Open Call for New Trainer Stats Ideas

[RonTiller]

OK, I'll open up this can of worms. Glen, in the thread about Post Times, put up a wish list of further trainer stats he would like to see. I'll bite. If anybody has any ideas about what trainer or jockey stats you would LIKE to see but are not currently on the Trainer Statistics Report, let them spew forth.

Caveat #1: Please, no fishing expeditions. If you have some degree of confidence that a particular statistic would be helpful, based on your experience, ok. Guesses about what OUGHT to be really good, if only we had it, are less helpful.

Caveat #2: I make no promises whatsoever that I will calculate and use everything (or anything) people post. I will not do Trainers with hispanic jockeys on tuesday carrying 115 pounds (oops, I let that gem slip out!). In addition, some ideas may involve more work than others or may involve a lot of time to set up because of peculiarities of our database.

Otherwise, now is your chance to be heard (that vox populi thing). I will thoughtfully peruse all responses and let you know my decision. The best suggestion wins a free drink at the next Stardust seminar. (Legal issues: Any unredeemed free drinks become the sole property of Tommy C. or one of his representatives.)

Ron Tiller
HDW

[hurrikane]

oh boy..here we go. How about an exporter so Mikee can keep the rest of his hair. :D

[Bruce]

I think I know the answer to this...but here goes anyway

Anyone to combine stats. E.g. Bill Mott off a 120+ layoff with drop in class.

It's long been my feeling that the single-factor stats have a limited use. (Yes, if
Joe Blow is 0-30 off a 30+ day layoff, that's significant). But most times, a
real pattern needs a few factors (but not too many of course) like: horse off a
layoff in sprints with Chavez aboard. (a "go" jockey)

Other than that, for single-factors how about with certain owners?


Bruce

[hurrikane]

Ok...so on a serious note.
I"ve been pulling info by track. you can only do with the big barns so it may get to watered down to do all trainers.
How about how trainers do when they pick up a horse but not on a claim.
Not sure how you would do this but would be nice to see how trainers did at the start last meet when this meet starts. Again though..this may not be agreeable with a static report like you make Ron.
I know some trainers (smaller ones) train horses for the bigger boys. Anyway to unearth that info?

How about infractions/suspensions and ...oh..never mind. :D

[hurrikane]

How about their performance by day of the week.

actually..a groom report would be great...but unreasonable I suppose.

[mike]

I don't know if this is possible. I used to look in DRF for workout patterns for various trainers that would indicate the trainer's intent regarding today's race. The works might include races. The better trainers usually showed some sort of pattern like 30+ layoff then a series of workouts and/or races with about 5 to 10 days between each race or work. The work out pattern after a layoff indicated to me either a positive or negative intent. The trainer was looking for a spot or is he trying to sell the horse. If there was a way of showing some sort of pattern or a lack of consistant pattern in the database, this would be very helpfull to me.

This was hard to explain and I realize some trainers hide the works, but it still might have some value. I hope this was understandable.

[LOU M.]

Ron, thanks for this opportunity,here goes.Make the time limit 2 years instead of one. More stability of the numbers. Add a second set of results for the applicable stats for the specific track being looked at. Additional categories: 2nd race BX BO,race patterns S S R, S R S,etc.1-2-3 race of meet,2nd and 3rd career race , 2nd career route 2nd and 3rd career turf start( not maiden). Once again Ron thank you.

[Rick]

Something that might work for Mike's suggestion; how about total furlongs run in races and workouts in past 30 days.

That still runs against all those unpublished works.

[DaveT]

I think that consistent activity (one component of trainer intent) is critical and helps to determine if a trainer is serious about trying to win today. My idea is to add the # of activites in the last 15 and last 30 days. Condition is very important and if a trainer has his horse on the track numerous times tells us something. I use this now, whether it is in the software or not and it helps me. Just my two cents.

DaveT

[Ken Massa]

Ron please add the age and weight of the trainer to the report

Big fat old trainers show positive ROI, especially in Kentucky

[Glen]

Hi Ron, sorry if I open up a can of worms for you but I hope this makes us all better handicappers and creates a better product so users and providers can benefit.

Things I would find useful.
>>>Sprint-Sprint-Route (when I was using Bris before HTR, there were some good stats on this move)
>>>Non Layoff horse (ie Race w/ in 30 days and 2 workouts)
In my small dB I queried the above and guys like Dallas Keen and Cole Norman win around 33% w/ 1.30 to 1.78 ROI's. But a guy like Asmussen hits only 20% w/ a -31% ROI.

IMHO the only source that has more detailed trainer info is Thorograph. Below is a sample of what they provide:

