Glen
11th June 2001, 08:05.25 AM
Below is a response to Cliff's post in the selections area. Question: How do you guys handicap w/ HTR not using a dB?
Cliff,
I haven't played in an NTRA event but I believe that the host track gets to set the rules. You may want to contact LS to find out the rules. I know that sounds stupid, but I made the mistake of attending a tournament at LS thinking it was just Win/Place when it was Win and Exactas. Was not prepared for that at all.
A couple of suggestions or at least this is what I normally do. It is a lot of steps but usually quick and painless.
1) Track Pro
(a) What % is going wire to wire? What % must be in top 3 @ 1st call?
(b) Post Position: Anything out of the norm? Sometimes you may find 40% winners come from post 1 and 2 and only 10% from outside. Most of the time nothing.
2) Modeler
(a) What % is the MLO winning? If only 20% or so, obviously don't play it. Some conditions the MLO fav is winning 40% plus. In matter of fact there is a condition at HOL where it is winning something like 79%!!!
(b) What other factors (HTR, PSCAN, Prb%) look promising/really bad?
(c) Longshots-Norm is to have 25% of the races won by longshots. It is above or below that? If above, where are the longshots coming from? Ev1? FX? Jock? CLA? ACL? TRN?
(d) RS-What running styles have a good/bad IV and ROI?
(e) PSCAN Diff- Very important. Most tracks will have 85% of winners coming from PSCAN Dif<=2.9 or 3.9. Very very strong factor!
3) Tomcat Report
(a) Anything stand out? Like jock switch, trainer claim, class drop? Lone E? Too many E's?
4) Velocity Screen
(a) Ev1 or Ep1 have a big advantage? Too many horses w/ similar early pace figs?
5) Impact
(a) ESD horse stand out? Running style matchups look promising?
6) Trainer Report
(a) Anything just jump off the page. Normally not.
7) PRAT
(a) Look for form cycles. Ala The Sheets style voodoo capping.
8) Past performance screen
(a) To verify selection.
9) Other
(a) Stuff like Quinn theory rubbish/general handicapping. i.e. improving 3yr old vs. older losers...or Trainer kicking butt at the meet?
Ok, sounds like a lot of time but only takes a few minutes. Mostly taking quick glances at most of the screens (10 seconds or so) to see if anything catches the eye. 80% of the time, nothing really jumps out so that's why I look at all those crazy screens...My mama told me I might go blind from "handling up on my business" but I think I'm going to go blind from staring at all these lovely screens...
Cliff,
I haven't played in an NTRA event but I believe that the host track gets to set the rules. You may want to contact LS to find out the rules. I know that sounds stupid, but I made the mistake of attending a tournament at LS thinking it was just Win/Place when it was Win and Exactas. Was not prepared for that at all.
A couple of suggestions or at least this is what I normally do. It is a lot of steps but usually quick and painless.
1) Track Pro
(a) What % is going wire to wire? What % must be in top 3 @ 1st call?
(b) Post Position: Anything out of the norm? Sometimes you may find 40% winners come from post 1 and 2 and only 10% from outside. Most of the time nothing.
2) Modeler
(a) What % is the MLO winning? If only 20% or so, obviously don't play it. Some conditions the MLO fav is winning 40% plus. In matter of fact there is a condition at HOL where it is winning something like 79%!!!
(b) What other factors (HTR, PSCAN, Prb%) look promising/really bad?
(c) Longshots-Norm is to have 25% of the races won by longshots. It is above or below that? If above, where are the longshots coming from? Ev1? FX? Jock? CLA? ACL? TRN?
(d) RS-What running styles have a good/bad IV and ROI?
(e) PSCAN Diff- Very important. Most tracks will have 85% of winners coming from PSCAN Dif<=2.9 or 3.9. Very very strong factor!
3) Tomcat Report
(a) Anything stand out? Like jock switch, trainer claim, class drop? Lone E? Too many E's?
4) Velocity Screen
(a) Ev1 or Ep1 have a big advantage? Too many horses w/ similar early pace figs?
5) Impact
(a) ESD horse stand out? Running style matchups look promising?
6) Trainer Report
(a) Anything just jump off the page. Normally not.
7) PRAT
(a) Look for form cycles. Ala The Sheets style voodoo capping.
8) Past performance screen
(a) To verify selection.
9) Other
(a) Stuff like Quinn theory rubbish/general handicapping. i.e. improving 3yr old vs. older losers...or Trainer kicking butt at the meet?
Ok, sounds like a lot of time but only takes a few minutes. Mostly taking quick glances at most of the screens (10 seconds or so) to see if anything catches the eye. 80% of the time, nothing really jumps out so that's why I look at all those crazy screens...My mama told me I might go blind from "handling up on my business" but I think I'm going to go blind from staring at all these lovely screens...