconds on a race.

I also don't mind betting the 5th or 6th horse down the list if I see something I like. The profit is definately in the $10 & up horses.

[Glen]

I'm still chuggin and pluggin away to learn more how to improve the bottom line. Something that I will do w/in the next couple of weeks is create a new odds line chart based on Vi.

Reason being...
In races w/ a Vi of 10 to 25 my top 4 win 67% (top choice 20%)
in ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''38 to 55'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''87% (top choice 38%)

So I need to alter my wagering methods...

[fred4now]

Interesting idea Glen, let us know how it goes. I have been really serious about making a line since I read Steve's book. I am pretty sure that if I used the templates I would do a little better than with vbet, but I just can't help trying to automate things+ sometimes I have 5 or 6 contenders. I will say that I am using my oddsline against mlo every day for plays. Am playing the tracks that have shown profit in the past across most months. If you play mlo >= to my Bod, rKrat <4 and Bod <10 you break even across all tracks with no handicapping before scratches. It is a good start.

[Glen]

Break even is an awsome accomplishment Rick for all qualifiers w/o any handicapping. You need to get you butt over to the next orleans tourney and take your swing at the $100K horse lotto. Just having that advantage will give you the all the tools you need to win...Just gotta make the right decisions and have some luck and you take home $100K.

BTW, the problem that I have w/ Vi you (or anybody else who is utilizing vBET) will not have becasue vBET will take that into consideration.