Trainer Profile - HARRINGTON, MIKE,
Category Starts Wins Win% ITM ITM% ROI
Overall ........................................... 907 102 11.2 302 33.3 2.07
4-1 or less .................................... 192 47 24.5 115 59.9 1.56
over 4-1 to 10-1 ........................... 241 29 12.0 93 38.6 1.87
over 10-1 ..................................... 474 26 5.5 94 19.8 2.38
Last 90 days .................................... 57 10 17.5 23 40.4 1.71
Sprints ........................................... 687 81 11.8 231 33.6 1.87
Dirt (inc off tracks) ......................... 768 89 11.6 265 34.5 1.95
Off tracks (Dirt) ................................ 36 8 22.2 15 41.7 4.73
Colts/Geldings ............................... 591 69 11.7 193 32.7 1.88
MCL............................................... 288 39 13.5 87 30.2 2.44
3-y-o .............................................. 424 50 11.8 138 32.5 2.28
Last race 10 days and under ........... 23 4 17.4 12 52.2 5.41
Last race 11-29 days ..................... 522 57 10.9 176 33.7 1.83
Last race 30-89 days ..................... 169 20 11.8 61 36.1 2.01
Last race 90+ days .......................... 78 10 12.8 19 24.4 2.59
2nd race off layoff ............................ 50 8 16.0 20 40.0 2.86
1st time out 3-y-o+ (MCL)................ 22 1 4.5 3 13.6 1.31
1st time out mdn 4-1 or less ............ 16 3 18.8 11 68.8 1.39
1st time out over 4-1 to 10-1............ 23 5 21.7 11 47.8 3.71
1st time out over 10-1...................... 59 3 5.1 11 18.6 2.51
2nd time out mdn 3-y-o+ ................. 33 2 6.1 2 6.1 1.16
2nd time out mdn 4-1 or less........... 21 8 38.1 13 61.9 2.50
2nd time out mdn over 4-1 to 10-1 .. 16 1 6.3 7 43.8 0.94
2nd time out mdn over 10-1............. 42 1 2.4 3 7.1 0.73
1st race after trainer change............ 24 1 4.2 2 8.3 1.80
Turf to Dirt........................................ 55 6 10.9 23 41.8 1.24
In claimers, down in class.............. 210 29 13.8 87 41.4 2.38
In claimers, up in class .................... 64 6 9.4 19 29.7 1.71
Route to Sprint ................................. 63 4 6.3 21 33.3 1.20
1st time Lasix................................... 10 2 20.0 3 30.0 6.30
2nd time Lasix (in a row) ................. 15 1 6.7 4 26.7 0.24
1st time blinkers............................... 37 6 16.2 15 40.5 2.32
Adding bandages............................. 41 2 4.9 11 26.8 0.95
Removing bandages........................ 21 1 4.8 4 19.0 0.81


Thanks for your time.

[Cliff]

Ron,

Thanks for the hard work!

Was wondering, is there any data out there on the type of shoe used? What about shadow rolls? Probably not on either.

Thanks,
Cliff

[delayjf]

Ron,

How about a "switched to" report for the Jockeys. Or bad race second call for jockeys. These could be tied into other trainer stats.

Make sure when computing stats like 2nd layoff or 2nd off claim, that the first race under these conditions was non- competitive. Reason: If a trainer was trying to win 1st off a layoff or 1st off a claim (possibly at high odds) but lost by a nose, that negates the 2nd race in that catagory as the trainer has "tipped his hand". Handicappers can evaluate the horse based on his narrow lost. ( now at lower odds).

Odds drop from last race to race in question. Again could be combined with other factors like layoffs.

Could go on but I'll stop here.

[EE26]

Last start in under 10 days or maybe 7 days win % similar to Thorograph.

[Neil]

Hi, Ron. Thanks for asking. My trainer Christmas wish list:

1. series, such as sprint-route-sprint or route-sprint-route (with no break in training)
2. turf sprint, turf route
3. 2nd turf or dirt start after surface change (again, with no break in training)
4. as someone else has suggested, "unusual" workouts. And I don't know how to specify this, but, for example, it has been brought to my attention that when Eddie Plesa, Jr. works a horse for 8f, that shows positive intent - if not, not. Anyway, I usually note those horses - and have wondered about patterns for other trainers. Like, how about 4f+ A works?

Merry Christmas, everyone!

Neil

[tomcat]

Hi Ron, I'm sure someone has it here, but I'm interested in trainer stats by the track. For example Lake is a very good trainer over all, but not at Keeneland. Some trainers are good in KY but not other places, and visa versa.
A few trainers have been very good with certain breeds...because the owners send their horse to them.
I know you can't do it, but I would still like the wagers available for each race.

Thanks for allowing us to ask.

[hurrikane]

Ron, wondering if you can elaborate you your trainer stats you have now. At times I have run queries and come up with dramatically different results than you show in your reports.
I use your reports and think they are great. Just curious if you could lay out the parameters in a nutshell.

Thanks

[jnichols]

I'd like to see layoff stats broken down by time away (i.e. 45-90 days, 90-180, 180+). In my opinion it makes no sense at all to lump horses that have been away for 2 months with those coming off (say) 9 month layoffs.

-- John Nichols

[MtKen]

How about something completely different? Probably can't do F1 #1 with trainers but how about with running style or Quiren pts?

[Glen]

Unfortunatley, HDW doesn't keep track of HTR data like Fr1, K1 and some of our factors. So they can't deliver trainer data associated with that. Otherwise we might have some good info there.

What would be pretty effective in my opinion is how jockeys do on the surf/distance/tracks.

For example, John Jacinto was a fair to spare jockey at LS. But down in HOU and RET he is the Jerry Bailey of TX racing.

Pincay is a 12% jock on turf w/ a spare ROI. 20% in sprints w/ solid ROI and 14% in dirt routes.

Migliore 11% sprint, 21% route, 11% turf

Anthony Lovato was about a 30% jock at LS, then an 8% jock at HOL....

[LOU M.]

Ditto the jockey stats. Even if it's generic such as dirt-sprint, dirt-route, turf-sprint,turf-route.