Some Questions

[jnichols]

1. Why do rEP and rPAC often differ. Aren't they both based on the second call?

2. Ditto for rAP and rPER. I seem to recall reading (in one of the newsletters?) that PER was based on AP.

3. I'd been looking at Fr1-1 Fr2-1 horses before Mr. Massa's latest newletter and found (contrary to expectations) that the best profits came at low odds, where win percentages were unbelievably high. This is probably a quirk of my short samples, so I wonder if anyone with a big database could run the following query:

nCLA 1 or 2
nSURF 1 or 3
Fr1 1
Fr2 1
nAOdd <2

Segregating by sprint/route might also prove interesting.

My results were:

50 Plays
33 Winners
1.39 ROI

thanks,

John Nichols

[Glen]

Mr. Nichols,

WHen I was playing Ev1 plays...I found 2 areas of profit...
1) Very short prices
2) Longhshots

THe middle bracket was not good for the ev1's so I think you are right on. Other important factors as you mentioned are the CLA ranking and the old DOS ACL. I found sprints and routes to be very different and results were track specific.


Re EP/PAC...EP is based on true velocity and PAC is based on PARS. Sometimes it gets a little goofy when comparing various distances like 4.5F, 5.5F, 6.5 and 7F to 6F distances....Generally speaking, the EP will always be more accurate because it measures true velocity (speed of the horse). As one of the books mentions, imagine a speedometer on top of a horses neck...If it says 57.50FPS at 2nd call, imagine that it is moving at 57.5 Miles/hour....Just easier to understand...

Re AP/PER same as above...I could be wrong about the PAR thing though...BTW, if you run test will find AP to more accurate than PER and PER to be more accurate than Cramer Speed Figs...

[hurrikane]

Glen,
just curious...how are you qualifying 'more accurate'?

[Glen]

Win% and ROI
...but as far as more accurate on EP, it is a measurement of actual speed...so that is about as accurate as it gets

[hurrikane]

I took down the stats until I can check with my full db. Be careful there are no -1 in the aOdds field. this will be selected with aODDS < 2 but may pay $20-30.00.

[Bernie]

jnichols,

Here are the results of your query using PL5, major tracks, last 2+ years:

Win% 44.65
ROI -8.46%
2282 plays

As Ken pointed out, FR1 has lost much of its value as more players have been using it. It is only a matter of time before FR1 + FR2 does the same, if it hasn't done so already. Speed ratings were great until Beyer published his books about them. Same thing applies here. This is a major reason why only a fraction of spot plays hold up after development - you're searching for what worked well in the past, but others may have already caught on to it. Your best chance of gaining and keeping an edge is to find something that few others are doing and then keep quiet about it - except you can email me about it if you wish. ;)

[Glen]

Originally posted by Bernie
As Ken pointed out, FR1 has lost much of its value as more players have been using it. It is only a matter of time before FR1 + FR2 does the same, if it hasn't done so already.

Yeah, in an effort to be one step a head of the curve I have been trying to learn other methods of handicapping. So far so good...The bottom line in a parimutual game, there will always be winning situations for the handicapper. When all the money shifts to certain angles, it creates opportunities in other areas...A win/win situation...

[Ken Massa]

Good discussion on the profits, i added my 2 cents in the "K" thread / 'Selections' Forum.

Glen had it right regarding the PER vs A/P. The PER (and PACe) is 'scaled' so that all ratings are held to a common denominator and instantly comparable. You might find a PER of 100 for a horse that ran 4.5D at DED and the same 100 for a horse that ran 10.0T at SA. This means they have completed the distance in an A/P that is standard for 100 level horses at that track and distance. But look at the A/P vel ratings for those same two and there is nothing similar about them. The DED horse would show higher fps ratings only because its race was run in much faster real-time velocity.

What would happen if two these faced off? Depends on the circumstances. Send that DED horse to SA grass and he loses by 100 lengths. But ship the SA horse to Delta for 4.5 quick ones and he won't even get out of the gate before his rival crosses the wire. This an extreme example, but every race features similar give and take regarding the figures.