PL1 versus PL5 for Fr1

[Bernie]

I used to wonder which paceline was best for using Fr 1. So when I set up my HX4 table, I used PL5. My MSA table uses PL1. Here are the results for Fr 1 rank 1 over 106,000 of the same races on mostly major tracks:

PL1
19.0% wins
-10.14 ROI

PL5
18.3% wins
-11.7% ROI

[Ken Massa]

Thanks for your insight Bernie. It is unlikely there is another handicapping factor on the planet that can exceed your unfiltered results for Fr1. An ROI in the 0.90 range is unheard of when testing the "all burger" (every race) on a single factor with no apparent stipulations on the race types.

Consider testing Fr1 and PL modes with a filter though =

Dirt races 5.5 - 9 furlongs
Non-maidens
Purse > 5000 (any track)

My results are about a 0.92 ROI with 50,000 race samples on that.

Grass races produce very low Fr1 results and although you can hit some bombs on the sod, it is better not to mix turf and dirt because the race dynamics are undeniably different.

Maidens and grass and odd distances and cheap races have a large percentage of unknown or unfit horses involved. FTS, layoffs, foreign shippers, etc. should be kept out of the mix as much as possible to give the sample a more balanced test of its effectiveness on Fr1. Many maiden events have just one or two horses with running lines and those races will distort reality considerably when tested for velocity rankings.

A/P is a better meaure of PL comparison. We have long known that Fr1 produces its biggest longshots with PL-1, but the other modes can be much more effective in overall prediction with velocity numbers. PL-1 is amazing for all its obvious flaws though!

[tomcat]

I would add filter by track. Certain tracks do not do well with F1. Turfway has a hump that horses go over when they cross onto the main track that derails a lot of horses. Some Turfway players refuse to play rail + F1 in the longer sprints, unless there is a big F1 disarity.

[Bruce]

Has anyone every done a filter by track for PL-1/FR-1?? I'd be interested in seeing it.
Also, sprints vs. routes? (I recall they weren't all that different)

How amazing would it be to get an ROI of 0.95 or so on that one factor! Problem is with such longshots, the more you handicap sometimes you more you lose. You get long prices because the horses look bad.

bruce